The Geographic Synchrony of Seasonal Influenza: A Waves across Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND: As observed during the 2009 pandemic, a novel influenza virus can spread globally before the epidemic peaks locally. As consistencies in the relative timing and direction of spread could form the basis for an early alert system, the objectives of this study were to use the case-based reporting system for laboratory confirmed influenza from the Canadian FluWatch surveillance program to identify the geographic scale at which spatial synchrony exists and then to describe the geographic patterns of influenza A virus across Canada and in relationship to activity in the United States (US). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Weekly laboratory confirmations for influenza A were obtained from the Canadian FluWatch and the US FluView surveillance programs from 1997/98 to 2006/07. For the six seasons where at least 80% of the specimens were antigenically similar, we identified the epidemic midpoint of the local/regional/provincial epidemics and analyzed trends in the direction of spread. In three out of the six seasons, the epidemic appeared first in Canada. Regional epidemics were more closely synchronized across the US (3-5 weeks) compared to Canada (5-13 weeks), with a slight gradient in timing from the southwest regions in the US to northeast regions of Canada and the US. Cities, as well as rural areas within provinces, usually peaked within a couple of weeks of each other. The anticipated delay in peak activity between large cities and rural areas was not observed. In some mixed influenza A seasons, lack of synchronization sub-provincially was evident. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: As mixing between regions appears to be too weak to force a consistency in the direction and timing of spread, local laboratory-based surveillance is needed to accurately assess the level of influenza activity in the community. In comparison, mixing between urban communities and adjacent rural areas, and between some communities, may be sufficient to force synchronization

Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.</p

Estimating Sensitivity of Laboratory Testing for Influenza in Canada through Modelling

Background: The weekly proportion of laboratory tests that are positive for influenza is used in public health surveillance systems to identify periods of influenza activity. We aimed to estimate the sensitivity of influenza testing in Canada based on results of a national respiratory virus surveillance system. Methods and Findings: The weekly number of influenza-negative tests from 1999 to 2006 was modelled as a function of laboratory-confirmed positive tests for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus and parainfluenza viruses, seasonality, and trend using Poisson regression. Sensitivity was calculated as the number of influenza positive tests divided by the number of influenza positive tests plus the model-estimated number of false negative tests. The sensitivity of influenza testing was estimated to be 33 % (95%CI 32–34%), varying from 30–40 % depending on the season and region. Conclusions: The estimated sensitivity of influenza tests reported to this national laboratory surveillance system is considerably less than reported test characteristics for most laboratory tests. A number of factors may explain this difference, including sample quality and specimen procurement issues as well as test characteristics. Improved diagnosis would permit better estimation of the burden of influenza

Time in treatment: examining mental illness trajectories across inpatient psychiatric treatment

Early discharge or reduced length of stay for inpatient psychiatric patients is related to increased readmission rates and worse clinical outcomes including increased risk for suicide. Trajectories of mental illness outcomes have been identified as an important method for predicting the optimal length of stay but the distinguishing factors that separate trajectories remain unclear. We sought to identify the distinct classes of patients who demonstrated similar trajectories of mental illness over the course of inpatient treatment, and we explore the patient characteristics associated with these mental illness trajectories. We used data (N = 3406) from an inpatient psychiatric hospital with intermediate lengths of stay. Using growth mixture modeling, latent mental illness scores were derived from six mental illness indicators: psychological flexibility, emotion regulation problems, anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and disability. The patients were grouped into three distinct trajectory classes: (1) High-Risk, Rapid Improvement (HR-RI); (2) Low-Risk, Gradual Improvement (LR-GI); and (3) High-Risk, Gradual Improvement (HR-GI). The HR-GI was significantly younger than the other two classes. The HR-GI had significantly more female patients than males, while the LR-GI had more male patients than females. Our findings indicated that younger females had more severe mental illness at admission and only gradual improvement during the inpatient treatment period, and they remained in treatment for longer lengths of stay, than older males

Comparison of the Antiseptic Efficacy of Tissue-Tolerable Plasma and an Octenidine Hydrochloride-Based Wound Antiseptic on Human Skin

Colonization and infection of wounds represent a major reason for the impairment of tissue repair. Recently, it has been reported that tissue-tolerable plasma (TTP) is highly efficient in the reduction of the bacterial load of the skin. In the present study, the antiseptic efficacy of TTP was compared to that of octenidine hydrochloride with 2-phenoxyethanol. Both antiseptic methods proved to be highly efficient. Cutaneous treatment of the skin with octenidine hydrochloride and 2-phenoxyethanol leads to a 99% elimination of the bacteria, and 74% elimination is achieved by TTP treatment. Technical challenges with an early prototype TTP device could be held responsible for the slightly reduced antiseptic properties of TTP, compared to a standard antiseptic solution, since the manual treatment of the skin surface with a small beam of the TTP device might have led to an incomplete coverage of the treated area

Immediate reexploration for the perioperative neurologic event after carotid endarterectomy: Is it worthwhile?

AbstractPurpose: When managing a new neurologic deficit after carotid endarterectomy (CEA), the surgeon is often preoccupied with determining the cause of the problem, requesting diagnostics tests, and deciding whether the patient should be surgically reexplored. The goal of this study was to analyze a series of perioperative neurologic events and to determine if careful analysis of their timing and mechanisms can predict which cases are likely to improve with reoperation. Methods: A review of 2024 CEAs performed from 1985 to 1997 revealed 38 patients who manifested a neurologic deficit in the perioperative period (1.9%). These cases form the focus of this analysis. Results: The causes of the events included intraoperative clamping ischemia in 5 patients (13.2%); thromboembolic events in 24 (63.2%); intracerebral hemorrhage in 5 (13.2%); and deficits unrelated to the operated artery in 4 (10.5%). Neurologic events manifesting in the first 24 hours after surgery were significantly more likely to be caused by thromboembolic events than by other causes of stroke (88.0% vs 12.0%, P <.002); deficits manifesting after the first 24 hours were significantly more likely to be related to other causes. Of 25 deficits manifesting in the first 24 hours after surgery, 18 underwent immediate surgical reexploration. Intraluminal thrombus was noted in 15 of the 18 reexplorations (83.3%); any technical defects were corrected. After the 18 reexplorations, in 12 cases there was either complete resolution of or significant improvement in the neurologic deficit that had been present (66.7%). Conclusions: Careful analysis of the timing and presentation of perioperative neurologic events after CEA can predict which cases are likely to improve with reoperation. Neurologic deficits that present during the first 24 hours after CEA are likely to be related to intraluminal thrombus formation and embolization. Unless another etiology for stroke has clearly been established, we think immediate reexploration of the artery without other confirmatory tests is mandatory to remove the embolic source and correct any technical problems. This will likely improve the neurologic outcome in these patients, because an uncorrected situation would lead to continued embolization and compromise. (J Vasc Surg 2000;32:1062-70.

Critical Limb Ischemia

Critical limb ischemia (CLI), defined as chronic ischemic rest pain, ulcers, or gangrene attributable to objectively proven arterial occlusive disease, is the most advanced form of peripheral arterial disease. Traditionally, open surgical bypass was the only effective treatment strategy for limb revascularization in this patient population. However, during the past decade, the introduction and evolution of endovascular procedures have significantly increased treatment options. In a certain subset of patients for whom either surgical or endovascular revascularization may not be appropriate, primary amputation remains a third treatment option. Definitive high-level evidence on which to base treatment decisions, with an emphasis on clinical and cost effectiveness, is still lacking. Treatment decisions in CLI are individualized, based on life expectancy, functional status, anatomy of the arterial occlusive disease, and surgical risk. For patients with aortoiliac disease, endovascular therapy has become first-line therapy for all but the most severe patterns of occlusion, and aortofemoral bypass surgery is a highly effective and durable treatment for the latter group. For infrainguinal disease, the available data suggest that surgical bypass with vein is the preferred therapy for CLI patients likely to survive 2 years or more, and for those with long segment occlusions or severe infrapopliteal disease who have an acceptable surgical risk. Endovascular therapy may be preferred in patients with reduced life expectancy, those who lack usable vein for bypass or who are at elevated risk for operation, and those with less severe arterial occlusions. Patients with unreconstructable disease, extensive necrosis involving weight-bearing areas, nonambulatory status, or other severe comorbidities may be considered for primary amputation or palliative measures

The Population Impact of a Large School-Based Influenza Vaccination Campaign

The optimal vaccination strategy to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics is unclear. In 2005, a countywide school-based influenza vaccination campaign was launched in Knox County, Tennessee (population 385,899). Approximately 41% and 48% of eligible county children aged 5-17 years were immunized with live attenuated influenza vaccine before the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 influenza seasons, respectively. We sought to determine the population impact of this campaign.Laboratory-confirmed influenza data defined influenza seasons. We calculated the incidence of medically attended acute respiratory illness attributable to influenza in Knox and Knox-surrounding counties (concurrent controls) during consecutive seasons (5 precampaign and 2 campaign seasons) using negative binomial regression and rate difference methods. Age-stratified analyses compared the incidence of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations attributable to influenza.During precampaign seasons, estimated ED visit rates attributable to influenza were 12.39 (95% CI: 10.34-14.44) per 1000 Knox children aged 5-17 years and similar in Knox-surrounding counties. During the campaign seasons, annual Knox influenza-associated ED visit rates declined relative to rates in Knox-surrounding counties: rate ratios 0.55 (95% CI: 0.27-0.83) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.84) for the first and second campaign seasons, respectively. Overall, there were about 35% or 4.86 per 1000 fewer influenza-associated ED visits among Knox County children aged 5-17 years attributable to the campaign. No significant declines in Knox compared to surrounding counties were detected for influenza associated ED visits in children aged <5 years, all adults combined or selected adult age subgroups, although power for these analyses was limited. Alternate rate-difference analyses yielded consistent results.Vaccination of approximately 45% of Knox school-aged children with influenza vaccine was associated with a 35% annual reduction (4.86 per 1000) in ED visit rates attributable to influenza. Higher vaccination coverage and/or larger studies would be needed to determine whether similar interventions have indirect benefits in other age groups

Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories (<18, 18–49, 50–64, 65+). Bayesian parameter estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For the eleven year study period, a total of 260,814 (95% CI: 201,011–290,556) deaths was attributed to influenza, corresponding to an annual average of 23,710, or 0.91% of all deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Annual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.</p