Ancestral Causal Inference

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-of-the-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it on a challenging protein data set.Comment: In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29 (NIPS 2016

Learning Dynamic Attribute-factored World Models for Efficient Multi-object Reinforcement Learning

In many reinforcement learning tasks, the agent has to learn to interact with many objects of different types and generalize to unseen combinations and numbers of objects. Often a task is a composition of previously learned tasks (e.g. block stacking). These are examples of compositional generalization, in which we compose object-centric representations to solve complex tasks. Recent works have shown the benefits of object-factored representations and hierarchical abstractions for improving sample efficiency in these settings. On the other hand, these methods do not fully exploit the benefits of factorization in terms of object attributes. In this paper, we address this opportunity and introduce the Dynamic Attribute FacTored RL (DAFT-RL) framework. In DAFT-RL, we leverage object-centric representation learning to extract objects from visual inputs. We learn to classify them in classes and infer their latent parameters. For each class of object, we learn a class template graph that describes how the dynamics and reward of an object of this class factorize according to its attributes. We also learn an interaction pattern graph that describes how objects of different classes interact with each other at the attribute level. Through these graphs and a dynamic interaction graph that models the interactions between objects, we can learn a policy that can then be directly applied in a new environment by just estimating the interactions and latent parameters. We evaluate DAFT-RL in three benchmark datasets and show our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art in generalizing across unseen objects with varying attributes and latent parameters, as well as in the composition of previously learned tasks

An Upper Bound for Random Measurement Error in Causal Discovery

Causal discovery algorithms infer causal relations from data based on several assumptions, including notably the absence of measurement error. However, this assumption is most likely violated in practical applications, which may result in erroneous, irreproducible results. In this work we show how to obtain an upper bound for the variance of random measurement error from the covariance matrix of measured variables and how to use this upper bound as a correction for constraint-based causal discovery. We demonstrate a practical application of our approach on both simulated data and real-world protein signaling data.Comment: Published in Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-18

Graph Switching Dynamical Systems

Dynamical systems with complex behaviours, e.g. immune system cells interacting with a pathogen, are commonly modelled by splitting the behaviour into different regimes, or modes, each with simpler dynamics, and then learning the switching behaviour from one mode to another. Switching Dynamical Systems (SDS) are a powerful tool that automatically discovers these modes and mode-switching behaviour from time series data. While effective, these methods focus on independent objects, where the modes of one object are independent of the modes of the other objects. In this paper, we focus on the more general interacting object setting for switching dynamical systems, where the per-object dynamics also depends on an unknown and dynamically changing subset of other objects and their modes. To this end, we propose a novel graph-based approach for switching dynamical systems, GRAph Switching dynamical Systems (GRASS), in which we use a dynamic graph to characterize interactions between objects and learn both intra-object and inter-object mode-switching behaviour. We introduce two new datasets for this setting, a synthesized ODE-driven particles dataset and a real-world Salsa Couple Dancing dataset. Experiments show that GRASS can consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.Comment: ICML 202

Who are we talking about? Identifying scientific populations online

In this paper, we begin to address the question of which scientists are online. Prior studies have shown that Web users are only a segmented reflection of the actual off-line population, and thus when studying online behaviors we need to be explicit about the representativeness of the sample under study to accurately relate trends to populations. When studying social phenomena on the Web, the identification of individuals is essential to be able to generalize about specific segments of a population off-line. Specifically, we present a method for assessing the online activity of a known set of actors. The method is tailored to the domain of science. We apply the method to a population of Dutch computer scientists and their coauthors. The results when combined with metadata of the set provide insights into the representativeness of the sample of interest. The study results show that scientists of above-average tenure and performance are overrepresented online, suggesting that when studying online behaviors of scientists we are commenting specifically on the behaviors of above-average-performing scientists. Given this finding, metrics of Web behaviors of science may provide a key tool for measuring knowledge production and innovation at a faster rate than traditional delayed bibliometric studies

Modulated Neural ODEs

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have been proven useful for learning non-linear dynamics of arbitrary trajectories. However, current NODE methods capture variations across trajectories only via the initial state value or by auto-regressive encoder updates. In this work, we introduce Modulated Neural ODEs (MoNODEs), a novel framework that sets apart dynamics states from underlying static factors of variation and improves the existing NODE methods. In particular, we introduce $\textit{time-invariant modulator variables}$ that are learned from the data. We incorporate our proposed framework into four existing NODE variants. We test MoNODE on oscillating systems, videos and human walking trajectories, where each trajectory has trajectory-specific modulation. Our framework consistently improves the existing model ability to generalize to new dynamic parameterizations and to perform far-horizon forecasting. In addition, we verify that the proposed modulator variables are informative of the true unknown factors of variation as measured by $R^2$ scores

Risk-based decision making: estimands for sequential prediction under interventions

Prediction models are used amongst others to inform medical decisions on interventions. Typically, individuals with high risks of adverse outcomes are advised to undergo an intervention while those at low risk are advised to refrain from it. Standard prediction models do not always provide risks that are relevant to inform such decisions: e.g., an individual may be estimated to be at low risk because similar individuals in the past received an intervention which lowered their risk. Therefore, prediction models supporting decisions should target risks belonging to defined intervention strategies. Previous works on prediction under interventions assumed that the prediction model was used only at one time point to make an intervention decision. In clinical practice, intervention decisions are rarely made only once: they might be repeated, deferred and re-evaluated. This requires estimated risks under interventions that can be reconsidered at several potential decision moments. In the current work, we highlight key considerations for formulating estimands in sequential prediction under interventions that can inform such intervention decisions. We illustrate these considerations by giving examples of estimands for a case study about choosing between vaginal delivery and cesarean section for women giving birth. Our formalization of prediction tasks in a sequential, causal, and estimand context provides guidance for future studies to ensure that the right question is answered and appropriate causal estimation approaches are chosen to develop sequential prediction models that can inform intervention decisions.Comment: 32 pages, 2 figure