Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

<div><p>India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.</p></div

Future distribution of endemic plants in Indian biodiversity hotspots under A1B scenario with contribution of predictor variables, a) for year 2050, b) 2080; change in distribution range during c) year 2050, d) 2080.

<p>Venn diagrams indicate the model performance of individual variable based models and mixed models for individual hotspot (Bio4: Temperature seasonality, Bio7: Temperature annual range, Bio15: Precipitation seasonality, Bio20: Annual mean radiation, Bio28: Annual mean moisture index, Bio32: Mean moisture index of wettest quarter, PDensity: Human population density, TerCom: Terrain complexity).</p

Measuring management practices in India's district public health bureaucracy.

Weak management is widely recognised as a key impediment to scaling-up coverage of health interventions and ensuring health systems are responsive to population needs. Yet there is scant evidence linking management practices in the public administration to effective health service delivery. We report on the development of a tool to measure management practices in India's district health bureaucracy. We first developed a conceptual framework based on a review of the literature and qualitative interviews with district public health managers. Across 16 management practices, we then drafted and piloted questions to be used with a scoring grid to evaluate process-orientated management practices. We implemented the tool in 34 districts of Maharashtra between April and July 2016, interviewing up to three district public health managers per district (n = 99). Using rigorous psychometric methods, we assessed the acceptability, reliability and validity of the tool. We present three key findings. First, the tool was feasible to implement, response rates were high, and there were no missing data. Second, internal consistency of the tool was high and test-retest reliability was comparable with other management tools used in the literature. Third, there was evidence of validity. The number of staff with a management qualification was positively associated with better management practices. Factor analysis showed that one principal component loaded positively on all the management practices although there was little support for management sub-scales. These findings provide novel evidence on the psychometric properties of a tool designed to measure management practices in the public administration of a developing country. Our framework and tool provide the basis to examine associations between district health management practices and health service delivery, and test the effectiveness of management strengthening interventions in India's public health sector

Development of Ahmedabad’s Air Information and Response (AIR) Plan to Protect Public Health

Indian cities struggle with some of the highest ambient air pollution levels in the world. While national efforts are building momentum towards concerted action to reduce air pollution, individual cities are taking action on this challenge to protect communities from the many health problems caused by this harmful environmental exposure. In 2017, the city of Ahmedabad launched a regional air pollution monitoring and risk communication project, the Air Information and Response (AIR) Plan. The centerpiece of the plan is an air quality index developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology&rsquo;s System for Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research program that summarizes information from 10 new continuous air pollution monitoring stations in the region, each reporting data that can help people avoid harmful exposures and inform policy strategies to achieve cleaner air. This paper focuses on the motivation, development, and implementation of Ahmedabad&rsquo;s AIR Plan. The project is discussed in terms of its collaborative roots, public health purpose in addressing the grave threat of air pollution (particularly to vulnerable groups), technical aspects in deploying air monitoring technology, and broader goals for the dissemination of an air quality index linked to specific health messages and suggested actions to reduce harmful exposures. The city of Ahmedabad is among the first cities in India where city leaders, state government, and civil society are proactively working together to address the country&rsquo;s air pollution challenge with a focus on public health. The lessons learned from the development of the AIR Plan serve as a template for other cities aiming to address the heavy burden of air pollution on public health. Effective working relationships are vital since they form the foundation for long-term success and useful knowledge sharing beyond a single city