Quantifying HIV transmission flow between high-prevalence hotspots and surrounding communities: a population-based study in Rakai, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: International and global organisations advocate targeting interventions to areas of high HIV prevalence (ie, hotspots). To better understand the potential benefits of geo-targeted control, we assessed the extent to which HIV hotspots along Lake Victoria sustain transmission in neighbouring populations in south-central Uganda. METHODS: We did a population-based survey in Rakai, Uganda, using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study. The study surveyed all individuals aged 15-49 years in four high-prevalence Lake Victoria fishing communities and 36 neighbouring inland communities. Viral RNA was deep sequenced from participants infected with HIV who were antiretroviral therapy-naive during the observation period. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer partial HIV transmission networks, including direction of transmission. Reconstructed networks were interpreted through data for current residence and migration history. HIV transmission flows within and between high-prevalence and low-prevalence areas were quantified adjusting for incomplete sampling of the population. FINDINGS: Between Aug 10, 2011, and Jan 30, 2015, data were collected for the Rakai Community Cohort Study. 25 882 individuals participated, including an estimated 75·7% of the lakeside population and 16·2% of the inland population in the Rakai region of Uganda. 5142 participants were HIV-positive (2703 [13·7%] in inland and 2439 [40·1%] in fishing communities). 3878 (75·4%) people who were HIV-positive did not report antiretroviral therapy use, of whom 2652 (68·4%) had virus deep-sequenced at sufficient quality for phylogenetic analysis. 446 transmission networks were reconstructed, including 293 linked pairs with inferred direction of transmission. Adjusting for incomplete sampling, an estimated 5·7% (95% credibility interval 4·4-7·3) of transmissions occurred within lakeside areas, 89·2% (86·0-91·8) within inland areas, 1·3% (0·6-2·6) from lakeside to inland areas, and 3·7% (2·3-5·8) from inland to lakeside areas. INTERPRETATION: Cross-community HIV transmissions between Lake Victoria hotspots and surrounding inland populations are infrequent and when they occur, virus more commonly flows into rather than out of hotspots. This result suggests that targeted interventions to these hotspots will not alone control the epidemic in inland populations, where most transmissions occur. Thus, geographical targeting of high prevalence areas might not be effective for broader epidemic control depending on underlying epidemic dynamics. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the Division of Intramural Research of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the World Bank, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Quantifying HIV transmission flow between high-prevalence hotspots and surrounding communities: a population-based study in Rakai, Uganda

Background International and global organisations advocate targeting interventions to areas of high HIV prevalence (ie, hotspots). To better understand the potential benefits of geo-targeted control, we assessed the extent to which HIV hotspots along Lake Victoria sustain transmission in neighbouring populations in south-central Uganda. Methods We did a population-based survey in Rakai, Uganda, using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study. The study surveyed all individuals aged 15–49 years in four high-prevalence Lake Victoria fishing communities and 36 neighbouring inland communities. Viral RNA was deep sequenced from participants infected with HIV who were antiretroviral therapy-naive during the observation period. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer partial HIV transmission networks, including direction of transmission. Reconstructed networks were interpreted through data for current residence and migration history. HIV transmission flows within and between high-prevalence and low-prevalence areas were quantified adjusting for incomplete sampling of the population. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Jan 30, 2015, data were collected for the Rakai Community Cohort Study. 25 882 individuals participated, including an estimated 75·7% of the lakeside population and 16·2% of the inland population in the Rakai region of Uganda. 5142 participants were HIV-positive (2703 [13·7%] in inland and 2439 [40·1%] in fishing communities). 3878 (75·4%) people who were HIV-positive did not report antiretroviral therapy use, of whom 2652 (68·4%) had virus deep-sequenced at sufficient quality for phylogenetic analysis. 446 transmission networks were reconstructed, including 293 linked pairs with inferred direction of transmission. Adjusting for incomplete sampling, an estimated 5·7% (95% credibility interval 4·4–7·3) of transmissions occurred within lakeside areas, 89·2% (86·0–91·8) within inland areas, 1·3% (0·6–2·6) from lakeside to inland areas, and 3·7% (2·3–5·8) from inland to lakeside areas. Interpretation Cross-community HIV transmissions between Lake Victoria hotspots and surrounding inland populations are infrequent and when they occur, virus more commonly flows into rather than out of hotspots. This result suggests that targeted interventions to these hotspots will not alone control the epidemic in inland populations, where most transmissions occur. Thus, geographical targeting of high prevalence areas might not be effective for broader epidemic control depending on underlying epidemic dynamics. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the Division of Intramural Research of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the World Bank, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Field evaluation of PIMA point-of-care CD4 testing in Rakai, Uganda.

To assess the accuracy of PIMA Point-of-Care (POC) CD4 testing in rural Rakai, Uganda.903 HIV positive persons attending field clinics provided a venous blood sample assessed on site using PIMA analyzers per manufacturer's specifications. The venous samples were then run on FACSCalibur flow cytometry at a central facility. The Bland-Altman method was used to estimate mean bias and 95% limits of agreement (LOA). Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated for a CD4 threshold of <350 and <500 cells/uL for antiretroviral eligibility.There was a high correlation between PIMA and FACSCalibur CD4 counts (r = 0.943, p<0.001). Relative to FACSCalibur, the PIMA POC CD4 had negative mean bias of -34.6 cells/uL (95% LOA: -219.8 to 150.6) overall. The dispersion at CD4<350 cells/uL was 5.1 cells/uL (95% LOA: -126.6 to 136.8). For a threshold of CD4<350 cells/uL, PIMA venous blood had a sensitivity of 88.6% (95%CI 84.8-92.4%), specificity of 87.5% (95%CI 84.9-90.1%), NPV of 94.9% (95%CI 93.1-96.7%), and PPV of 74.4% (95%CI 69.6-79.2%). PIMA sensitivity and PPV significantly increased to 96.1% and 88.3% respectively with increased threshold of 500 cells/uL.Overall, PIMA POC CD4 counts demonstrated negative bias compared to FACSCalibur. PIMA POC sensitivity improved significantly at a higher CD4 threshold of 500 than a 350 cells/uL threshold

Vaginal Cytomegalovirus Shedding Before and After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rakai, Uganda.

Vaginal shedding of cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA was determined longitudinally among 96 women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus 2, and CMV starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) during a placebo-controlled trial of HSV-2 suppression with acyclovir in Rakai, Uganda. Vaginal CMV was detected in 75 of 96 women (78.0%) and 379 of 1080 individual visits (35.1%). ART status, higher HIV RNA viral load before ART initiation, and younger age were significantly associated with increased frequency of CMV shedding (P &lt; .01). Compared to pre-ART, CMV shedding peaked from month 2 to month 4 after ART initiation, suggesting possible immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome. Further studies need to determine the clinical significance of asymptomatic CMV shedding

Vaginal Cytomegalovirus Shedding Before and After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rakai, Uganda.

Vaginal shedding of cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA was determined longitudinally among 96 women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus 2, and CMV starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) during a placebo-controlled trial of HSV-2 suppression with acyclovir in Rakai, Uganda. Vaginal CMV was detected in 75 of 96 women (78.0%) and 379 of 1080 individual visits (35.1%). ART status, higher HIV RNA viral load before ART initiation, and younger age were significantly associated with increased frequency of CMV shedding (P &lt; .01). Compared to pre-ART, CMV shedding peaked from month 2 to month 4 after ART initiation, suggesting possible immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome. Further studies need to determine the clinical significance of asymptomatic CMV shedding

Vaginal Cytomegalovirus Shedding Before and After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rakai, Uganda

Vaginal shedding of cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA was determined longitudinally among 96 women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus 2, and CMV starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) during a placebo-controlled trial of HSV-2 suppression with acyclovir in Rakai, Uganda. Vaginal CMV was detected in 75 of 96 women (78.0%) and 379 of 1080 individual visits (35.1%). ART status, higher HIV RNA viral load before ART initiation, and younger age were significantly associated with increased frequency of CMV shedding (P < .01). Compared to pre-ART, CMV shedding peaked from month 2 to month 4 after ART initiation, suggesting possible immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome. Further studies need to determine the clinical significance of asymptomatic CMV shedding

HIV serologically indeterminate individuals: Future HIV status and risk factors.

BackgroundIndeterminate HIV test results are common, but little is known about the evolution of indeterminate serology and its sociodemographic and behavioral correlates. We assessed future HIV serological outcomes for individuals with indeterminate results and associated factors in Rakai, Uganda.Methods115,944 serological results, defined by two enzyme immunoassay (EIAs), among 39,440 individuals aged 15-49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study were assessed. Indeterminate results were defined as contradictory EIAs. Modified Poisson regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to assess prevalence ratios (PRs) of subsequent HIV serological outcomes and factors associated with HIV indeterminate results.ResultsThe prevalence of HIV serologically indeterminate results was 4.9%. Indeterminate results were less likely among women than men (adjPR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71,0.81), in unmarried participants than married participants (adjPR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85,99), and in individuals with primary (adjPR 0.90, 95% CI 0.80,1.02), secondary (adjPR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73,0.96) and post-secondary (adjPR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60,0.94) education, relative to no education. The proportions of persons with indeterminate results progressing to HIV positive, negative or indeterminate results in subsequent visits was 5%, 71% and 24%, respectively.ConclusionHIV serologically indeterminate results were associated with gender and marital status. HIV surveillance programs should develop a protocol for reporting individuals with mixed or persistently indeterminate HIV results on multiple follow-up visits. Most indeterminate results became HIV-negative over time, but follow-up is still needed to detect positive serologies

Scatter plots of FACSCalibur Vs PIMA measurements.

<p>Scatter plots of FACSCalibur Vs PIMA measurements.</p

Bias results of PIMA Venous versus FACSCalibur measurements.

<p>Bias results of PIMA Venous versus FACSCalibur measurements.</p

Bland-Altman plots comparing FACSCalibur and PIMA venous measurements.

<p>Bland-Altman plots comparing FACSCalibur and PIMA venous measurements.</p