Dependence Structure between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Rate Market via Copula Approach

在金融研究领域，金融资产收益率之间的相关关系一直是重要议题。研究者们通常使用Pearson统计量来度量收益率之间的线性相关关系，然而事实上，金融资产收益率之间普遍存在非线性关系，因而，使用copula函数来弥补线性测度的缺陷成为当下研究的热点问题。 本文主要使用copula函数来研究2005年至2017年间中国、香港和英国股票市场和外汇市场在极端情况下的联动效应。我们通过ARMA-GARCH过程来拟合股票收益率的时间序列和货币收益率的时间序列，同时使用copula函数拟合股票收益率和外汇收益率之间的相关关系。我们使用了四种不同的copula函数，包括高斯分布、学生t分布、Gumbel分布和R...The dependence structure between asset returns plays decisive role in financial industry. The main widely used measure is Pearson’s linear correlation. However, among other disadvantages it is unable to measure the non-linear dependence across financial assets, which is almost always the case we encounter in reality. To cover shortcomings of ordinary linear dependence, copula functions are used as...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_金融工程学号：2772015115476

Armenian Media System Overview According to the Hallin and Mancini Model

An overview of the Armenian media system is presented from the perspective of media professionals. Interference with the media system by the political system is analysed and the health of the Armenian media system is explored in the context of its transition from a Soviet republic towards a liberal model. The international situation contextualises analysis (resurgence of Russia - West enmity and globalisation) as does Armenia's troubled relationship with its neighbours: with Turkey due to the 1915 genocide and with Azerbaijan because of the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. Relevant domestic affairs, such as the successful citizens' mobilisation and the 2018 Velvet Revolution are also considered. The methodology used is based on in-depth interviews carried out in Yerevan (09/23) with 13 key informants; their answers are explored with content analysis using Hallin and Mancini's dimensions. The study will serve to discuss how the media are used as tools of power and how the media system reproduces the political system (polarisation and individual ownership). We find that media is owned and/or controlled by political parties, and that the government controls public media but also part of the private sector through broadcasting licences and economic pressure. News media are not self-sustainable, thus, media economic dependence compromises its editorial independence, and very few media are independent. There is plurality, but highly polarised; there is no systematic censorship, but defamation fines reinforce journalists' self-censorship; internet freedom is high but generates misinformation. Even so, there is professionalism, therefore there may yet be hope for the media if peace and the economy stabilise

Modern changes in climatic characteristics and minimum flow of the rivers in the basin of lake Sevan

Formulation of the problem. Studies and data on modern changes in the winter minimum average monthly flow of the rivers of the Lake Sevan basin and their climatic characteristics have acquired great practical importance and considerable interest due to the increased use of water resources for the purposes of various types of economic activities, in particular, in connection with the development of the economy, hydropower, irrigation, population growth and rising living standards. Especially relevant are the calculations of the minimum flow in relation to solving the problems of water supply for settlements, industrial enterprises. The aim of the work. Assessment of modern changes in the winter minimum average monthly runoff of rivers in the Lake Sevan basin and their climatic characteristics. Methods. The following methods were used in the work: mathematical-statistical, extrapolation, interpolation, spatial analysis, analogy, correlation and cartography. Results. A physical map has been compiled with a network of meteorological stations and hydrological posts in the Lake Sevan basin. Close correlations were obtained between the values of the winter minimum average monthly runoff and the average runoff of the winter period for a hydrological year. These dependences can be used for preliminary estimates of the minimum runoff of the winter low-water period of unstudied rivers in the territory under consideration. In the course of the research, the winter minimum average monthly discharges were calculated by months and for the entire observation period, the average value of the minimum runoff for the winter low water, and the linear trend of the climatic characteristic. Based on the obtained results, a map of the distribution of the modul of the average minimum runoff of the winter low-water period and the coefficients of the linear trend of the winter air temperature were constructed. Examples of curves of long-term changes in precipitation amounts for the autumn and winter periods, the sum of positive temperatures and the number of days with a positive average daily air temperature in the winter period for a series of meteorological stations in the study area are presented. The rivers of the Lake Sevan basin are characterized by an uneven spatio-temporal distribution of winter minimum runoff and climatic characteristics, changes in the winter average monthly minimum runoff, precipitation amounts for the autumn and winter periods are multidirectional, and air temperature changes are only an upward trend. In the area under consideration, there is mainly (by 8 out of 12 stations under study) a tendency to decrease in the values of the minimum average monthly river flow. The conducted studies lead us to the conclusion that the main factor causing changes in the low-water runoff of the rivers in the Lake Sevan basin in winter is the air temperature, or rather, its increase. It follows from this that when calculating and forecasting winter runoff, it is necessary to relate the values of runoff and air temperature

Dendrochronological potential of drought-sensitive tree stands in Armenia for the hydroclimate reconstruction of the Lesser Caucasus

Existing high-resolution reconstructions of hydroclimate variability in the Caucasus are lacking tree-ring data from Armenian Plateau, the most continental part of the region. Our research presents the first dendrochronological investigation in Armenia. Juniper and oak tree-ring width chronologies were constructed, the longest spanning the last 140 years. The positive influence of spring–summer precipitation and the negative influence of temperature suggest drought stress at the investigated sites. Moving correlation analysis indicated a significant change over time in the sensitivity of investigated trees to climatic variability; juniper, previously sensitive to both temperature and precipitation, has shown especially strong precipitation signals in the recent decades since the local climate has turned more arid. Ongoing climate change increases drought stress in juniper, which may have further consequences on semiarid ecosystems. Our results reveal multiannual droughts recorded by tree rings, emerging in most parts of the Black Sea–Caspian Sea region

Understanding people’s interactions with urban greenspace: Case studies in Eastern Europe

This study explored and compared people’s interactions with urban greenspace (UGS) using case studies in three Eastern European countries – Armenia, Georgia and Ukraine. These countries have experienced radical changes in governance systems and socio-economic structures, characteristic of a transition from planned to market economies. Recently, Armenia, Georgia and Ukraine have been arenas for armed conflicts, which have dramatically heightened instability throughout the region. Urban planners in Eastern Europe therefore urgently need context-relevant knowledge to facilitate the critical work of (re-)building more inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities. An unrestricted, self-selected online survey was used to collect data in 2021–2022. A total of 3573 respondents completed the survey (N = 1142 in Armenia, N = 1069 in Georgia and N = 1362 in Ukraine). We identified 12 key explanatory factors linked to the frequency of people’s interactions with UGS using multiple ordinal logistic regressions. The core findings are: (i) most factors are country-specific; (ii) age of respondents had a large effect on the frequency of UGS use in Armenia and Georgia, where older people were mostly infrequent users of UGS; (iii) those who lived further from UGS or could not access it on foot were less likely to use it often; and (iv) the only common key factor across three countries was that people who ‘do not want’ to use UGS are infrequent users. The study shows that only 10–18% of respondents were satisfied with the UGS availability and quality. Among many constraints related to UGS use, litter in UGS and lack of time were the most mentioned. Large parks were the most preferred types of UGS. Our findings confirm the need for urban planners in Eastern Europe to consider and integrate diverse factors influencing people’s willingness to interact with urban nature. A priority is to understand how to bring infrequent users to UGS, particularly older people in various cultural settings in Eastern European countries