Applying a system dynamics modelling approach to explore policy options for improving neonatal health in Uganda

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Advancing the application of systems thinking in health : understanding the dynamics of neonatal mortality in Uganda

Systems thinking in health encompasses linkages, interactions, feedbacks, and processes between elements that comprise a whole system, including the complexity of a disease or condition itself (such as neonatal mortality) and the systems within which they are interacting and evolving, in this case the health system. Data analysis and brainstorming sessions were used to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) depicting the causes of neonatal mortality. The study explores how systems thinking tools, more specifically CLDs and system dynamics modelling can help better understand the complexity underlying factors behind stagnant neonatal mortality rates in Uganda

The influence of fasting and post-load glucose levels on maternal and neonatal outcomes in women with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy in Uganda: A prospective observational cohort study.

AIMS: The study aims to evaluate the strength of fasting versus post-load glucose levels in predicting adverse outcomes in women with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP). METHODS: Women attending antenatal clinics in urban and peri-urban Uganda had oral glucose tolerance test between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation to screen for HIP, and were followed up to collect data on maternal and neonatal outcomes. Univariable and multivariable Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk adverse outcome associated with fasting hyperglycaemia alone post-load hyperglycaemia alone, or elevation of both fasting and post-load glucose levels. RESULTS: We included 3206 participants in the final analysis. HIP was associated with increased risk of Caesarean section, large for gestaional age babies, and neonatal intensive care admission. The risk was highest (2.54-fold compared to normal glycaemic women) when both FBG and post-load glucose levels were elevated. After adjustment for potential confounders, having elevated post-load glucose alone was not associated with increased risk of any of the outcomes, but elevated FBG alone increased the risk of Caesarian section by 1.36-fold. CONCLUSION: Fasting hyperglycemia appears to be more strongly associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes than post-load hyperglycaemia, but the risk is even higher in women with elevation of both fasting and post-load glucose levels

Antenatal management and maternal/fetal outcomes associated with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP) in Uganda; a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP) is associated with complications for both mother and baby. The prevalence of the condition is likely to increase across Africa as the continent undergoes a rapid demographic transition. However, little is known about the management and pregnancy outcomes associated with HIP in the region, particularly less severe forms of hyperglycaemia. It is therefore important to generate local data so that resources may be distributed effectively. The aim of this study was to describe the antenatal management and maternal/fetal outcomes associated with HIP in Ugandan women. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 2917 pregnant women in five major hospitals in urban/semi-urban central Uganda. Women were screened with oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 24-28 weeks of gestation. Cases of gestational diabetes (GDM) and diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) were identified (WHO 2013 diagnostic criteria) and received standard care. Data was collected on maternal demographics, anthropometrics, antenatal management, umbilical cord c-peptide levels, and pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy-six women were diagnosed with HIP (237 classified as GDM and 39 DIP). Women had between one and four fasting capillary blood glucose checks during third trimester. All received lifestyle advice, one quarter (69/276) received metformin therapy, and one woman received insulin. HIP was associated with large birthweight (unadjusted relative risk 1.30, 95% CI 1.00-1.68), Caesarean delivery (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.14-1.57) and neonatal hypoglycaemia (RR 4.37, 95% CI 1.36-14.1), but not perinatal mortality or preterm birth. Pregnancy outcomes were generally worse for women with DIP compared with GDM. CONCLUSION: HIP is associated with significant adverse pregnancy outcomes in this population, particularly overt diabetes in pregnancy. However pregnancy outcomes in women with milder forms of hyperglycaemia are similar to those with normoglycaemic pregnancies. Intervention strategies are required to improve current monitoring and management practice, and more research needed to understand if this is a cost-effective way of preventing poor perinatal outcomes

Adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with moderate elevations in blood pressure or blood glucose in Ugandan women; a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between overt hypertension and diabetes and adverse pregnancy outcomes is well documented. Recent evidence suggests that even moderate elevations in blood pressure or blood glucose may confer a significant risk in a dose-dependent manner. However, these studies have primarily been undertaken in white populations in high-income settings. Hypertension and diabetes are emerging as major public health issues in sub-Saharan Africa as the region undergoes rapid urbanization. It is therefore important to understand how such noncommunicable conditions contribute to pregnancy outcomes in these populations. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the association between stage 1 hypertension or fasting blood glucose in the gestational diabetes mellitus-range and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Uganda, and to describe the effects of other contributing factors such as maternal obesity. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study of 2857 women at 5 major hospitals in urban and semiurban central Uganda. Women were enrolled at 24 to 28 weeks' gestation. Data about the maternal demographics, anthropometrics, fasting venous blood glucose, blood pressure, and pregnancy outcomes were collected. Moderate elevations in blood pressure and blood glucose were defined using the latest American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association definition of stage 1 hypertension and the World Health Organization's criteria for fasting blood glucose in the gestational diabetes mellitus-range. The primary outcomes of interest were perinatal death and large birthweight for gestational age, and the secondary outcomes were preterm birth, cesarean delivery, and neonatal admission. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was used. RESULTS: Stage 1 hypertension increased the odds of perinatal death by more than 2-fold (adjusted odds ratio, 2.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-5.29), with a positive but insignificant association with preterm birth. Hyperglycemia in the gestational diabetes mellitus-range was associated with cesarean delivery only (adjusted odds ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.27). Maternal obesity increased the risk of having large birthweight babies (adjusted odds ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.74-3.02), a cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 2.17-3.48), and neonatal admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.30). CONCLUSION: Moderate elevations in blood pressure and maternal obesity are stronger predictors of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes than moderate elevations in blood glucose levels and should be the focus of intervention in these resource-poor settings. Further research is needed to determine the cost-effectiveness of identifying and managing moderate elevations in blood pressure and maternal obesity

A mixed-methods study of maternal health care utilisation in six referral hospitals in four sub-Saharan African countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: In sub-Saharan Africa, referral hospitals are important sources of key maternal health services, especially during a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study prospectively assessed the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal health service utilisation in six large referral hospitals in Guinea, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda during the first year of the pandemic. METHODS: Mixed-methods design combining three data sources: (1) quantitative data based on routine antenatal, childbirth and postnatal care data collected March 2019-February 2021, (2) qualitative data from recurring rounds of semi-structured interviews conducted July 2020-February 2021 with 22 maternity skilled heath personnel exploring their perceptions of service utilisation and (3) timeline data of COVID-19 epidemiology, global, national and hospital-level events. Qualitative and quantitative data were analysed separately, framed based on the timeline analysis and triangulated when reporting. RESULTS: Three periods including a first wave, slow period and second wave were identified. Maternal health service utilisation was lower during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic year in all but one selected referral hospital. During the pandemic, service utilisation was particularly lower during the waves and higher or stable during the slow period. Fear of being infected in hospitals, lack of transportation, and even when available, high cost of transportation and service closures were key reasons affecting utilisation during the waves. However, community perception that the pandemic was over or insinuation by Government of the same appeared to stabilise use of referral hospitals for childbirth. CONCLUSION: Utilisation of maternal health services across the continuum of care varied through the different periods and across countries. In crisis situations such as COVID-19, restrictions and service closures need to be implemented with consideration given to alternative options for women to access and use services. Information on measures put in place for safe hospital use should be communicated to women

A mixed-methods study of maternal health care utilisation in six referral hospitals in four sub-Saharan African countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction In sub-Saharan Africa, referral hospitals are important sources of key maternal health services, especially during a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study prospectively assessed the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal health service utilisation in six large referral hospitals in Guinea, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda during the first year of the pandemic. Methods Mixed-methods design combining three data sources: (1) quantitative data based on routine antenatal, childbirth and postnatal care data collected March 2019–February 2021, (2) qualitative data from recurring rounds of semi-structured interviews conducted July 2020–February 2021 with 22 maternity skilled heath personnel exploring their perceptions of service utilisation and (3) timeline data of COVID-19 epidemiology, global, national and hospital-level events. Qualitative and quantitative data were analysed separately, framed based on the timeline analysis and triangulated when reporting. Results Three periods including a first wave, slow period and second wave were identified. Maternal health service utilisation was lower during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic year in all but one selected referral hospital. During the pandemic, service utilisation was particularly lower during the waves and higher or stable during the slow period. Fear of being infected in hospitals, lack of transportation, and even when available, high cost of transportation and service closures were key reasons affecting utilisation during the waves. However, community perception that the pandemic was over or insinuation by Government of the same appeared to stabilise use of referral hospitals for childbirth. Conclusion Utilisation of maternal health services across the continuum of care varied through the different periods and across countries. In crisis situations such as COVID-19, restrictions and service closures need to be implemented with consideration given to alternative options for women to access and use services. Information on measures put in place for safe hospital use should be communicated to women