Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: MELD Score 30-day Mortality Predictability and Etiology in a Pakistani Population

Background: Cirrhosis is a pathological condition that ultimately leads to liver failure. Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) has a high short term mortality rate. Viral hepatitis is the most common cause of liver failure in our local population. We carried out this study to identity the 30-day mortality and etiology of patients presenting with ACLF using Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predictability. Methodology: This was a descriptive case series, conducted at Sheikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan from January 31, 2018 to July 30, 2018. One hundred and eighty five patients who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled using 95% confidence level and 4% margin of error. Data was entered and analyzed with SPSS version 23.0. Numerical variables including age was presented by Mean ± S.D. Categorical variables i.e. gender, etiology of acute-on-chronic liver failure and 30-day mortality were presented by frequency and percentage. Data was stratified for age, gender, duration of chronic liver disease and MELD grade to address the effect modifiers. Post-stratification chi-square test was calculated using 95% significance (p≤0.05). Results: Majority of the enrolled patients were male (74.6%) while only 25.4% of the patients were female. One hundred and thirty patients (70.3%) had underlying viral hepatitis while twelve patients (6.5%) and forty three patients (23.2%) presented with alcoholic liver disease and drug-induced ACLF, respectively. Eighty patients (43.2%) died within 30 days of admission.The 30-day mortality with respect to MELD grade was statistically significant (p<0.001) with the highest mortality noted in grade-IV and thirty five patients (43.8%) dying within 30 days of admission (p<0.001). Grade-II and III MELD scores also contributed to the 30-day mortality with twenty three patients (28.8%) and nineteen patients (23.8%) dying within 30 days of admission (p<0.001). Conclusion: MELD scores are able to accurately predict the short-term mortality in patients with ACLF and viral hepatitis was the most common etiology in our population. Early detection and use of appropriate prognostic models may alleviate mortality and morbidity in paitents with ACLF

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research