Climate changes in mangrove forests and salt marshes

This synthesis is framed within the scope of the Brazilian Benthic Coastal Habitat Monitoring Network (ReBentos WG 4: Mangroves and Salt Marshes), focusing on papers that examine biodiversity-climate interactions as well as human-induced factors including those that decrease systemic resilience. The goal is to assess difficulties related to the detection of climate and early warning signals from monitoring data. We also explored ways to circumvent some of the obstacles identified. Exposure and sensitivity of mangrove and salt marsh species and ecosystems make them extremely vulnerable to environmental impacts and potential indicators of sea level and climate-driven environmental change. However, the interpretation of shifts in mangroves and salt marsh species and systemic attributes must be scrutinized considering local and setting-level energy signature changes; including disturbance regime and local stressors, since these vary widely on a regional scale. The potential for adaptation and survival in response to climate change depends, in addition to the inherent properties of species, on contextual processes at the local, landscape, and regional levels that support resilience. Regardless of stressor type, because of the convergence of social and ecological processes, coastal zones should be targeted for anticipatory action to reduce risks and to integrate these ecosystems into adaptation strategies. Management must be grounded on proactive mitigation and collaborative action based on long-term ecosystem-based studies and well-designed monitoring programs that can 1) provide real-time early warning and 2) close the gap between simple correlations that provide weak inferences and process-based approaches that can yield increasingly reliable attribution and improved levels of anticipation.Esta é uma síntese enquadrada na Rede de Monitoramento de Habitats Bentônicos Costeiros (ReBentos, GT4: Manguezais e Marismas), embasada em literatura científica que examina interações entre clima e biodiversidade, assim como fatores antrópicos, incluindo aqueles responsáveis pela diminuição da resiliência sistêmica. O objetivo deste trabalho é determinar as dificuldades quanto à detecção de sinais precoces e alertas de mudanças climáticas com dados de monitoramento. No presente trabalho, também foram exploradas formas de contornar os diversos obstáculos identificados. A exposição e a sensitividade de espécies de mangue e de marisma, bem como dos ecossistemas dos quais fazem parte, os tornam extremamente vulneráveis e potenciais indicadores ambientais de mudanças de nível do mar e outras respostas às variações do clima. Entretanto, a interpretação de mudanças em manguezais e marismas e em seus atributos sistêmicos deve ser meticulosa, considerando assinatura energética, regime de distúrbios e pressões ambientais em cada local de estudo. Os potenciais de adaptação e de sobrevivência, em resposta a tais mudanças, dependem da fisiologia de cada espécie e dos processos contextuais onde reside a resiliência e a capacidade de persistir (em níveis local, de paisagem e regionais). A zona costeira deve ser alvo de medidas antecipatórias para redução de riscos por quaisquer impactos, uma vez que nela há intensa convergência de processos sociais e ecológicos. Os ecossistemas dessa zona devem ser integrados em estratégias de adaptação. O manejo costeiro deve ser embasado em mitigação pró-ativa e colaborativa de longo-termo, sempre com base em estudos ecossistêmicos e em programas de monitoramento que possam 1) prover sistema de alerta precoce; 2) preencher lacunas entre correlações simplistas que proveem inferências fracas, e abordagens baseadas em processos que levem a atribuições mais confiáveis e a melhores níveis de antecipação

Climate changes in mangrove forests and salt marshes

Abstract This synthesis is framed within the scope of the Brazilian Benthic Coastal Habitat Monitoring Network (ReBentos WG 4: Mangroves and Salt Marshes), focusing on papers that examine biodiversity-climate interactions as well as human-induced factors including those that decrease systemic resilience. The goal is to assess difficulties related to the detection of climate and early warning signals from monitoring data. We also explored ways to circumvent some of the obstacles identified. Exposure and sensitivity of mangrove and salt marsh species and ecosystems make them extremely vulnerable to environmental impacts and potential indicators of sea level and climate-driven environmental change. However, the interpretation of shifts in mangroves and salt marsh species and systemic attributes must be scrutinized considering local and setting-level energy signature changes; including disturbance regime and local stressors, since these vary widely on a regional scale. The potential for adaptation and survival in response to climate change depends, in addition to the inherent properties of species, on contextual processes at the local, landscape, and regional levels that support resilience. Regardless of stressor type, because of the convergence of social and ecological processes, coastal zones should be targeted for anticipatory action to reduce risks and to integrate these ecosystems into adaptation strategies. Management must be grounded on proactive mitigation and collaborative action based on long-term ecosystem-based studies and well-designed monitoring programs that can 1) provide real-time early warning and 2) close the gap between simple correlations that provide weak inferences and process-based approaches that can yield increasingly reliable attribution and improved levels of anticipation