BUDGET PERSPECTIVES 2016, PAPER 1. Exploring Tax and Welfare Options. June 2015

Budgetary policies on income-related taxes and welfare must find a balance between providing income support to those in need and maintaining a financial incentive to work which supports high employment. This paper focuses principally on the “cash” or “first round” impact of tax and welfare policy changes across the income distribution. Incentive issues are considered in Section 5 of this paper, and in a companion paper to this conference (Savage et al., 2015)

BUDGET PERSPECTIVES 2016, PAPER 2. Making Work Pay More: Recent Initiatives. June 2015

This paper examines the financial incentives to work implicit in the Irish tax and benefit system, focusing in particular on incentives facing those who are unemployed and in receipt of Jobseeker’s Benefit or Jobseeker’s Assistance. The results, based on an analysis of current incomes, benefits and taxes, suggest that more than eight out of ten of these unemployed jobseekers would see their income increase by at least 40 per cent upon taking up employment. Fewer than 3 per cent of these individuals would, in the short-term, be financially better off not in work. The risk of facing weak financial incentives to work is higher for unemployed persons with a spouse and children, as the income support goal of the welfare system means that they tend to have higher welfare payments. However, even among that group, fewer than 1 in 15 would be financially better off not working. Our analysis shows that a recent policy initiative, the Back to Work Family Dividend, announced in Budget 2015, clearly improves the immediate financial incentives to work for this group

Budget Perspectives 2014. RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 31 June 2013

The annual Budget Perspectives Conference provides a forum for discussing key public policy issues of both immediate and longer‐term importance. Against a continuing backdrop of major economic and fiscal challenges and a continuing fiscal adjustment under the IMF/EU programme, budgetary policy must be seen to support Ireland’s return to a sustainable growth path

Crisis, Response and Distributional Impact: The Case of Ireland. ESRI WP456. May 2013

Ireland is one of the countries most severely affected by the Great Recession. National income fell by more than 10 per cent between 2007 and 2012, as a result of the bursting of a remarkable property bubble, an exceptionally severe banking crisis, and deep fiscal adjustment. This paper examines the income distribution consequences of the recession, and identifies the impact of a broad range of austerity policies on the income distribution. The overall fall in income was just under 8 per cent between 2008 and 2011, but the greatest losses were strongly concentrated on the bottom and top deciles. Tax, welfare and public sector pay changes over the 2008 to 2013 period gave rise to slightly lower than average losses for the bottom decile. Thus, the larger than average losses observed overall are not due to these policy changes; instead, the main driving factors are the direct effects of the recession itself. Policy changes do contribute to the larger than average losses at high income levels

A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics

The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that real-life situations can violate Savage's Sure-Thing Principle and hence also expected utility. We analyze how this violation is connected to the presence of the 'disjunction effect' of decision theory and use our earlier study of this effect in concept theory to put forward an explanation of the violation of Savage's Sure-Thing Principle, namely the presence of 'quantum conceptual thought' next to 'classical logical thought' within a double layer structure of human thought during the decision process. Quantum conceptual thought can be modeled mathematically by the quantum mechanical formalism, which we illustrate by modeling the Hawaii problem situation, a well-known example of the disjunction effect, and we show how the dynamics in the Hawaii problem situation is generated by the whole conceptual landscape surrounding the decision situation.Comment: 9 pages, no figure

Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenvectors

Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Submitted to Tectonophysics on 30 August 200

Budget Perspectives 2013. RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 28 September 2012

The annual Budget Perspectives Conference provides a forum for discussing key public policy issues of both immediate and longer term concern. In the context of the current fiscal and economic crisis, research insights are needed at both the macro and micro level. The former are central to understanding and managing the significant reductions in the budget deficit needed to put Ireland's public finances on a sustainable footing. The latter are essential because a successful budgetary adjustment requires restructuring of both public expenditure and taxation. This in turn requires that policy adjustments take full account of both efficiency and equity issue and are seen to do so. The research papers presented at this year's annual Budget Perspectives Conference continue in this tradition, providing an opportunity for policymakers, social partners and researchers to engage with some of the major current issues

Probing CP Violation with the Deuteron Electric Dipole Moment

We present an analysis of the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the deuteron as induced by CP-violating operators of dimension 4, 5 and 6 including theta QCD, the EDMs and color EDMs of quarks, four-quark interactions and the Weinberg operator. We demonstrate that the precision goal of the EDM Collaboration's proposal to search for the deuteron EDM, (1-3)\times 10^{-27} e cm, will provide an improvement in sensitivity to these sources of one-two orders of magnitude relative to the existing bounds. We consider in detail the level to which CP-odd phases can be probed within the MSSM.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; precision estimates clarified, to appear in Phys. Rev.

K^+ -> pi^+pi^0e^+e^-: a novel short-distance probe

We study the decay K^+ -> pi^+ pi^0 e^+ e^-, currently under analysis by the NA62 Collaboration at CERN. In particular, we provide a detailed analysis of the Dalitz plot for the long-distance, gamma^*-mediated, contributions (Bremsstrahlung, direct emission and its interference). We also examine a set of asymmetries to isolate genuine short-distance effects. While we show that charge asymmetries are not required to test short distances, they provide the best environment for its detection. This constitutes by itself a strong motivation for NA62 to study K^- decays in the future. We therefore provide a detailed study of different charge asymmetries and the corresponding estimated signals. Whenever possible, we make contact with the related processes K^+ -> pi^+ pi^0 gamma and K_L -> pi^+ pi^- e^+ e^- and discuss the advantages of K^+ -> pi^+ pi^0 e^+ e^- over them.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure