The duration of volcanic eruptions: empirical probabilistic forecasting models based on historic eruption data

The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning. A probabilistic model to forecast the duration of eruptions is presented here. The model relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. Datasets of historic eruptions from Mt. Etna (flank only), Kilauea, Piton de la Foumaise (PdlF) and Iceland have been compiled through a critical examination of existing literature and careful consideration of uncertainties in reported dates. The eruptions from Mt. Etna, Kilauea and PdlF are all basaltic effusive eruptions, however, the Icelandic dataset is more diverse and seven types of duration have been identified and are assessed independently. These datasets have also enabled an assessment of repose intervals (eruption end to eruption start) to be conducted. Eruption duration and repose interval data are modelled using exponential, Weibull, log-logistic and Burr type XII distributions with parameters found by maximum likelihood estimation. Log-logistic distributions are found to often provide the best-fit to the observed data. Survivor function statistics are applied to the best-fit theoretical distribution of each dataset and used to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an on-going eruption (having reached t days) exceeding a specified total duration and (c) the minimum duration associated with a given probability. Eruption duration analyses at individual volcanic systems show systematic variations with time and different time periods have different duration regimes. Comparisons of the erupted volumes associated with these duration regimes show that volume is an important control on eruption duration. Average eruption rates also determine eruption duration and comparisons of data from Kilauea, PdlF and volcanic systems from different regions of Iceland have led to the hypothesis that volcano spreading rate may have an important control on eruption rate and subsequently eruption duration

‘I Got it off my Chest’: An Examination of how Research Participation Improved the Mental Health of Women Engaging in Transactional Sex

Ecologic momentary assessment (EMA) is a form of close-ended diary writing. While it has been shown that participating in a study that incorporates EMA improves mental health of participants, no study to date has examined the pathways through which benefits may occur. For 4-weeks, twice-daily EMAs and weekly interviews captured mood, daily activities and HIV risk behavior of 25 women who engage in transactional sex. Qualitative analysis of exit interviews was performed to examine how participation impacted women's mental health. The majority of participants felt that EMAs heightened awareness of emotions and behavior. Most reported experiencing catharsis from the interviews; specifically, from having a non-judgmental, trusting listener. Participants felt responsible for completing tasks, a sense of accomplishment for completing the study, and altruism. This study demonstrates there are direct benefits associated with participation in an EMA and interview study

Veterinary services during the COVID pandemic: less stressful for cats and their carers?

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic saw major changes to small animal veterinary practice, many of which may have had an impact on stress in cats presented to the clinic. The aim of this study was to examine the nature of feline outpatient visits before and during the pandemic, and examine signs of stress noted in cats before, during and after these visits. METHODS: A questionnaire was used to gather data on cat owner experiences of visits to the veterinary clinic. Data were gathered on the owner’s most recent experience of a consultation, with consultations occurring in February 2020 or earlier coded as a standard consultation, and consultations occurring in March 2020 or later coded as COVID-19 consultations. RESULTS: A total of 371 responses were received, with 210 coded as standard consultations and 161 coded as COVID-19 consultations. Consultation type varied significantly between standard and COVID-19 consultations (P <0.001), with emergency consultations more frequent and preventive healthcare consultations less frequent during the COVID-19 pandemic. The area in which the owner and their cat waited also varied significantly between standard and COVID-19 consultations (P <0.001), with standard consultations more likely to involve time in a waiting room while COVID-19 consultations were often called straight in or waited outside the practice. Most owners notedbehaviours associated with stress in their cats, regardless of consultation type, although trying to hide or escape were noted more frequently for cats seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings suggest that outpatient visits to the veterinary clinic were stressful for cats both prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, but some measures taken during the pandemic, for example less use of waiting rooms, could be used alongside existing cat friendly measures to help to reduce stress in feline patients

The Unanticipated Benefits of Behavioral Assessments and Interviews on Anxiety, Self-Esteem and Depression Among Women Engaging in Transactional Sex

Women engaging in transactional sex have disproportional mental health co-morbidity and face substantial barriers to accessing social services. We hypothesized that participation in a longitudinal research study, with no overt intervention, would lead to short-term mental health improvements. For 4-weeks, 24 women disclosed information about their lives via twice daily cell-phone diaries and weekly interviews. We used t tests to compare self-esteem, anxiety, and depression at baseline and exit. Tests were repeated for hypothesized effect modifiers (e.g., substance abuse severity; age of sex work debut). For particularly vulnerable women (e.g., less educated, histories of abuse, younger initiation of sex work) participation in research conferred unanticipated mental health benefits. Positive interactions with researchers, as well as discussing lived experiences, may explain these effects. Additional studies are needed to confirm findings and identify mechanisms of change. This work contributes to the growing body of literature documenting that study participation improves mental health

How and why pet cats are fed the way they are:a self-reported owner survey

OBJECTIVES: This study used an owner-directed online questionnaire to collect data regarding their food and water provision for their pet cats. The survey was conducted in 2019.METHODS: The anonymous online 30-question survey was available via vetprofessionals.com.RESULTS: A total of 1172 cat owners fully completed the questionnaire. The respondents each owned a median of two cats (range 1-6). They reported being most strongly motivated to feed a particular ration because of palatability, observed and/or expected health benefits, or that the diet was/is perceived as 'natural'. The majority of owners (n = 946, 80.7%) fed their cats exclusively a commercially purchased complete wet food, dry kibble diet or mixture of both. Compared with a previous (unpublished) survey conducted by the same authors in 2013,1 there were substantial increases in the number of owners feeding therapeutic diets (26.6% vs 0.7%) and the inclusion of raw meat in cats' rations (15.6% vs 3.7%). The proportion of respondents providing at least one feeding station per cat was 83.1%, with significant use of enrichment feeding methods (29.1%).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Veterinarians need to be aware of changing trends in cat feeding to provide owners with appropriate support. Veterinary advice was frequently sought by owners and can be used as an opportunity to improve cat health and welfare, particularly in multi-cat households, but was not often influential to client decision making.</p