The politics of autocratic survival in Equatorial Guinea: co-optation, restrictive institutional rules, repression, and international projection

Equatorial Guinea is not only one of the world’s most authoritarian regimes but also a striking case of regime and leader survival. This small, oil-rich state and personalist regime defies conventional wisdom because it is both far more resilient and faces far fewer threats from within the regime and from opposition political parties than other resource-rich states. But how does the regime manage to survive? This study argues that four key mechanisms interact to explain Equatorial Guinea’s record of authoritarian survival. Firstly, co-optation (via patronage, party, and cabinet appointments) which President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and the regime party—Partido democrático de guinea ecuatorial—have used to build internal cohesion and fragment opposition. Secondly, the crafting of restrictive institutional rules (party and electoral laws) that, combined with informal rules, aim to protect the regime’s interests and make participation in political opposition more costly. Thirdly, the use of (selective and diffuse) repression to shield the regime and shrink the living space of challengers. Finally, the regime’s international linkages and projection to gain credibility and offset pressure for change. We argue that autocrats’ survival depends on their ability to play a strategic two-level game: domestic and international.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Neutrino flux predictions for known Galactic microquasars

It has been proposed recently that Galactic microquasars may be prodigious emitters of TeV neutrinos that can be detected by upcoming km^2 neutrino telescopes. In this paper we consider a sample of identified microquasars and microquasar candiates, for which available data enables rough determination of the jet parameters. By employing the parameters inferred from radio observations of various jet ejection events, we determine the neutrino fluxes that should have been produced during these events by photopion production in the jet. Despite the large uncertainties in our analysis, we demonstrate that in several of the sources considered, the neutrino flux at Earth, produced in events similar to those observed, would exceed the detection threshold of a km^2 neutrino detector. The class of microquasars may contain also sources with bulk Lorentz factors larger than those characteristic of the sample considered here, directed along our line of sight. Such sources, which may be very difficult to resolve at radio wavelengths and hence may be difficult to identify as microqusar candidates, may emit neutrinos with fluxes significantly larger than typically obtained in the present analysis. These sources may eventually be identified through their neutrino and gamma-ray emission.Comment: 17 pages. Submitted to Ap

Who gets what? The interactive effect of MPs’ sex in committee assignments in Portugal

This article investigates the role of key individual-level factors, namely expertise, seniority and preferences in women’s assignments to legislative committees. It focuses on Portugal and draws on biographical data on MPs in five elections until 2009 and interviews with 20 legislators in 2014. The results show that female and male MPs have a similar probability of being appointed to powerful and economic issue committees, but female MPs are more likely to be appointed to social issue committees regardless of expertise and seniority. Although this outcome might be the product of their own preferences, it is influenced by embedded gender norms.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio