Limit theorems for prices of options written on semi-Markov processes

We consider plain vanilla European options written on an underlying asset that follows a continuous time semi-Markov multiplicative process. We derive a formula and a renewal type equation for the martingale option price. In the case in which intertrade times follow the Mittag-Leffler distribution, under appropriate scaling, we prove that these option prices converge to the price of an option written on geometric Brownian motion time-changed with the inverse stable subordinator. For geometric Brownian motion time changed with an inverse subordinator, in the more general case when the subordinator’s Laplace exponent is a special Bernstein function, we derive a time-fractional generalization of the equation of Black and Scholes

A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, proceedings of APFA

Feller Processes: The Next Generation in Modeling. Brownian Motion, L\'evy Processes and Beyond

We present a simple construction method for Feller processes and a framework for the generation of sample paths of Feller processes. The construction is based on state space dependent mixing of L\'evy processes. Brownian Motion is one of the most frequently used continuous time Markov processes in applications. In recent years also L\'evy processes, of which Brownian Motion is a special case, have become increasingly popular. L\'evy processes are spatially homogeneous, but empirical data often suggest the use of spatially inhomogeneous processes. Thus it seems necessary to go to the next level of generalization: Feller processes. These include L\'evy processes and in particular Brownian motion as special cases but allow spatial inhomogeneities. Many properties of Feller processes are known, but proving the very existence is, in general, very technical. Moreover, an applicable framework for the generation of sample paths of a Feller process was missing. We explain, with practitioners in mind, how to overcome both of these obstacles. In particular our simulation technique allows to apply Monte Carlo methods to Feller processes.Comment: 22 pages, including 4 figures and 8 pages of source code for the generation of sample paths of Feller processe

Basic kinetic wealth-exchange models: common features and open problems

We review the basic kinetic wealth-exchange models of Angle [J. Angle, Social Forces 65 (1986) 293; J. Math. Sociol. 26 (2002) 217], Bennati [E. Bennati, Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali 35 (1988) 735], Chakraborti and Chakrabarti [A. Chakraborti, B. K. Chakrabarti, Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167], and of Dragulescu and Yakovenko [A. Dragulescu, V. M. Yakovenko, Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 723]. Analytical fitting forms for the equilibrium wealth distributions are proposed. The influence of heterogeneity is investigated, the appearance of the fat tail in the wealth distribution and the relaxation to equilibrium are discussed. A unified reformulation of the models considered is suggested.Comment: Updated version; 9 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Emerging properties of financial time series in the “Game of Life”

We explore the spatial complexity of Conway’s “Game of Life,” a prototypical cellular automaton by means of a geometrical procedure generating a two-dimensional random walk from a bidimensional lattice with periodical boundaries. The one-dimensional projection of this process is analyzed and it turns out that some of its statistical properties resemble the so-called stylized facts observed in financial time series. The scope and meaning of this result are discussed from the viewpoint of complex systems. In particular, we stress how the supposed peculiarities of financial time series are, often, overrated in their importance