Glacier-Surface Velocity Derived Ice Volume and Retreat Assessment in the Dhauliganga Basin, Central Himalaya – A Remote Sensing and Modeling Based Approach

Himalayan glaciers are a storehouse of fresh water and play a significant role in influencing the runoff through numerous perennial rivers flowing over the Indo-Gangetic plains, providing freshwater to the second largest populated country in the world. For suitable management of this water resource, measurement of glacier-ice volume is extremely important in the current scenario of climate change and water scarcity. To address this concern, the present study endeavors to find a suitable methodology to quantify glacier volume and retreat in the Central Himalaya. Herein, two methods were implemented to estimate the total glacier ice volume – conventional area-based scaling method and glacier-surface velocity based modeling technique. The availability of field data allowed a validation assessment to be carried out on two Himalayan glaciers (Chhota Shigri and Satopanth). Here, we propose a volume-area power law, appropriate for the application in the context of Himalayan glaciers. The ice volume of 15 glaciers larger than 1 km2 calculated using a spatially distributed ice thickness model is 3.78 × 109 m3 (f = 0.8), with an overall uncertainty of 18.4%. The total volume of the remaining glaciers in the basin, calculated using a tuned volume-area scaling relation is 2.71 × 109 m3. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence of input parameters on the model and volume-area scaling performance. The study also incorporates investigation of the glacier bed topography for discrete identification of the overdeepening sites in the glacier valley which are potential lake formation sites in the future. A total of 54 overdeepening sites covering an area of 2.85 km2 have been identified. In addition, the relative glacier area loss of the glaciers is investigated using historical CORONA and Landsat satellite imageries. Glaciers with a smaller area and those with lower mean ice thickness near the terminus shrank significantly more, as compared to the larger ones. The total area of the selected larger glaciers is estimated to be 68 km2 in 2015 and deglaciation of 4.7 km2 is observed over the period of 48 years that accounts for 6.9% of the total area in 1968

Mass movement hazard and exposure in the Himalaya

Himalaya is experiencing frequent catastrophic mass movement events such as avalanches and landslides, causing loss of human lives and infrastructure. Millions of people reside in critical zones potentially exposed to such catastrophes. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of mass movement exposure is lacking at a regional scale. Here, we developed a novel method of determining mass movement trajectories and applied it to the Himalayan Mountain ranges for the first time to quantify the exposure of infrastructure, waterways, roadways, and population in six mountain ranges, including Hindu Kush, Karakoram, western Himalaya, eastern Himalaya, central Himalaya, and Hengduan Shan. Our results reveal that the exposure of buildings and roadways to mass movements is highest in Karakoram, whereas central Himalaya has the highest exposed waterways. The hotspots of exposed roadways are concentrated in Nepal, the North Indian states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, the Union Territory of Ladakh, and China's Sichuan Province. Our analysis shows that the population in the central Himalaya is currently at the highest exposure to mass movement impacts. Projected future populations based on Shared Socio‐economic and Representative Concentration Pathways suggest that changing settlement patterns and emission scenarios will significantly influence the potential impact of these events on the human population. Assessment of anticipated secondary hazards (glacial lake outburst floods) shows an increase in probable headward impacts of mass movements on glacial lakes in the future. Our findings will support researchers, policymakers, stakeholders, and local governments in identifying critical areas that require detailed investigation for risk reduction and mitigation

Future glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya

The Teesta basin in Sikkim Himalaya hosts numerous glacial lakes in the high altitude glacierized region, including one of the largest and the fastest-growing South Lhonak Lake. While these lakes are mainly located in remote and unsettled mountain valleys, far-reaching glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may claim lives and damage assets up to tens of kilometers downstream. Therefore, evaluating GLOF hazard associated with current and potential future glacier-retreat-driven changes is of high importance. In this work, we assess the future GLOF hazard of the South Lhonak Lake by integrating glacier and hydrodynamic modeling to calculate the lake's future volume and hydraulic GLOF characteristics and impacts along the valley. We identify the increased susceptibility of the lake to potential avalanche impacts as the lake grows in the future. Here we model six avalanche scenarios of varying magnitudes to evaluate the impact-wave generated in the lake and overtopping flow at the dam. Avalanche simulations indicate that the frontal moraine is susceptible to overtopping. The overtopping flow hydraulics is evaluated along the channel assuming no erosion of the moraine. Further, we consider three lake-breach scenarios to model GLOFs originating from the lake, flow propagation, and its downstream impacts. The uncertainty in the breach parameters including breach width and time of failure are calculated to estimate the upper and the lower hydraulic limits of potential future GLOF events. Further, the uncertainty in the flow hydraulics was evaluated using dynamic flood routing of six GLOFs that originate from the lake. Hydrodynamic GLOF modeling resulted in a predicted peak discharge of 4311 m3s−1, 8000 m3s−1, and 12,487 m3s−1 for breach depths of 20 m, 30 m, and 40 m respectively. The large-potential scenario suggests that maximum flow depth and flow velocity at Chungthang, a town proximally located to a major hydropower station built-in 2015, could reach up to 25–30 m and 6–9 m s−1, respectively. Mapping infrastructure exposed to GLOFs in the Teesta valley shows that many settlements and assets located along the river channel at Chungthang are potentially exposed to future GLOFs, indicating the need to conduct a full environmental impact assessment and potentially undertake GLOF risk mitigation measures

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change

Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard for Gepang Gath Lake, Western Himalaya, considering rock and/or ice avalanches cascading into the lake. We consider ground surface temperature and topography to define avalanche source zones located in areas of potentially degrading permafrost. GLOF process chains in current and future scenarios, also considering engineered lake lowering of 10 and 30 m, were evaluated. Here, varied avalanche impact waves, erosion patterns, debris flow hydraulics, and GLOF impacts at Sissu village, under 18 different scenarios were assessed. Authors demonstrated that a larger future lake does not necessarily produce larger GLOF events in Sissu, depending, among other factors, on the location from where the triggering avalanche initiates and strikes the lake. For the largest scenarios, 10 m of lowering reduces the high-intensity zone by 54% and 63% for the current and future scenarios, respectively, but has little effect on the medium-intensity flood zone. Even with 30 m of lake lowering, the Sissu helipad falls in the high-intensity zone under all moderate-to-large scenarios, with severe implications for evacuations and other emergency response actions. The approach can be extended to other glacial lakes to demonstrate the efficiency of lake lowering as an option for GLOF mitigation and enable a robust GLOF hazard and risk assessment

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021):a research community perspective

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7-9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs - timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.Fil: Emmer, Adam. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Allen, Simon K.. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universidad de Ginebra; SuizaFil: Carey, Mark. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Frey, Holger. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Korup, Oliver. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Mergili, Martin. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Sattar, Ashim. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Veh, Georg. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Chen, Thomas Y.. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Simon J.. University Of Dundee; Reino Unido. Unesco. Centre For Water Law, Policy And Science; Reino UnidoFil: Correas Gonzalez, Mariana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Das, Soumik. Jawaharlal Nehru University; IndiaFil: Diaz Moreno, Alejandro. Reynolds International Ltd; Reino UnidoFil: Drenkhan, Fabian. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; PerúFil: Fischer, Melanie. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Immerzeel, Walter W.. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Izagirre, Eñaut. Universidad del País Vasco; EspañaFil: Joshi, Ramesh Chandra. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Kougkoulos, Ioannis. American College Of Greece; GreciaFil: Kuyakanon Knapp, Riamsara. University of Oslo; Noruega. University of Cambridge; Estados UnidosFil: Li, Dongfeng. National University Of Singapore; SingapurFil: Majeed, Ulfat. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Matti, Stephanie. Haskoli Islands; IslandiaFil: Moulton, Holly. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Nick, Faezeh. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Piroton, Valentine. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Rashid, Irfan. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Reza, Masoom. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Ribeiro De Figueiredo, Anderson. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Riveros, Christian. Instituto Nacional de Investigación En Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña; PerúFil: Shrestha, Finu. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Shrestha, Milan. Arizona State University; Estados UnidosFil: Steiner, Jakob. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Walker-Crawford, Noah. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Wood, Joanne L.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yde, Jacob C.. Western Norway University Of Applied Sciences; Suiz

Application of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to study glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and its impact on a hydropower station in Central Himalaya

The existence of numerous lakes in the higher reaches of the Himalaya makes it a potential natural hazard as it imposes a risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which can cause great loss of life and infrastructure in the downstream regions. Hydrodynamic modeling of a natural earth-dam failure and hydraulic routing of the breach hydrograph allow us to characterize the flow behavior of a potential flood along a given flow channel. In the present study, the flow hydraulics of a potential GLOF generated due to the moraine failure of the Satopanth lake located in the Alaknanda basin is analyzed using one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrodynamic computations. Field measurements and mapping were carried out at the lake site and along the valley using high-resolution DGPS points. The parameters of Manning's roughness coefficient and terrain elevation were derived using satellite-based raster, the accuracy of which is verified using field data. The volume of the lake is calculated using area-based scaling method. Unsteady flood routing of the dam-break outflow hydrograph is performed along the flow channel to compute hydraulic parameters of peak discharge, water depth, flow velocity, inundation and stream power at a hydropower dam site located 28km downstream of the lake. Assuming the potential GLOF event occurs contemporaneously with a 100-year return period flood, unsteady hydraulic routing of the combined flood discharge is performed to evaluate its impact on the hydropower dam. The potential GLOF resulted in a peak discharge of2600 m(3)s(-1) at the dam site which arrived 38min after the initiation of the moraine-failure event. The temporal characteristics of the flood wave analyzed using 2D unsteady simulations revealed maximum inundation depth and flow velocity of 7.12m and 7.6ms(-1), respectively, at the dam site. Assuming that the control gates of the dam remain closed, water depth increases at a rate of 4.5m per minute and overflows the dam approximately 4min after the flood wave arrival

Lake Evolution, Hydrodynamic Outburst Flood Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in the Central Himalaya: A Case Study

Climate change has led to the formation of numerous high-altitude lakes of glacial origin in the Himalaya. Safed Lake is one of the largest glacial lakes, located at an elevation 4882 m a.s.l. in the state of Uttarakhand, central Himalaya, India. A temporal analysis of the lake surface using satellite imagery shows that the lake has grown more than double its size from 0.10 km2 to 0.23 km2 over the past 50 years. In this study, we performed a hazard assessment of the lake using 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling. We identified the potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) triggering factors and evaluated the impact of a moraine breach event of the lake on the nearest village located 16.2 km downstream of the lake. A series of dynamic simulations were performed for different scenario-models based on varied breach depths, breach widths and time of moraine failure. In a worst-case GLOF scenario where breach depth reached up to 60 m, hydrodynamic routing of the breach hydrograph along the given channel revealed inundation depth up to 5 m and flow velocities up to 3.2 m s−1 at Milam village. Considering the flat geometry of the frontal moraine, hazard assessment of the lake was performed by for different breach incision depths (30 and 15 m). In addition, the study incorporated a series of hydrodynamic routing to understand the sensitivity of GLOF to different model input parameters and terrain conditions. The sensitivity of the initial GLOF hydrograph to breach formation time (Tf) was evaluated by considering different hypothetical breach scenarios with a varied time of failure. Increases of 11.5% and 22% in the peak flooding were recorded when the moraine failure time was decreased by 15 and 30 min respectively. The two-dimensional sensitivity revealed flow velocity (m s−1) to be more sensitive to change in Manning’s N when compared to the inundation depth (m). Changes of 10.7% and 0.5% in the mean flow velocity (in m s−1) and flow depth (in m) were recorded when dN was 0.01. The flow velocity was more sensitive to the slope and the top-width of the channel when compared to the inundation depths. A regression of flow velocity versus slope gives a correlation coefficient of 0.76. GLOF flow hydraulics are sensitive to changes in terrain elevation, where flow depth and velocity vary in a similar manner

Editorial: Cryospheric remote sensing

The cryosphere, including ice caps, ice sheets, ice shelves, mountain glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and sea ice, is a key component of the Earth system. It plays a critical role in response to climate change and serves as a primary source of freshwater (Li et al., 2018; Yao et al., 2022). In recent decades, the cryosphere has undergone rapid changes, such as the melting of glaciers and sea ice, the decrease of snow cover and the degradation of permafrost. These changes have far-reaching consequences for both Earth’s climate system and the living environment of humans. Therefore, cryosphere research is of great importance to understand cryospheric change and its potential impacts on other spheres of the Earth. Over the last decades, there have been notable advancements in cryosphere monitoring through remote sensing technology. The improvement in spatial and temporal resolution of satellite imagery has contributed significantly to enhancing the understanding of cryosphere processes as well as allowing the development of new algorithms, data products and interdisciplinary integration with other fields of study. Despite significant advancements in cryosphere research, certain limitations still exist. Satellite images can be affected by cloud cover, atmospheric interference, and other factors that can limit accuracy and reliability. Furthermore, integrating these data with ground-based measurements and other forms of data is still challenging to comprehensively understand the changes in the cryosphere and its response to climate change.Remote sensing provides a viable option for studying the cryosphere in space due to its inaccessibility. Modern satellites and high-quality data provide a rich resource for cryosphere-related studies, while efficient algorithms make it more capable. Remote sensing is typically used to evaluate past changes and regularly monitor different components of the cryosphere. This facilitates better attribution and prediction of climatic parameters and their potential impacts on the cryosphere.Peer reviewe