On the Role and Effects of IMF Seniority

We analyze the IMF as a lender to countries in financial distress highlighting the fact that it is a senior creditor. An advantage of delegating senior lending in a single institution rather than on competitive markets is that it would be able to reach the socially optimal solution. This would require the IMF not to intervene when the crisis is severe enough. However, a commitment device might be needed to achieve the socially optimal solution. If IMF lending were done for all shocks, the country would be always ex-post better off but lenders would be worse off when the country situation is either good or weak, which is consistent with empirical evidence. Anticipation of senior lending might make the country better off by preventing inefficient liquidation. However it might actually hurt the country ex-ante and too much rescuing in the future could lead to too little lending in the present which is contrary to the moral hazard critique.Seniority, sovereign debt, IMF, ex-ante, ex-post, welfare effects

A note on the U-shaped relationship between political competition and economic freedom

We investigate a recent political theory of institutional change according to which institutions of economic freedom are more likely to be adopted at the extreme cases of strong and weak political competition than at cases in between. We find that such a U-shaped relationship is verified when controlling for other political variables and past economic growth, but disappears when controlling for the initial level of development. In this case, the relationship between political competition and the adoption of institutions of economic freedom appears to be positive and linear as suggested by the political principal-agent paradigm.Economic Freedom, Institutional Change, Political Competition, Political Institutions

On The Role and Effects of IMF Seniority

We analyze the IMF as a lender to countries in financial distress, highlighting the fact that it is a senior creditor. One advantage of delegating senior lending to a single institution rather than to competitive markets is that the former would be able to reach the socially optimal solution. This would require the IMF not to intervene when the crisis is severe enough. However, a commitment device might be needed to achieve the socially optimal solution. If IMF lending were done for all shocks, the country would always be better off ex post, but lenders would be worse off when the country’s situation is either good or weak, which is consistent with empirical evidence. Anticipation of senior lending might make the country better off by preventing inefficient liquidation. However, it might actually hurt the country ex ante, and too much rescuing in the future could lead to too little lending in the present which is contrary to the moral hazard critique.

The response speed of the International Monetary Fund. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/03, 16 July 2013

The more severe a financial crisis, the greater has been the likelihood of its management under an IMF-supported programme and the shorter the time from crisis onset to programme initiation. Political links to the United States have increased programme likelihood but have prompted faster response mainly for ‘major’crises. Over time, the IMF’s response has not been robustly faster, but the time sensitivity to the more severe crises and those related to fixed exchange rate regimes did increase from the mid-1980s. Similarly, democracies had tended to stall programme initiation but have become more supportive of financial markets’ demands for quicker action

Corporate tax, firm destruction and capital stock accumulation: Evidence from Chilean plants

We investigate the impact of corporate taxation on capital stock. In the paper, we indicate that corporate taxation might not only distort the decision of each firm to invest but could also destroy firms. With this in mind, we estimate capital demand equations, correcting for self-selection in the decision to produce by using the Heckman-Lee method and its panel data counterpart (Kyriadizou method). We use Chilean plant-level data , which is a period with large variability in corporate taxation. We find that corporate taxation has a considerable impact on the creation-destruction of firms and in addition, it also has an important impact on the decision of how much to invest for firms that are already involved in production.Corporate taxation, capital stock

Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?

An objective of IMF programs is to help countries improve their access to international capital markets. In this paper, we examine if Fund programs influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and whether they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued. We find that Fund programs do not provide a uniformly favorable signaling effect, i.e., the mere presence of the IMF does not act as a strong seal of good housekeeping. Instead, the evidence is most consistent with a positive effect of IMF programs when they are viewed as likely to lead to policy reform and when undertaken before economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly. The size of the Fund’s program matters, but the credibility of a joint commitment by the country and the IMF appears to be critical.Programs, signaling, capital market access

Optimal Capital Income Taxation with Heterogeneous Firms

We study capital income taxation in a context where firms differ in productivity and, they decide whether to produce or not after comparing after-tax profits vis-`a-vis an outside alternative option. In our setup, the government taxes capital income, firms’ profits and labor income but does not tax the alternative outside option. In this context, taxation distorts the firms’ decisions to participate in production (extensive margin) as well as the investment decisions once they decide to produce (intensive margin). The key feature for the capital income tax being different from zero is the distortion in the extensive margin. When all firms choose to produce there is no such distortion and not taxing capital income is optimal. However, when some firms choose not to produce the optimal income tax rate is different from zero. The magnitude and sign of this tax depends on the sensibility of capital and labor demand to a change in the interest rate.

Sovereing Defaulters: Do International Capital Markets Punish Them?

We study empirically if countries that default on their debt experience a reduction in their> capital inflows as suggested by the literature. Our data contains information on (i) the defaulter countries and their creditors and (ii) bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. With this we can study how FDI flows are affected by sovereign default distinguishing among those coming from defaulters' creditor countries and others. According to our estimations, this distinction is crucial since the decline of FDI inflows after default is markedly concentrated on those flows originating in defaulters' creditor countries. The decay in FDI flows is higher in the years closer to the default date and for countries that have defaulted more times. We do not find evidence that countries shut their doors to defaulters' investment abroad, which is also a cost of default suggested in the literature.

Sovereign Defaulters: Do International Capital Markets Punish Them?

We study empirically if countries that default on their debt experience a reduction in their capital inflows as suggested by the literature. Our data contains information on (i) the defaulter countries and their creditors and (ii) bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. With this we can study how FDI flows are affected by sovereign default distinguishing among those coming from defaulters' creditor countries and others. According to our estimations, this distinction is crucial since the decline of FDI inflows after default is markedly concentrated on those flows originating in defaulters' creditor countries. The decay in FDI flows is higher in the years more proximate to the default date and for countries that have defaulted more times. We do not find evidence that countries shut their doors to defaulters' investment abroad, which is also a punishment suggested in the literature.

The problem of causality in corporate governance research: The case of governance indexes and firm valuation

In recent years the problem of the determination of causality has become an increasingly important question in the field of corporate governance. This paper reviews contemporary literature on the topic and finds that the current approach is to attempt to determine causality empirically and that the problem remains unresolved. After explaining the reasons why it is not possible to attempt to determine causality using real world data without falling prey to a logical fallacy, this paper discusses an approach to deal with the problem. In particular, the paper argues that the appropriate approach for the problem is to build theories, with causality featuring as a part of those theories, and then to test those theories both for logical and empirical consistency