Systems science for developing policy to improve physical activity, the Caribbean.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Physical Activity recommends adopting a systems approach to implementing and tailoring actions according to local contexts. We held group model-building workshops with key stakeholders in the Caribbean region to develop a causal loop diagram to describe the system driving the increasing physical inactivity in the region and envision the most effective ways of intervening in that system to encourage and promote physical activity. We used the causal loop diagram to inform how the WHO Global Action Plan on Physical Activity might be adapted to a local context. Although the WHO recommendations aligned well with our causal loop diagram, the diagram also illustrates the importance of local context in determining how interventions should be coordinated and implemented. Some interventions included creating safe physical activity spaces for both sexes, tackling negative attitudes to physical activity in certain contexts, including in schools and workplaces, and improving infrastructure for active transport. The causal loop diagram may also help understand how policies may be undermined or supported by key actors or where policies should be coordinated. We demonstrate how, in a region with a high level of physical inactivity and low resources, applying systems thinking with relevant stakeholders can help the targeted adaptation of global recommendations to local contexts

Ethnic and Gender Disparities in Premature Adult Mortality in Belize 2008-2010.

BACKGROUND: Data on disparities in mortality within low and middle income countries are limited, with little published data from the Caribbean or Central America. Our aim was to investigate disparities in overall and cause specific premature adult mortality in the multi-ethnic middle income country of Belize. METHODS: Mortality data from Belize 2008-2010 classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10 and the 2010 census stratified by age and ethnicity were used to calculate age, sex, and ethnic specific mortality rates for those 15-59 years, and life table analysis was used to estimate the probability of death between the ages of 15 and 59 (45q15). RESULTS: The probability of death among those aged 15 to 59 years was 18.1% (women 13.5%, men 22.7%). Creole and Garifuna ethnic groups have three times the 45q15 probability of death compared to Mayan and Mestizo groups (Creole 31.2%, Garifuna 31.1%, Mayan 10.2%, Mestizo 12.0%). This pattern of ethnic disparity existed in both sexes but was greater in men. The probability of death from injuries was 14.8% among Creole men, more than twice the rate of other ethnicities and peaks among young Creole men. These deaths are dominated by homicides and unspecified deaths involving firearms. CONCLUSIONS: Marked disparities in mortality between ethnic groups exist in this Central American/Caribbean country, from rates that are typical of high-income countries to those of low-income countries. The pattern of these extreme differences likely suggests that they reflect underlying social determinants rooted in the country's colonial past

Prevalence and phenotype of diabetes and prediabetes using fasting glucose vs HbA1c in a Caribbean population.

BACKGROUND: Both fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c are recommended for the diagnosis of diabetes and prediabetes by the American Diabetes Association (ADA), and for diabetes by the World Health Organization. The ADA guidance is influential on clinical practice in many developing countries, including in the Caribbean and Latin America. We aimed to compare the prevalence and characteristics of individuals identified as having diabetes and prediabetes by FPG and HbA1c in a predominantly African ancestry Caribbean population. METHODS: A representative population-based sample of 1234 adults (≥25 years of age) resident in Barbados was recruited. Standard methods with appropriate quality control were used to collect data on height, weight, blood pressure, fasting lipids and history of diagnosed diabetes, and to measure fasting glucose and HbA1c. Those with previously diagnosed diabetes (n = 192) were excluded from the analyses. Diabetes was defined as: FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L or HbA1c ≥6.5%; prediabetes as: FPG ≥5.6 to <7mmol/L or HbA1c ≥5.7 to <6.5%. RESULTS: Complete data were available on 939 participants without previously diagnosed diabetes. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was higher, but not significantly so, by HbA1c (4.9%, 95% CI 3.5, 6.8) vs FPG (3.5%, 2.4, 5.1). Overall 79 individuals had diabetes by either measure, but only 21 on both. The prevalence of prediabetes was higher by HbA1c compared to FPG: 41.7% (37.9, 45.6) vs 15.0% (12.8, 17.5). Overall 558 individuals had prediabetes by either measure, but only 107 on both. HbA1c, but not FPG, was significantly higher in women than men; and FPG, but not HbA1c, was significantly associated with raised triglycerides and low HDL cholesterol. CONCLUSION: The agreement between FPG and HbA1c defined hyperglycaemia is poor. In addition, there are some differences in the phenotype of those identified, and HbA1c gives a much higher prevalence of prediabetes. The routine use of HbA1c for screening and diagnosis in this population would have major implications for clinical and public health policies and resources. Given the lack of robust evidence, particularly for prediabetes, on whether intervention in the individuals identified would improve outcomes, this approach to screening and diagnosis cannot be currently recommended for this population

Are there gender differences in acute management and secondary prevention of acute coronary syndromes in Barbados? A cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: In Barbados, high case fatality rates have been reported after myocardial infarction (MI) with higher rates in women than men. To explore this inequality, we examined documented pharmacological interventions for ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and unstable and chronic angina in women and men. DESIGN: Prospective cohort registry data for STEMI and NSTEMI and retrospective chart review for unstable and chronic angina. SETTING: Tertiary care (acute coronary syndromes) and primary care (chronic angina) centres in Barbados. PARTICIPANTS: For the years 2009-2016, a total of 1018 patients with STEMI or NSTEMI were identified via the prospective study. For unstable and chronic angina, 136 and 272 notes were reviewed respectively for the years 2010-2014. OUTCOME MEASURES: The proportions of patients prescribed recommended medication during the first 24 hours after an acute event, at discharge and for chronic care were calculated. Prescribed proportions were analysed by gender after adjustment for age. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2016, for the acute management of patients with NSTEMI and STEMI, only two (aspirin and clopidogrel) of six drugs had documented prescription rates of 80% or more. Patients with STEMI (n=552) had higher prescription rates than NSTEMI (n=466), with gender differences being more pronounced in the former. Among patients with STEMI, after adjustment for age, diabetes, hypertension and smoking, men were more likely to receive fibrinolytics acutely, OR 2.28 (95% CI 1.24 to 4.21). Compared with men, a higher proportion of women were discharged on all recommended treatments; this was only statistically significant for beta-blockers: age-adjusted OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.00). There were no statistically significant differences in documented prescription of drugs for chronic angina. CONCLUSION: Following acute MI in Barbados, the proportion of patients with documented recommended treatment is relatively low. Although women were less likely to receive appropriate acute care than men, by discharge gender differences were reversed

Regulatory measures to fight obesity in Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean and Pacific, 2015 - 2017.

This report examines the experiences of Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean- Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, and in the Pacific- Fiji, Nauru, and Tonga with specific governmental regulatory measures to reduce the risk of obesity and associated diet-related chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), as well as the obstacles and opportunities encountered. Guided by the diet-related indicators of the World Health Organization (WHO) Noncommunicable Diseases Progress Monitor 2017, the authors reviewed legislation, country reports, articles, and the databases of WHO and the World Trade Organization to identify relevant regulatory measures and to establish the extent of implementation in the selected countries. Obesity prevalence ranged from 25.9% in Dominica to 41.1% in Tonga. The principal diet-related measures implemented by the selected countries were fiscal measures, such as sugar-sweetened beverage taxes and import duties to encourage greater consumption of healthy foods. Governmental action was weakest in the area of restrictions on marketing of unhealthy foods. If they are to reduce their current high rates of obesity and associated NCDs, Caribbean and Pacific states need to intensify implementation of diet-related regulatory measures, particularly in the area of marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages to children. Key implementation challenges include financial and staffing constraints and the need for increased political will to counter industry opposition and to allocate adequate financial resources to keep advancing this agenda

The Development of Public Policies to Address Noncommunicable Diseases in the Caribbean Country of Barbados: The Importance of Problem Framing and Policy Entrepreneurs

Background: Government policy measures have a key role to play in the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). The Caribbean, a middle-income region, has the highest per capita burden of NCDs in the Americas. Our aim was to examine policy development and implementation between the years 2000 and 2013 on NCD prevention and control in Barbados, and to investigate factors promoting, and hindering, success. Methods: A qualitative case study design was used involving a structured policy document review and semistructured interviews with key informants, identified through stakeholder analysis and ‘cascading.’ Documents were abstracted into a standard form. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and underwent framework analysis, guided by the multiple streams framework (MSF). There were 25 key informants, from the Ministry of Health (MoH), other government Ministries, civil society organisations, and the private sector. Results: A significant policy window opened between 2005 and 2007 in which new posts to address NCDs were created in the MoH, and a government supported multi-sectoral national NCD commission was established. Factors contributing to this government commitment and funding included a high level of awareness, throughout society, of the NCD burden, including media coverage of local research findings; the availability of policy recommendations by international bodies that could be adopted locally, notably the framework convention on tobacco control (FCTC); and the activities of local highly respected policy entrepreneurs with access to senior politicians, who were able to bring together political concern for the problem with potential policy solutions. However, factors were also identified that hindered multi-sectoral policy development in several areas, including around nutrition, physical activity, and alcohol. These included a lack of consensus (valence) on the nature of the problem, often framed as being predominantly one of individuals needing to take responsibility for their health rather than requiring government-led environmental changes; lack of appropriate detailed policy guidance for local adaptation; conflicts with other political priorities, such as production and export of alcohol, and political reluctance to use legislative and fiscal measures. Conclusion: The study’s findings indicate mechanisms to promote and support NCD policy development in the Caribbean and similar setting

Dengue fever and severe dengue in Barbados, 2008–2016

Analysis of the temporal, seasonal and demographic distribution of dengue virus (DENV) infections in Barbados was conducted using national surveillance data from a total of 3994 confirmed dengue cases. D

Trends in beverage prices following the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Barbados.

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014-2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to <1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level.Financial support for the analyses presented in this paper was from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (TEPHINET). The full evaluation is receiving support from the Canadian International Development Research Centre (grant no. 107604-001), the Pan American Health Organization. MA is funded through a Gates Cambridge PhD Scholarship. JA is funded by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged

Evaluating policy responses to noncommunicable diseases in seven Caribbean countries: challenges to addressing unhealthy diets and physical inactivity.

OBJECTIVE: To identify, assess, and compare existing policies on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the Caribbean, gaps in policy responses, and the factors influencing successful policy development and implementation following the Port of Spain Declaration of 2007. Specifically, to examine policies that target the upstream determinants of two NCD risk factors-unhealthy diets and physical inactivity. METHODS: A total of 76 semi-structured interviews with 80 relevant stakeholders in government, the private sector, and civil society were complemented by policy document analysis. Interviews were analyzed pragmatically, framed by the CARICOM government commitments, the WHO NCD Action Plan, a Multiple Streams framework approach, and realist evaluation ideas. RESULTS: The most widely-reported policy successes involved health promotion activities (e.g., school meal programs) that leveraged multisectoral collaboration among government ministries, such as Health, Education, and Agriculture. Large policy gaps still exist around creating legislative, physical, and social environments to support healthy eating and physical activity at the population level. Multisectoral NCD commissions successfully reached across sectors, but had limited influence on policy development. Different policy levels emerged with national-level policies considered a lengthy process, while "On-the-ground" programming was considered faster to implement than national policies. External barriers included a reliance on food imports enabled by international trade agreements limited availability, quality, and affordability of healthy foods. International pushback limited legislation to reduce food imports and the absence of an international/regional framework, similar to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, further impedes efforts. CONCLUSIONS: Regional collaboration and political support across sectors are essential to accelerating the pace of action to support healthy eating and active living environments. Policy "blueprints" could accelerate the process of development. Regional "NCD champions" could spearhead such responses and approaches