Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case

The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes

Transcriptional profiling of circulating tumor cells in multiple myeloma: a new model to understand disease dissemination

The reason why a few myeloma cells egress from the bone marrow (BM) into peripheral blood (PB) remains unknown. Here, we investigated molecular hallmarks of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) to identify the events leading to myeloma trafficking into the bloodstream. After using next-generation flow to isolate matched CTCs and BM tumor cells from 32 patients, we found high correlation in gene expression at single-cell and bulk levels (r ≥ 0.94, P = 10−16), with only 55 genes differentially expressed between CTCs and BM tumor cells. CTCs overexpressed genes involved in inflammation, hypoxia, or epithelial–mesenchymal transition, whereas genes related with proliferation were downregulated in CTCs. The cancer stem cell marker CD44 was overexpressed in CTCs, and its knockdown significantly reduced migration of MM cells towards SDF1-α and their adhesion to fibronectin. Approximately half (29/55) of genes differentially expressed in CTCs were prognostic in patients with newly-diagnosed myeloma (n = 553; CoMMpass). In a multivariate analysis including the R-ISS, overexpression of CENPF and LGALS1 was significantly associated with inferior survival. Altogether, these results help understanding the presence of CTCs in PB and suggest that hypoxic BM niches together with a pro-inflammatory microenvironment induce an arrest in proliferation, forcing tumor cells to circulate in PB and seek other BM niches to continue growing.This study was supported by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red —Área de Oncología— del Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERONC; CB16/12/00369, CB16/12/00489, and CB16/12/00400), Cancer Research UK, FCAECC and AIRC under the Accelerator Award Programme, Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer by ERA-NET TRANSCAN-2 Programme (AC17/00101), the Black Swan Research Initiative of the International Myeloma Foundation, the European Research Council (ERC) 2015 Starting Grant (MYELOMANEXT, 680200), the Czech Science Foundation through Project No. 19-25354Y, the European Regional Development Fund—Project ENOCH (No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000868), and the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic (15-29667A).Peer reviewe