The yield curve and the prediction on the business cycle: a VAR analysis for the European Union

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008 years. With this regard we propose two VAR models. The former is derived from the standard approach, the later is an extended version considering explicitly the macroeconomic effects of the risk premium. We propose the estimates of the models and their out-of-sample forecasts through both the European Union GDP (Gross Domestic Product) quarterly series and the European Union IPI (Industrial Production Index) monthly series. We show that the our extended model performs better than the standard model and that the out-of-sample forecasts of the IPI monthly series are better than ones of the GDP quarterly series. Moreover the out-of-sample exercises seems us very useful because they show the crowding out arising from Lehman Brother’s unexpected crash and the becoming next fine tuning process.yield curve, monetary policy, business cycle, risk premium, real growth

Prenatal screening and counseling for genetic disorders

Introduction: The carriers of the same autosomal recessive disorder are usually unaware of onset of the genetic diseases in the children even if screenings are available for many of these disorders. In this paper, we report the experience of the Prenatal Diagnosis Center of AOU Federico II and we discuss the role of the screening for beta-thalassemia (BT), cystic fibrosis (CF) and for other rare genetic disorders. Materials and Methods: We analyzed retrospectively the indication for Prenatal Diagnosis (PD) of all the couples referred to our center from January 1993 to May 2013. We divided our sample into three groups: couples at high risk for BT, for CF and for other rare genetic disorders. Results: From January 1993 to May 2013, we performed 1269 PD for genetic disorders. There are still couples who discovered to be carriers of BT by screening after the birth of the affected child (n=51 (11,3%)); the majority of the people were screened for CF carrier after the birth of an affected child (n=155 (80,7%)) or through the cascade screening (n=28 (14,6%)). Large-scale screenings for rare genetic conditions are not available and people were screened only if they have a positive familial history. Conclusion: Parental screening is available for many severe and rare diseases whose genetic origin is known. The proportion of patients referred for very high-risk indications increased over time with an higher demand for rare disease. An adequate counseling is fundamental to identify women at risk for having affected child. Screening, counseling and PD of genetic diseases is a complex matter and needs for a continuous update

The yield curve and the prediction on the business cycle: a VAR analysis for the European Union

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008 years. With this regard we propose two VAR models. The former is derived from the standard approach, the later is an extended version considering explicitly the macroeconomic effects of the risk premium. We propose the estimates of the models and their out-of-sample forecasts through both the European Union GDP (Gross Domestic Product) quarterly series and the European Union IPI (Industrial Production Index) monthly series. We show that the our extended model performs better than the standard model and that the out-of-sample forecasts of the IPI monthly series are better than ones of the GDP quarterly series. Moreover the out-of-sample exercises seems us very useful because they show the crowding out arising from Lehman Brother’s unexpected crash and the becoming next fine tuning process

The yield curve and the prediction on the business cycle: a VAR analysis for the European Union

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008 years. With this regard we propose two VAR models. The former is derived from the standard approach, the later is an extended version considering explicitly the macroeconomic effects of the risk premium. We propose the estimates of the models and their out-of-sample forecasts through both the European Union GDP (Gross Domestic Product) quarterly series and the European Union IPI (Industrial Production Index) monthly series. We show that the our extended model performs better than the standard model and that the out-of-sample forecasts of the IPI monthly series are better than ones of the GDP quarterly series. Moreover the out-of-sample exercises seems us very useful because they show the crowding out arising from Lehman Brother’s unexpected crash and the becoming next fine tuning process

Thrombotic microangiopathies during pregnancy : The obstetrical and neonatal perspective

Thrombotic Microangiopathies during pregnancy and puerperium are very rare and, if undiagnosed, can be lifethreating. Pregnancy and postpartum can represent a trigger in predisposed patients. Therefore, obstetricians are usually the first to observe clinical symptoms and laboratory abnormalities suggestive of Thrombotic Microangiopathies. The aim of this review is to briefly describe the obstetrical and perinatal outcome of these entities and highlight the clues for a correct diagnosis of pregnancy-related Thrombotic Microangiopathies. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Risk of preeclampsia in of women who underwent chorionic villus sampling

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of preeclampsia in women who underwent chorionic villus sampling (CVS). STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective, single-center, cohort study. All consecutive singleton gestations who underwent chorionic villus sampling from January 2014 to January 2016 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of preeclampsia. Subgroup analysis in women with beta thalassemic trait was performed. Logistic regression, presented as adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with the 95% of confidence interval (CI), was performed. RESULTS: Five hundred forty-seven women who underwent CVS, and 1532 women who did not were analyzed. Women who underwent CVS had a significantly lower risk of preeclampsia (4.4 versus 8.0%; aOR 0.53, 95%CI 0.34-0.83), and late-onset preeclampsia (3.3 versus 6.1%; aOR 0.52, 95%CI 0.31-0.87). No statistically significant differences were found in preeclampsia with severe features, early-onset preeclampsia, and preterm birth (PTB). Women who underwent CVS due to thalassemic trait had a lower incidence of preeclampsia compare to those women who did not undergo CVS (3.3 versus 8.0%; aOR 0.39, 95%CI 0.14-0.87), while no differences were found comparing women who underwent CVS due to thalassemic trait with women who underwent CVS due to other reasons. CONCLUSIONS: Women who underwent first trimester CVS had a lower risk of preeclampsia compared to those who did not

Maternal Body Mass Index influences Umbilical Artery Doppler Velocimetry in physiologic pregnancies.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study was to assess whether there is a relationship between maternal body mass index (BMI) and umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry in physiologic pregnancies. METHODS: Healthy pregnancy women, referred to our center at or before 32 weeks of gestation, were recruited. According to BMI, they were divided into underweight (BMI < 18.5), normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9) and obese women (BMI ≥ 30). At 32(+0)  weeks of gestation, maternal BMI and umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry were recorded. A correlation between pulsatility index of umbilical artery and BMI was assessed by one-way ANOVA test, multiple comparison test (Bonferroni correction) and polynomial regression. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-five women were included. Mean pulsatility index of umbilical artery at 32(+0) was significantly higher in obese women (0.95 ± 0.01 vs 0.87 ± 0.01 vs 0.67 ± 0.01; p < 0.05). We found a positive correlation between Pulsatility Index of Umbilical Artery and maternal BMI (r(2)  = 0.7; p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: There is a positive correlation between BMI and pulsatility index of umbilical artery. These findings suggest that obesity has a negative effect on feto-placetal vessels. If our data will be confirmed, maternal BMI should be considered in evaluation of umbilical Doppler velocimetry

Financial constraints and relationship lending in the growth of italian SMEs

Our study confirms that the financial constraints to SME’s growth tend to appear as an excess of sensibility of the investment expenditures on firm’s cash flow. Through the application of dynamic panel data techniques to an extended version of Eulero’s investment equation of a sample of Italian SMEs, the analysis shows that the growth of the subsample of the small firms in backward regions of Italy is more constrained by inside finance than that of firms in more developed regions. This is because the typical information opacity of SMEs is worsened here by the unsatisfactory development of financial markets. Moreover, our analysis ascertains that the small firms can significantly relax the constraints if they are able to establish a close relationship with the banks making easier the access of bank to firm’s information

Diagnostic accuracy of intracranial translucency in detecting spina bifida: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of intracranial translucency (IT) in the detection of spina bifida (SB) in the first trimester of pregnancy. METHODS: We included study assessing the accuracy of sonographic measurements of IT in a mid-sagittal view of the fetal face in prediction of SB in the first trimester of pregnancy. The primary outcome was the accuracy of IT in prediction of spina bifida. Summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR), and diagnostic odds ratio for the overall predictive accuracy of IT were computed. RESULTS: Nine studies (21 070 fetuses) were included in the analysis. IT was successfully assessed in the majority of fetuses 97.8% (95% CI 97.6-98.0). The diagnostic performance of IT in detecting SB was as follows: sensitivity: 53.5% (95% CI 42.4-64.3), specificity: 99.7% (95% CI 99.6-99.8), positive LR: 62.1 (95% CI 12.2-317), negative LR:0.55 (95% CI 0.45-0.68), and diagnostic odds ratio: 223 (95% CI 25-2039). CONCLUSIONS: Intracranial translucency had low diagnostic accuracy in prediction of open spina bifida, thus questioning its role as a screening marker for open SB in an unselected population. When looking at the individual study data, it appears that IT assessment for open SB prediction can be affected by a high rate of false positive results potentially leading to unnecessary parental anxiet

Low molecular weight heparin use during pregnancy and risk of postpartum hemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal mortality worldwide with a prevalence rate of approximately 6%. Although most cases of PPH have no identifiable risk factors, the incidence of PPH has been associated to the thromboprophylaxis in pregnancy with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH). Thus, the aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of PPH in cases of pregnant women exposed to LMWH. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic research was performed in OVID, Scopus, ClinicalTrials.gov, MEDLINE, the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through April 2016. We included randomized controlled trials, cohort and case-control studies of women who underwent thromboprophylaxis with LMWH during pregnancy compared to a control group (either placebo or no treatment). The primary outcome was the incidence of PPH. The summary measures were reported as relative risk (RR) or as mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Eight studies including 22,162 women were analyzed. Of the 22,162 women, 1320 (6%) were administered LMWH, 20,842 (94%) women formed the nonexposed group (control group). Women treated with LMWH had a higher risk of PPH (RR 1.45, 95%CI 1.02-2.05) compared to controls; there was no difference in mean of blood loss at delivery (MD -32.90, 95%CI 68.72-2.93) and in risk of blood transfusion at delivery (RR 1.24, 95%CI 0.62-2.51), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Women who receive LMWH during pregnancy have a significantly higher risk of developing PPH. Women who receive LMWH during pregnancy have neither significantly higher mean blood loss at delivery nor higher risk of blood transfusion