Development of a prediction model for postoperative pneumonia A multicentre prospective observational study

BACKGROUND Postoperative pneumonia is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and costs. Prediction models of pneumonia that are currently available are based on retrospectively collected data and administrative coding systems. OBJECTIVE To identify independent variables associated with the occurrence of postoperative pneumonia. DESIGN A prospective observational study of a multicentre cohort (Prospective Evaluation of a RIsk Score for postoperative pulmonary COmPlications in Europe database). SETTING Sixty-three hospitals in Europe. PATIENTS Patients undergoing surgery under general and/or regional anaesthesia during a 7-day recruitment period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The primary outcome was postoperative pneumonia. Definition: the need for treatment with antibiotics for a respiratory infection and at least one of the following criteria: new or changed sputum; new or changed lung opacities on a clinically indicated chest radiograph; temperature more than 38.3 degrees C; leucocyte count more than 12 000 mu l(-1). RESULTS Postoperative pneumonia occurred in 120 out of 5094 patients (2.4%). Eighty-two of the 120 (68.3%) patients with pneumonia required ICU admission, compared with 399 of the 4974 (8.0%) without pneumonia (P < 0.001). We identified five variables independently associated with postoperative pneumonia: functional status [odds ratio (OR) 2.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.58 to 3.12], pre-operative SpO(2) values while breathing room air (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.84), intra-operative colloid administration (OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.94 to 3.99), intra-operative blood transfusion (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.41 to 4.71) and surgical site (open upper abdominal surgery OR 3.98, 95% CI 2.19 to 7.59). The model had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.89) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.572). CONCLUSION We identified five variables independently associated with postoperative pneumonia. The model performed well and after external validation may be used for risk stratification and management of patients at risk of postoperative pneumonia

Post-anaesthesia pulmonary complications after use of muscle relaxants (POPULAR): a multicentre, prospective observational study

Background Results from retrospective studies suggest that use of neuromuscular blocking agents during general anaesthesia might be linked to postoperative pulmonary complications. We therefore aimed to assess whether the use of neuromuscular blocking agents is associated with postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a multicentre, prospective observational cohort study. Patients were recruited from 211 hospitals in 28 European countries. We included patients (aged ≥18 years) who received general anaesthesia for any in-hospital procedure except cardiac surgery. Patient characteristics, surgical and anaesthetic details, and chart review at discharge were prospectively collected over 2 weeks. Additionally, each patient underwent postoperative physical examination within 3 days of surgery to check for adverse pulmonary events. The study outcome was the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications from the end of surgery up to postoperative day 28. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for surgical factors and patients’ preoperative physical status, providing adjusted odds ratios (ORadj) and adjusted absolute risk reduction (ARRadj). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01865513. Findings Between June 16, 2014, and April 29, 2015, data from 22803 patients were collected. The use of neuromuscular blocking agents was associated with an increased incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications in patients who had undergone general anaesthesia (1658 [7·6%] of 21694); ORadj 1·86, 95% CI 1·53–2·26; ARRadj –4·4%, 95% CI –5·5 to –3·2). Only 2·3% of high-risk surgical patients and those with adverse respiratory profiles were anaesthetised without neuromuscular blocking agents. The use of neuromuscular monitoring (ORadj 1·31, 95% CI 1·15–1·49; ARRadj –2·6%, 95% CI –3·9 to –1·4) and the administration of reversal agents (1·23, 1·07–1·41; –1·9%, –3·2 to –0·7) were not associated with a decreased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Neither the choice of sugammadex instead of neostigmine for reversal (ORadj 1·03, 95% CI 0·85–1·25; ARRadj –0·3%, 95% CI –2·4 to 1·5) nor extubation at a train-of-four ratio of 0·9 or more (1·03, 0·82–1·31; –0·4%, –3·5 to 2·2) was associated with better pulmonary outcomes. Interpretation We showed that the use of neuromuscular blocking drugs in general anaesthesia is associated with an increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Anaesthetists must balance the potential benefits of neuromuscular blockade against the increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications