Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular variable, that is the probability of that variable being in the forecast model. A novel aspect of the paper is the discussion of group-wise inclusion probabilities, which helps to address the empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion probabilities and weights for Bayesian forecast combination. The empirical results for euro area data show that monetary aggregates and non-monetary indicators together play an important role for forecasting inflation, whereas the isolated information content of both groups is limited. Forecast combination can only partly outperform single-indicator benchmark models. --inflation forecasting,monetary indicators,Bayesian Model Averaging,inclusion probability

Household's portfolio structure in Germany - analysis of financial accounts data 1959-2009

Based on a Financial Almost Ideal Demand System (FAIDS), this paper investigates the wealth structure of German households. The long-run wealth elasticities and interestrate elasticities were calculated using a unique new quarterly financial accounts macrodata set which covers the period from 1959 to 2009 and contains a portfolio of eight different financial assets. Descriptive analysis shows that all financial assets were characterized by substantial volatility of their weight in the portfolio of households. We found that portfolio shifts in the long run are determined significantly by changes in interest rates. The estimated model provides evidence that currency (and transferable deposits) is mainly a substitute for other assets and time deposits are typically a complement. Wealth elasticity is for most assets around unity. JEL Classification: E21, G11, C32financial wealth, household, portfolio structure

How effective are automatic stabilisers? Theory and empirical results for Germany and other OECD countries

Cyclically induced changes in taxes and government expenditures which tend to stabilise aggregate output are called automatic stabilisers. Using a small macro model, this paper reviews alternative methods of measuring the smoothing power of automatic stabilisers and discusses their relationship to the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. Based on simulation exercises with the macroeconometric multi-country model of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the empirical part of the paper presents estimates of the smoothing power of automatic stabilisers for Germany and some other OECD countries. The results for Germany suggest that in the first year 15 to 20 per cent of an exogenous demand shock are absorbed by the automatic stabilisers. Similar results are obtained for France, Italy, the Netherlands, UK, Canada and the US. --Fiscal policy,automatic stabilisers,smoothing power,compensation method

Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis

Distinguishing pure supply effects from other determinants of price and quantity in the market for loans is a notoriously difficult problem. Using German data, we employ Bayesian vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions on the impulse response functions in order to enquire the role of loan supply and monetary policy shocks for the dynamics of loans to non-financial corporations. For the three quarters following the Lehman collapse, we find very strong negative loan supply shocks, while monetary policy was essentially neutral. Nevertheless, the historical decomposition shows a cumulated negative impact of loan supply shocks and monetary policy shocks on loans to non-financial corporations, due to the lagged effects of past loan supply and monetary policy shocks. However, these negative effects on loans to non-financial corporations are overcompensated by positive other shocks, which implies that loans developed more favorably than implied by the model, over the past few quarters. --Loan supply,Bayesian VAR,sign restrictions

Simple interest rate rules with a role for money

The paper analyses the performance of simple interest rate rules which feature a response to noisy observations of inflation, output and money growth. The analysis is based on a small empirical model of the hybrid New Keynesian type which has been estimated on euro area data by Stracca (2007). To assess the magnitude of the measurement problems regarding the feedback variables, we draw upon the real-time data set for Germany compiled by Gerberding et al. (2004). We find that interest rate rules which include a response to money growth outperform both Taylor-type rules and speed limit policies once real-time output gap uncertainty is accounted for. One reason is that targeting money growth introduces history dependence into the policy rule which is desirable when private agents are forward-looking. The second reason is that money growth contains information on the "true" growth rate of output which can only be measured imperfectly. --Monetary policy rules,euro area,data uncertainty

Absence of Adiponutrin (PNPLA3) and Monoacylglycerol Lipase Synergistically Increases Weight Gain and Aggravates Steatohepatitis in Mice

Altered lipid metabolic pathways including hydrolysis of triglycerides are key players in the pathogenesis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Whether adiponutrin (patatin-like phospholipase domain containing protein-3-PNPLA3) and monoacylglycerol lipase (MGL) synergistically contribute to disease progression remains unclear. We generated double knockout (DKO) mice lacking both Mgl and Pnpla3; DKO mice were compared to Mgl-/- after a challenge by high-fat diet (HFD) for 12 weeks to induce steatosis. Serum biochemistry, liver transaminases as well as histology were analyzed. Fatty acid (FA) profiling was assessed in liver and adipose tissue by gas chromatography. Markers of inflammation and lipid metabolism were analyzed. Bone marrow derived macrophages (BMDMs) were isolated and treated with oleic acid. Combined deficiency of Mgl and Pnpla3 resulted in weight gain on a chow diet; when challenged by HFD, DKO mice showed increased hepatic FA synthesis and diminished beta-oxidation compared to Mgl-/-.DKO mice exhibited more pronounced hepatic steatosis with inflammation and recruitment of immune cells to the liver associated with accumulation of saturated FAs. Primary BMDMs isolated from the DKO mice showed increased inflammatory activities, which could be reversed by oleic acid supplementation. Pnpla3 deficiency aggravates the effects of Mgl deletion on steatosis and inflammation in the liver under HFD challenge

Monoacylglycerol Lipase Inhibition Protects From Liver Injury in Mouse Models of Sclerosing Cholangitis

Background and Aims Monoacylglycerol lipase (MGL) is the last enzymatic step in triglyceride degradation, hydrolyzing monoglycerides into glycerol and fatty acids (FAs) and converting 2-arachidonoylglycerol into arachidonic acid, thus providing ligands for nuclear receptors as key regulators of hepatic bile acid (BA)/lipid metabolism and inflammation. We aimed to explore the role of MGL in the development of cholestatic liver and bile duct injury in mouse models of sclerosing cholangitis, a disease so far lacking effective pharmacological therapy. Approach and Results To this aim we analyzed the effects of 3,5-diethoxycarbonyl-1,4-dihydrocollidine (DDC) feeding to induce sclerosing cholangitis in wild-type (WT) and knockout (MGL(-/-)) mice and tested pharmacological inhibition with JZL184 in the multidrug resistance protein 2 knockout (Mdr2(-/-)) mouse model of sclerosing cholangitis. Cholestatic liver injury and fibrosis were assessed by serum biochemistry, liver histology, gene expression, and western blot characterization of BA and FA synthesis/transport. Moreover, intestinal FAs and fecal microbiome were analyzed. Transfection and silencing were performed in Caco2 cells. MGL(-/-) mice were protected from DDC-induced biliary fibrosis and inflammation with reduced serum liver enzymes and increased FA/BA metabolism and beta-oxidation. Notably, pharmacological (JZL184) inhibition of MGL ameliorated cholestatic injury in DDC-fed WT mice and protected Mdr2(-/-) mice from spontaneous liver injury, with improved liver enzymes, inflammation, and biliary fibrosis. In vitro experiments confirmed that silencing of MGL decreases prostaglandin E-2 accumulation in the intestine and up-regulates peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors alpha and gamma activity, thus reducing inflammation. Conclusions Collectively, our study unravels MGL as a metabolic target, demonstrating that MGL inhibition may be considered as potential therapy for sclerosing cholangitis

Hepatocyte-specific deletion of adipose triglyceride lipase (adipose triglyceride lipase/patatin-like phospholipase domain containing 2) ameliorates dietary induced steatohepatitis in mice

Background and Aims: Increased fatty acid (FA) flux from adipose tissue to the liver contributes to the development of NAFLD. Because free FAs are key lipotoxic triggers accelerating disease progression, inhibiting adipose triglyceride lipase (ATGL)/patatin-like phospholipase domain containing 2 (PNPLA2), the main enzyme driving lipolysis, may attenuate steatohepatitis. Approach and Results: Hepatocyte-specific ATGL knockout (ATGL LKO) mice were challenged with methionine-choline–deficient (MCD) or high-fat high-carbohydrate (HFHC) diet. Serum biochemistry, hepatic lipid content and liver histology were assessed. Mechanistically, hepatic gene and protein expression of lipid metabolism, inflammation, fibrosis, apoptosis, and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress markers were investigated. DNA binding activity for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) α and PPARδ was measured. After short hairpin RNA–mediated ATGL knockdown, HepG2 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or oleic acid:palmitic acid 2:1 (OP21) to explore the direct role of ATGL in inflammation in vitro. On MCD and HFHC challenge, ATGL LKO mice showed reduced PPARα and increased PPARδ DNA binding activity when compared with challenged wild-type (WT) mice. Despite histologically and biochemically pronounced hepatic steatosis, dietary-challenged ATGL LKO mice showed lower hepatic inflammation, reflected by the reduced number of Galectin3/MAC-2 and myeloperoxidase-positive cells and low mRNA expression levels of inflammatory markers (such as IL-1β and F4/80) when compared with WT mice. In line with this, protein levels of the ER stress markers protein kinase R–like endoplasmic reticulum kinase and inositol-requiring enzyme 1α were reduced in ATGL LKO mice fed with MCD diet. Accordingly, pretreatment of LPS-treated HepG2 cells with the PPARδ agonist GW0742 suppressed mRNA expression of inflammatory markers. Additionally, ATGL knockdown in HepG2 cells attenuated LPS/OP21-induced expression of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines such as chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 5, chemokine (C-C motif) ligand (Ccl) 2, and Ccl5. Conclusions: Low hepatic lipolysis and increased PPARδ activity in ATGL/PNPLA2 deficiency may counteract hepatic inflammation and ER stress despite increased steatosis. Therefore, lowering hepatocyte lipolysis through ATGL inhibition represents a promising therapeutic strategy for the treatment of steatohepatitis

An effective activation method for industrially produced TiFeMn powder for hydrogen storage

This work proposes an effective thermal activation method with low technical effort for industrially produced titanium-iron-manganese powders (TiFeMn) for hydrogen storage. In this context, the influence of temperature and particle size of TiFeMn on the activation process is systematically studied. The results obtained from this investigation suggest that the activation of the TiFeMn material at temperatures as low as 50 °C is already possible, with a combination of “Dynamic” and “Static” routines, and that an increase to 90 °C strongly reduces the incubation time for activation, i.e. the incubation time of the sample with the two routines at 90 °C is about 0.84 h, while ∼ 277 h is required for the sample treated at 50 °C in both “Dynamic” and “Static” sequences. Selecting TiFeMn particles of larger size also leads to significant improvements in the activation performance of the investigated material. The proposed activation routine makes it possible to overcome the oxide layer existing on the compound surface, which acts as a diffusion barrier for the hydrogen atoms. This activation method induces further cracks and defects in the powder granules, generating new surfaces for hydrogen absorption with greater frequency, and thus leading to faster sorption kinetics in the subsequent absorption-desorption cycles

Relations between lipoprotein(a) concentrations, LPA genetic variants, and the risk of mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease: a molecular and genetic association study

Background: Lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma are associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Whether lipoprotein(a) concentrations or LPA genetic variants predict long-term mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease remains less clear. Methods: We obtained data from 3313 patients with established coronary heart disease in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. We tested associations of tertiles of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma and two LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms ([SNPs] rs10455872 and rs3798220) with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality by Cox regression analysis and with severity of disease by generalised linear modelling, with and without adjustment for age, sex, diabetes diagnosis, systolic blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, LDL-cholesterol concentration, and use of lipid-lowering therapy. Results for plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were validated in five independent studies involving 10 195 patients with established coronary heart disease. Results for genetic associations were replicated through large-scale collaborative analysis in the GENIUS-CHD consortium, comprising 106 353 patients with established coronary heart disease and 19 332 deaths in 22 studies or cohorts. Findings: The median follow-up was 9·9 years. Increased severity of coronary heart disease was associated with lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma in the highest tertile (adjusted hazard radio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·14–1·83) and the presence of either LPA SNP (1·88, 1·40–2·53). No associations were found in LURIC with all-cause mortality (highest tertile of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma 0·95, 0·81–1·11 and either LPA SNP 1·10, 0·92–1·31) or cardiovascular mortality (0·99, 0·81–1·2 and 1·13, 0·90–1·40, respectively) or in the validation studies. Interpretation: In patients with prevalent coronary heart disease, lipoprotein(a) concentrations and genetic variants showed no associations with mortality. We conclude that these variables are not useful risk factors to measure to predict progression to death after coronary heart disease is established. Funding: Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technical Development (AtheroRemo and RiskyCAD), INTERREG IV Oberrhein Programme, Deutsche Nierenstiftung, Else-Kroener Fresenius Foundation, Deutsche Stiftung für Herzforschung, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Saarland University, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Willy Robert Pitzer Foundation, and Waldburg-Zeil Clinics Isny