PATHOGEN EMERGENCE IN THE AGE OF PANDEMICS

The emergence of novel or previously rare pathogens is not new. Throughout recorded history, catastrophic mortality has followed the arrival of new infectious diseases to areas that had no previous experience with the offending agent. The second plague pandemic, more commonly known as the Black Death, was caused by a bacterium that originated in China but then spread throughout Asia, Europe, and Africa via the Silk Road and other routes of commerce. The emergence of rinderpest in Africa, associated with Asian cattle imported by European colonists, killed millions of domestic livestock and wild animal species in the 1890s. The result was widespread starvation—reports from Tanzania alone suggest that more than 60 percent of Maasai people died—the collapse of existing economic institutions, and long-term ecological changes associated with the loss of grazing animals. Transmission of chikungunya virus and Zika virus, two pathogens that are transmitted to people by mosquitoes, have recently been documented for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. Although pathogen emergence is not new, it remains a fascinating and terrifying topic. Recent emergence events have led to a wealth of books on the subject

Spillover of SARS-CoV-2 into novel wild hosts in North America: A conceptual model for perpetuation of the pathogen

There is evidence that the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, is of animal origin. As with a number of zoonotic pathogens, there is a risk of spillover into novel hosts. Here, we propose a hypothesized conceptual model that illustrates the mechanism whereby the SARS-CoV-2 could spillover from infected humans to naive wildlife hosts in North America. This proposed model is premised on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from human feces through municipal wastewater treatment plants into the natural aquatic environment where potential wildlife hosts become infected. We use the existing literature on human coronaviruses, including SARS CoV, to support the potential pathways and mechanisms in the conceptual model. Although we focus on North America, our conceptual model could apply to other parts of the globe as well

Potential role of wildlife in the USA in the event of a foot-and-mouth disease virus incursion

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) which affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed species. The FMD-free status of the USA and the tremendous economic impact of a virus incursion motivated the development of this evaluation of the potential role of wildlife in the event of a virus introduction. Additionally, this manuscript contains a summary of US vulnerabilities for viral incursion and persistence which focuses specifically on the possible role of wildlife. The legal movement of susceptible live animals, animal products, by-products and animal feed containing animal products pose a risk of virus introduction and spread. Additionally, the illegal movement of FMD-susceptible animals and their products and an act of bioterrorism present additional routes where FMDV could be introduced to the USA. Therefore, robust surveillance and rapid diagnostics in the face of a possible introduction are essential for detecting and controlling FMD as quickly as possible. Wildlife species and feral pigs present an added complexity in the case of FMDV introduction as they are typically not closely monitored or managed and there are significant logistical concerns pertaining to disease surveillance and control in these populations. Recommendations highlight the need to address existing knowledge gaps relative to the potential role of wildlife in FMDV introduction events

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs—with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places—and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts

An agent-based movement model to assess the impact of landscape fragmentation on disease transmission

Landscape changes can result in habitat fragmentation and reduced landscape connectivity, limiting the ability of animals to move across space and altering infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. In this study, we develop and implement an agent-based model to assess the impacts of animal movement behavior and landscape structure on disease dynamics. We model a susceptible/infective disease state system applicable to the transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus in bobcats in the urbanized landscape of coastal southern California. Our agent-based model incorporates animal movement behavior, pathogen prevalence, transmission probability, and habitat fragmentation to evaluate how these variables influence disease spread in urbanizing landscapes. We performed a sensitivity analysis by simulating the system under 4200 different combinations of model parameters and evaluating disease transmission outcomes. Our model reveals that host movement behavior and response to landscape features play a pivotal role in determining how habitat fragmentation influences disease dynamics. Importantly, interactions among habitat fragmentation and movement had non-linear and counter-intuitive effects on disease transmission. For example, the model predicts that an intermediate level of non-habitat permeability and directionality will result in the highest rates of between-patch disease transmission. Agent-based models serve as computational laboratories that provide a powerful approach for quantitatively and visually exploring the role of animal behavior and anthropogenic landscape change on contacts among agents and the spread of disease. Such questions are challenging to study empirically given that it is difficult or impossible to experimentally manipulate actual landscapes and the animals and pathogens that move through them. Modeling the relationship between habitat fragmentation, animal movement behavior, and disease spread will improve understanding of the spread of potentially destructive pathogens through wildlife populations, as well as domestic animals and humans

Adaptive risk-based targeted surveillance for foreign animal diseases at the wildlife-livestock interface

Animal disease surveillance is an important component of the national veterinary infrastructure to protect animal agriculture and facilitates identification of foreign animal disease (FAD) introduction. Once introduced, pathogens shared among domestic and wild animals are especially challenging to manage due to the complex ecology of spillover and spillback. Thus, early identification of FAD in wildlife is critical to minimize outbreak severity and potential impacts on animal agriculture as well as potential impacts on wildlife and biodiversity. As a result, national surveillance and monitoring programs that include wildlife are becoming increasingly common. Designing surveillance systems in wildlife or, more importantly, at the interface of wildlife and domestic animals, is especially challenging because of the frequent lack of ecological and epidemiological data for wildlife species and technical challenges associated with a lack of non-invasive methodologies. To meet the increasing need for targeted FAD surveillance and to address gaps in existing wildlife surveillance systems, we developed an adaptive risk-based targeted surveillance approach that accounts for risks in source and recipient host populations. The approach is flexible, accounts for changing disease risks through time, can be scaled from local to national extents and permits the inclusion of quantitative data or when information is limited to expert opinion. We apply this adaptive risk-based surveillance framework to prioritize areas for surveillance in wild pigs in the United States with the objective of early detection of three diseases: classical swine fever, African swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease. We discuss our surveillance framework, its application to wild pigs and discuss the utility of this framework for surveillance of other host species and diseases

Influenza A virus surveillance, infection and antibody persistence in snow geese (Anser caerulescens)

Some snow geese (Anser caerulescens) migrate between Eurasia and North America and exhibit high seroprevalence for influenza A viruses (IAVs). Hence, these birds might be expected to play a role in intercontinental dispersal of IAVs. Our objective in this manuscript was to characterize basic incidence and infection characteristics for snow geese to assess whether these birds are likely to significantly contribute to circulation of IAVs. Thus, we 1) estimated snow goose infection prevalence by summarizing \u3e 5,000 snow goose surveillance records, 2) experimentally infected snow geese with a low pathogenic IAV (H4N6) to assess susceptibility and infection dynamics and 3) characterized long-term antibody kinetics. Infection prevalence based on surveillance data for snow geese was 7.88%, higher than the infection rates found in other common North American goose species. In the experimental infection study, only 4 of 7 snow geese shed viral RNA. Shedding in infected birds peaked at moderate levels (mean peak 102.62 EID50 equivalents/mL) and was exclusively associated with the oral cavity. Serological testing across a year post-exposure showed all inoculated birds seroconverted regardless of detectable shedding. Antibody levels peaked at 10 days post-exposure and then waned to undetectable levels by 6 months. In sum, while broad-scale surveillance results showed comparatively high infection prevalence, the experimental infection study showed only moderate susceptibility and shedding. Consequently, additional work is needed to assess whether snow geese might exhibit higher levels of susceptibility and shedding rates when exposed to other IAV strains

Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination

Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

Using data on waterfowl band recoveries, we identified spatially explicit hotspots of concentrated waterfowl movement to predict occurrence and spatial spread of a novel influenza A virus (clade 2.3.4.4) introduced from Asia by waterfowl from an initial outbreak in North America in November 2014. In response to the outbreak, the hotspots of waterfowl movement were used to help guide sampling for clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in waterfowl as an early warning for the US poultry industry during the outbreak. After surveillance sampling of waterfowl, we tested whether there was greater detection of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses inside hotspots. We found that hotspots defined using kernel density estimates of waterfowl band recoveries worked well in predicting areas with higher prevalence of the viruses in waterfowl. This approach exemplifies the value of ecological knowledge in predicting risk to agricultural security

Intercontinental Movement of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4 Virus to the United States, 2021

We detected Eurasian-origin highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus belonging to the Gs/GD lineage, clade 2.3.4.4b, in wild waterfowl in 2 Atlantic coastal states in the United States. Bird banding data showed widespread movement of waterfowl within the Atlantic Flyway and between neighboring flyways and northern breeding grounds