Renewable build-up pathways for the US: Generation costs are not system costs

The transition to a future electricity system based primarily on wind and solar PV is examined for all regions in the contiguous US. We present optimized pathways for the build-up of wind and solar power for least backup energy needs as well as for least cost obtained with a simplified, lightweight model based on long-term high resolution weather-determined generation data. In the absence of storage, the pathway which achieves the best match of generation and load, thus resulting in the least backup energy requirements, generally favors a combination of both technologies, with a wind/solar PV energy mix of about 80/20 in a fully renewable scenario. The least cost development is seen to start with 100% of the technology with the lowest average generation costs first, but with increasing renewable installations, economically unfavorable excess generation pushes it toward the minimal backup pathway. Surplus generation and the entailed costs can be reduced significantly by combining wind and solar power, and/or absorbing excess generation, for example with storage or transmission, or by coupling the electricity system to other energy sectors.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

The clinical effectiveness of different parenting programmes for children with conduct problems : a systematic review of randomised controlled trials

Background Conduct problems are common, disabling and costly. The prognosis for children with conduct problems is poor, with outcomes in adulthood including criminal behaviour, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence, child abuse and a range of psychiatric disorders. There has been a rapid expansion of group based parent-training programmes for the treatment of children with conduct problems in a number of countries over the past 10 years. Existing reviews of parent training have methodological limitations such as inclusion of non-randomised studies, the absence of investigation for heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis or failure to report confidence intervals. The objective of the current study was to systematically review randomised controlled trials of parenting programmes for the treatment of children with conduct problems. Methods Standard systematic review methods were followed including duplicate inclusion decisions, data extraction and quality assessment. Twenty electronic databases from the fields of medicine, psychology, social science and education were comprehensively searched for RCTs and systematic reviews to February 2006. Inclusion criteria were: randomised controlled trial; of structured, repeatable parenting programmes; for parents/carers of children up to the age of 18 with a conduct problem; and at least one measure of child behaviour. Meta-analysis and qualitative synthesis were used to summarise included studies. Results 57 RCTs were included. Studies were small with an average group size of 21. Meta-analyses using both parent (SMD -0.67; 95% CI: -0.91, -0.42) and independent (SMD -0.44; 95% CI: -0.66, -0.23) reports of outcome showed significant differences favouring the intervention group. There was insufficient evidence to determine the relative effectiveness of different approaches to delivering parenting programmes. Conclusion Parenting programmes are an effective treatment for children with conduct problems. The relative effectiveness of different parenting programmes requires further research

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of parent training/education programmes for the treatment of conduct disorder, including oppositional defiant disorder, in children

Objectives: To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of parent training programmes for the treatment of children with conduct disorder ( CD) up to the age of 18 years. Data sources: Electronic databases. Review methods: For the effectiveness review, relevant studies were identified and evaluated. A quantitative synthesis of behavioural outcomes across trials was also undertaken using two approaches: vote counting and meta-analysis. The economic analysis consisted of reviewing previous economic/cost evaluations of parent training/education programmes and the economic information within sponsor's submissions; carrying out a detailed exploration of costs of parent training/education programmes; and a de novo modelling assessment of the cost-effectiveness of parent training/education programmes. The potential budget impact to the health service of implementing such programmes was also considered. Results: Many of the 37 randomised controlled trials that met the review inclusion and exclusion criteria were assessed as being of poor methodological quality. Studies were clinically heterogeneous in terms of the population, type of parent training/education programme and content, setting, delivery, length and child behaviour outcomes used. Both vote counting and meta-analysis revealed a consistent trend across all studies towards short-term effectiveness ( up to 4 months) of parent training/education programmes ( compared with control) as measured by a change in child behaviour. Pooled estimates showed a statistically significant improvement on the Eyberg Child Behaviour Inventory frequency and intensity scales, the Dyadic Parent - Child Interaction Coding System and the Child Behaviour Checklist. No studies reported a statistically significant result favouring control over parent training/education programmes. There were few statistically significant differences between different parent training/education programmes, although there was a trend towards more intensive interventions ( e. g. longer contact hours, additional child involvement) being more effective. The cost of treating CD is high, with costs incurred by many agencies. A recent study suggested that by age 28, costs for individuals with CD were around 10 times higher than for those with no problems, with a mean cost of 70,019 pound. Criminality incurs the greatest cost, followed by educational provision, foster and residential care and state benefits. Only a small proportion of these costs fall on health services. Using a 'bottom-up' costing approach, the costs per family of providing parent training/education programmes range from 629 pound to 3839 pound depending on the type and style of delivery. Using the conservative assumption that there are no cost savings from treatment, a total lifetime quality of life gain of 0.1 would give a cost per quality-adjusted life-year of between 38,393 pound and 6288 pound depending on the type of programme delivery and setting. Conclusions: Parent training/education programmes appear to be an effective and potentially cost-effective therapy for children with CD. However, the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different models ( such as therapy intensity and setting) require further investigation. Further research is required on the impact of parent training/education programmes on the quality of life of children with CD and their parents/carers, as well as on longer term child outcomes

Protocol for the feasibility and acceptability of a brief routine weight management intervention for postnatal women embedded within the national child immunisation programme: randomised controlled cluster feasibility trial with nested qualitative study (PIMMS-WL)

Introduction On average women retain 5-9kg one year after giving birth which can increase the risk of later obesity and chronic diseases. Some previous trials in this population have been effective in reducing weight, but are too intensive and costly to deliver at scale. There is a need for low-cost interventions to facilitate weight loss in this population. Methods and analysis The primary aim is to assess the feasibility of delivering a weight management intervention for overweight/obese postnatal women within child immunisation appointments. We will conduct a randomised controlled cluster feasibility trial with a nested qualitative study to assess study recruitment and acceptability of the intervention. GP practice (cluster) will be the unit of randomisation, with practices randomised to offer usual care plus the intervention or usual care only. 80 women will be recruited. The intervention group will be offered brief support that encourages self-management of weight when attending child immunisation appointments. Practice nurses will encourage women to weigh themselves weekly and record this, and to make healthy lifestyle choices through using an online weight management programme. Women will be advised to aim for 0.5-1kg/week weight loss. At each child immunisation the nurse will assess progress by weighing women. The comparator group will receive a healthy lifestyle leaflet. Data on weight, body fat, depression, anxiety, body-image, eating behaviours and physical activity will be collected at baseline and follow-up. Women and nurses will be interviewed to ascertain their views about the intervention. The decision to proceed to the phase III trial will be based on pre-specified stop-go criteria. Ethics and Dissemination Data will be stored securely at the University of Birmingham. Results will be disseminated through academic publications and presentations and will inform a possible phase III trial. The National Research Ethics Committee approved the study protocol. Trial Registration number: ISRCTN1220933

Designed switch from covalent to non-covalent inhibitors of carboxylesterase Notum activity

N-Acyl indolines 4 are potent, non-covalent Notum inhibitors developed from a covalent virtual screening hit 2a. The lead compounds were simple to synthesise, achieved excellent potency in a biochemical Notum-OPTS assay and restored Wnt signalling in a cell-based TCF/LEF reporter assay. Multiple high resolution X-ray structures established a common binding mode of these inhibitors with the indoline bound centred in the palmiteolate pocket with key interactions being aromatic stacking and a water mediated hydrogen bond to the oxyanion hole. These N-acyl indolines 4 will be useful tools for use in vitro studies to investigate the role of Notum in disease models, especially when paired with a structurally related covalent inhibitor (e.g. 4w and 2a). Overall, this study highlights the designed switch from covalent to non-covalent Notum inhibitors and so illustrates a complementary approach for hit generation and target inhibition

Practice nurse-supported weight self-management delivered within the national child immunisation programme for postnatal women:a feasibility cluster RCT

Background: Pregnancy is a high-risk time for excessive weight gain. The rising prevalence of obesity in women, combined with excess weight gain during pregnancy, means that there are more women with obesity in the postnatal period. This can have adverse health consequences for women in later life and increases the health risks during subsequent pregnancies. Objective: The primary aim was to produce evidence of whether or not a Phase III trial of a brief weight management intervention, in which postnatal women are encouraged by practice nurses as part of the national child immunisation programme to self-monitor their weight and use an online weight management programme, is feasible and acceptable. Design: The research involved a cluster randomised controlled feasibility trial and two semistructured interview studies with intervention participants and practice nurses who delivered the intervention. Trial data were collected at baseline and 3 months later. The interview studies took place after trial follow-up. Setting: The trial took place in Birmingham, UK. Participants: Twenty-eight postnatal women who were overweight/obese were recruited via Birmingham Women’s Hospital or general practices. Nine intervention participants and seven nurses were interviewed. Interventions: The intervention was delivered in the context of the national child immunisation programme. The intervention group were offered brief support that encouraged self-management of weight when they attended their practice to have their child immunised at 2, 3 and 4 months of age. The intervention involved the provision of motivation and support by nurses to encourage participants to make healthier lifestyle choices through self-monitoring of weight and signposting to an online weight management programme. The role of the nurse was to provide regular external accountability for weight loss. Women were asked to weigh themselves weekly and record this on a record card in their child’s health record (‘red book’) or using the online programme. The behavioural goal was for women to lose 0.5-1 kg per week. The usual-care group received a healthy lifestyle leaflet. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the feasibility of a Phase III trial to test the effectiveness of the intervention, as assessed against three traffic-light stop-go criteria (recruitment, adherence to regular self-weighing and registration with an online weight management programme). Results: The traffic-light criteria results were red for recruitment (28/80, 35% of target), amber for registration with the online weight loss programme (9/16, 56%) and green for adherence to weekly self-weighing (10/16, 63%). Nurses delivered the intervention with high fidelity. In the qualitative studies, participants indicated that the intervention was acceptable to them and they welcomed receiving support to lose weight at their child immunisation appointments. Although nurses raised some caveats to implementation, they felt that the intervention was easy to deliver and that it would motivate postnatal women to lose weight. Limitations: Fewer participants were recruited than planned. Conclusions: Although women and practice nurses responded well to the intervention and adherence to self-weighing was high, recruitment was challenging and there is scope to improve engagement with the intervention.Future work: Future research should focus on investigating other methods of recruitment and, thereafter, testing the effectiveness of the intervention.Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12209332.Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 49. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.</p

The First Provenance Challenge

The first Provenance Challenge was set up in order to provide a forum for the community to help understand the capabilities of different provenance systems and the expressiveness of their provenance representations. To this end, a Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging workflow was defined, which participants had to either simulate or run in order to produce some provenance representation, from which a set of identified queries had to be implemented and executed. Sixteen teams responded to the challenge, and submitted their inputs. In this paper, we present the challenge workflow and queries, and summarise the participants contributions

Design of a Potent, Selective, and Brain-Penetrant Inhibitor of Wnt-Deactivating Enzyme Notum by Optimization of a Crystallographic Fragment Hit

Notum is a carboxylesterase that suppresses Wnt signaling through deacylation of an essential palmitoleate group on Wnt proteins. There is a growing understanding of the role Notum plays in human diseases such as colorectal cancer and Alzheimer's disease, supporting the need to discover improved inhibitors, especially for use in models of neurodegeneration. Here, we have described the discovery and profile of 8l (ARUK3001185) as a potent, selective, and brain-penetrant inhibitor of Notum activity suitable for oral dosing in rodent models of disease. Crystallographic fragment screening of the Diamond-SGC Poised Library for binding to Notum, supported by a biochemical enzyme assay to rank inhibition activity, identified 6a and 6b as a pair of outstanding hits. Fragment development of 6 delivered 8l that restored Wnt signaling in the presence of Notum in a cell-based reporter assay. Assessment in pharmacology screens showed 8l to be selective against serine hydrolases, kinases, and drug targets