Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Methylprednisolone abuse: Report of two cases and review of literature

Steroids are known to have mood-elevating effects and are commonly used by quacks for various medical ailments. In this report, we present two cases, who were started on corticosteroids for somatic symptoms, who continued to abuse the steroids and became dependent on the same because of the mood-elevating effect and feeling of general well-being with these medications

Unusual cases of succubus: A cultural phenomenon manifesting as part of psychopathology

Succubus is also known as demon female lover who approaches males in their dreams to have sex. This is the phenomenon which is rarely described in psychiatric literature. It is more identified as a cultural belief in different religions. We report the two cases diagnosed with schizophrenia, who reported this rare phenomenon of succubus as part of their psychopathology and discuss the phenomenon of succubus

An unusual case of self-inflicted stab injury to brain under alcohol intoxication without any behavioral or cognitive sequelae

Intracranial injuries related to trauma, homicidal attacks, gunshot, or accidental injuries are commonly seen in emergency department. However, self-inflicted intracranial injuries are rarely described. In this report, we present a case of self-inflicted injury to the brain, by a male, under the influence of alcohol without any behavioral or cognitive sequelae

Dropout rates and reasons for dropout from treatment among elderly patients with depression

Background: Adherence to medical treatment is a major challenge. A significant proportion of patient's dropout of treatment after the initial visit. Little is known about the reasons for such high dropouts. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the dropout rates and reasons for dropout from treatment among elderly patients with depression attending a tertiary care psychiatry outpatient facility. Methodology: One hundred and forty consecutive new patients aged 60 years or more, attending the psychiatry walk-in clinic, diagnosed with depressive disorders were assessed at baseline and then contacted at 6 months and 1 year to evaluate the follow-up status and reasons for dropout of treatment. Results: Out of the 140 participants, 132 could be contacted after initial registration with the clinic. About two-fifths (n = 58; 41.4%) never return back to the clinic after the first visit. By 6 months and 1 year, 105 (75%) and 126 (90%) patients had dropped out of treatment. When the reason for dropout of those who dropped out “very early (i.e., never returned back)” were evaluated, the most common reason for dropout was “no relief” of symptoms, and this was closely followed by complete relief of symptoms. Among those who followed up at least once, but had dropped out at 6 months, the most common reason for dropout was complete relief of symptoms, and this was closely followed by “no relief” and “worsening of illness” being the other common reasons of dropout. Among those who dropped out after 6 months, the most common reason for dropout was complete relief of symptoms. None of the demographic variable emerged as a predictor of dropout at any time point. Few clinical variables were associated with dropout of treatment. Conclusion: Very high proportion of elderly patients with depression dropout of treatment prematurely. Providing proper information to the patients at each visit can help in reducing the treatment dropout rates

Association of Cognitive and Noncognitive Symptoms of Delirium: A Study from Consultation-liaison Psychiatry Set-up

Aims: This study aims to evaluate the cognitive functions of patients with delirium using Hindi Mental Status Examination (HMSE), to study the correlation of cognitive functions assessed by HMSE with noncognitive symptoms as assessed using Delirium Rating Scale-Revised 1998 (DRS-R-98) and to study the association of cognitive functions assessed using HMSE and DRS-R98. Methods: A total of 76 consecutive patients fulfilling the diagnosis of delirium were evaluated on DRS-R-98, HMSE, and Short Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (retrospective IQCODE). Results: The mean DRS-R-98 score 33.9 (standard deviation [SD] - 7.2) and the mean DRS-R-98 severity score was 25.9 (SD - 7.2). The mean score on HMSE was 19.3 (7.98). There were significant correlations of all the domains of HMSE with DRS-R-98 total score, DRS-R-98 severity score, DRS-R-98 cognitive subscale score, DRS-R-98 noncognitive domain subscale score, and DRS severity score without attention score. When the association of each item of DRS-R-98 and HMSE was evaluated, except for the items of delusions, lability of affect and motor retardation, there were significant negative association between all the items of DRS-R-98 and HMSE, indicating that higher severity of cognitive symptoms as assessed on HMSE is associated with higher severity of all the cognitive symptoms and most of the noncognitive symptoms as assessed by DRS-R-98. Conclusion: The present study suggests that attention deficits in patients with delirium influence the severity of cognitive and noncognitive symptoms of delirium. Further, the present study suggests an increase in the severity of cognitive symptoms in other domains is also associated with an increase in the severity of noncognitive symptoms of delirium

Symptom profile of depression in elderly: Is assessment with geriatric depression rating scale enough?

Aim of the Study: This study aimed to evaluate the symptom profile, including somatic symptoms among elderly patients with first episode depression using the Geriatric depression scale (GDS-30) and Patient Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15) items version scale. Additional aims were to carry out the factor analysis of symptoms reported on GDS-30 and PHQ-15 among elderly. Methodology: Seventy-nine elderly patients (age ≥60 years) were evaluated on GDS-30 item Hindi version and Hindi version of the PHQ-15. Results: As per GDS-30, the most common symptom noted among elderly was “dropped many of your activities and interests” (91.1%), mind not as clear as it used (88.6%), feeling that life is empty (86.1%), bothered by thoughts you cannot get out of your head (86.1%) and hard to get started on new projects (86.1%), prefer to avoid social gatherings (86.1%). All patients reported at least one somatic complaint as per PHQ-15. The most common somatic symptoms were trouble sleeping (97.5%), feeling tired or having little energy (96.2%), feeling that the heart is racing (52.9%), constipation, loose bowels, or diarrhea (49.6%), shortness of breath (46.8%), nausea, gas or indigestion (45.6%), pain in the arms, legs, or joints (43.3%), and back pain (41.8%). The prevalence of somatic symptoms was not influenced to a large extent by the demographic variables, clinical variables and presence or absence of physical comorbidity. However, the severity of somatic symptoms correlated positively with GDS-30 score. Factor analysis of Hindi version of GDS-30 yielded a four-factor solution, which was similar to many studies across the world. The addition of items of PHQ-15 items of factor analysis still yielded a four-factor solution. Factor 1 of combined GDS-30 and PHQ-15 items included items only from GDS-30 and Factor 3 and 4 included items only from PHQ-15. There was some overlap of items on Factor 2. Conclusion: The present study suggests that GDS-30 does not tap all the symptoms of depression among elderly in the Indian context. Further, the present study shows that GDS-30 is not a one-dimensional scale. Accordingly, the symptom evaluation among elderly depressed patient should go beyond GDS-30

Trichophagia along with trichobezoar in the absence of trichotillomania

Trichobezoars are rarely described in the absence of trichotillomania. In this report we present a case of trichobezoar associated with trichophagia in the absence of trichotillomania. A 16-year-old girl presented to surgery outpatient with complaints of pain in abdomen and vomiting for the last 6 months. Physical examination revealed a 14 × 16 cm firm, tender, mass with smooth surface, irregular margins, which was mobile with respiration. Ultrasound abdomen revealed a bizarre lesion in the right upper and middle abdomen suggestive of gastric bezoars. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy did not reveal any abnormality in the esophagus and showed a large mobile mass in the stomach. In view of trichobezoar, psychiatry consultation was sought. Exploration of history revealed that the patient was eating hairs and clay since early childhood. As per patient she would eat hairs thrown by others. She would like the taste of hair and had strong persistent desire to eat hair and would go out searching for the same. At times she would also eat clay. However, she denied of pulling her own hairs. Physical examination of scalp and other body parts did not show any evidence of alopecia or pulling of hair/short hair. She was managed surgically and was counseled about the consequences of eating hairs and clays and was encouraged not to eat hair. To conclude our case suggests that patients can have trichobezoar and trichophagia even in the absence of trichotillomania