Determinants of change in household-level consumption and poverty in Uganda, 1992/93-1999/00:

"Recent estimates showing increase in the incidence of poverty in Uganda has kindled interest in understanding the factors that cause changes in poverty, as the reversal of the positive trend in the 1990s threatens the government's poverty eradication plan of reducing poverty to a level below 28% by 2014. Using a household and community panel dataset, this paper analyzes the factors contributing to change in household-level consumption and poverty... Results from econometric analyses suggest that adopting policies and strategies that reduce the pressure on agricultural land, creates employment opportunities, and improves access to farmland will be key interventions for raising real per capita consumption and reducing poverty across the country. However, the results also show that the impact of several factors are not the same across the country, suggesting that different interventions for raising consumption will also be needed for different parts of the country." from Authors' AbstractPoverty, household consumption,

Benefit-cost analysis of Uganda's clonal coffee replanting program: An ex-ante analysis

"The Ugandan coffee industry is facing some serious challenges, including low international prices in the international coffee market, aging coffee trees and declining productivity, and, more recently, the appearance of coffee-wilt disease, which have all contributed to the decline in both the quantity and value of coffee exports. The government of Uganda, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), in 1993/94 started a coffee-replanting program to both replace coffee trees that were old or affected by coffee-wilt and expand coffee production into other suitable areas in northern and eastern Uganda. This program seems to be helping to both combat the industry's problems and reverse the declining trends. However, the UCDA announced in 2004 that it was withdrawing from the replanting program in the 2004/05 season (it had supported nursery operators and purchased and distributed free seedlings to farmers), so the program's achievements may not last. This paper estimates the economic returns (benefit–cost ratio) of the coffee-replanting program, particularly replanting with clonal varieties, and analyzes the welfare implications of the decision to withdraw. We find that the internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit–cost ratio are very high, about 50 percent and 3.7 respectively, suggesting that the replanting program in Uganda is very beneficial to the livelihoods of coffee farmers, the coffee sub-sector, and the economy as a whole. The largest benefits occur in the central region, where the bulk of coffee is grown, followed by the eastern and western regions. The largest return on investment occurs in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Sensitivity analyses show that the results (that is, the net benefits) are robust with respect to the assumptions made, including demand and supply elasticities and level of domestic consumption. Although the results are sensitive to farm production costs and coffee yields, the program still improves welfare. Taken all together, the results suggest that if the government withdraws from the replanting program without putting place adequate alternative measures to ensure the program's sustainability, welfare will be severely reduced in coffee-growing areas." from Authors' AbstractClonal coffee, Benefit-cost analysis, IRR, DREAM, Agricultural research,

Estimating household income to monitor and evaluate public investment programs in Sub-Saharan Africa:

"Monitoring rural household income is important for governments, donors, nongovernmental organizations, researchers, and others involved with development strategies, because increasing rural household income is a primary objective for achieving many development goals, including reducing poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition insecurity. However, accurate assessment of rural household income is time consuming and costly. Using an expenditure-based income measure, data on actual household expenditures per capita obtained from various national surveys for 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, this study used proxy indicators to estimate regression models and then predict and analyze changes in household income per capita between 1985 and 2006. Over the 20-year period, the study predicted annual average real household monthly income per capita at $78 in 1993 international dollars. South Africa was ahead of the group of countries at$225, followed by Côte d'Ivoire and Lesotho at $117 and$91, respectively. Predictions for Nigeria and Zambia were the worst at $28 and$39, respectively. Looking at changes in income over time, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Uganda, Senegal, Mauritania, and Ghana (in declining order) experienced consistent positive growth. In contrast, Zambia, Kenya, and Lesotho showed declining trends, averaging –2.7 percent, –2.0 percent, and –1.3 percent per year, respectively, over the 20-year period. The latter results were not surprising given the low and sometimes negative growth rates in real GDP per capita and real agricultural value added per worker over the same period for those countries. The predicted trends were also consistent with observed trends in poverty and hunger, suggesting that the methodology is a useful and least-cost approach for monitoring household incomes to support evaluation of public investment programs." from Author's AbstractHousehold income, Monitoring and evaluation, Proxy indicators, Public investments,

Do external grants to district governments discourage own-revenue generation?: A look at local public finance dynamics in Ghana

Decentralization, Inter-governmental transfers, Local government, Internally generated revenues, Development strategies,

Reaching middle-income status in Ghana by 2015: Public expenditures and agricultural growth

"Using district-level data on public expenditures from 2000 to 2006, and household-level production data from the 2005/06 Ghana Living Standards Survey, this paper estimates the returns to different types of public investments across four agro-ecological zones of Ghana. We then assess the amount of public agricultural expenditures required to raise agricultural growth to 6.9 percent per year until 2015, as this is the target growth needed for Ghana to achieve its goal of middle-income status. The results reveal that provision of various public goods and services has substantial impact on agricultural productivity. A one percent increase in public spending on agriculture is associated with a 0.15 percent increase in agricultural labor productivity, with a benefit-cost ratio of 16.8. Spending on feeder roads ranks second (with a benefit-cost ratio of 8.8), followed by health (1.3). Formal education was negatively associated with agricultural productivity. The estimated marginal effects and returns differ across the four agro-ecological zones. For Ghana to achieve middle income status by 2015, agricultural public spending should grow at an estimated rate of 19.6 percent per year, or by a total amount of GH�264 million (or US$478 million) per year in 2000 prices over the 2005–2015 period. These requirements are lower if the government is able to achieve a higher efficiency in its public spending than the estimated elasticity of 0.15; this could potentially be achieved by reforming public institutions to improve the provision of agriculture-related public goods and services." from authors' abstractAgricultural development, Public spending, Investments,

Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Malawi:

"Malawi has experienced modest economic growth over the last decade and a half. However, agricultural growth has been particularly erratic, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Malawian government, within the framework of the Agricultural Development Plan (ADP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive agricultural development strategy consistent with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achieving six percent agricultural growth and allocating at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector. Economic modeling results indicate that it is possible for Malawi to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth. However, achievement of these goals will require additional growth in most crops and agricultural sub-sectors, meaning that Malawi cannot rely solely on growth in maize or tobacco to reach this growth target. Broader-based agricultural growth, including growth in pulses and horticultural crops, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Malawi must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 20 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 24 percent of its total expenditure by 2015 if the CAADP goals are to be met. Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy, with agricultural growth typically resulting in substantial overall growth in the economy and rising incomes in rural and urban areas, simply achieving the CAADP target of six percent will not be sufficient to halve poverty by 2015, i.e. achieving the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). To achieve this more ambitious target, agriculture and non-agriculture would need an average annual growth rate above seven percent. This growth requirement is substantial, as is the associated resource requirements, indicating that the MDG1 target may be beyond reach. However, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as this goal has more reasonable growth and expenditure requirements, and will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 2015 and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstractAgriculture, GDP, Poverty, Public investment, MDGs, Development strategies,

Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Zambia:

"Zambia has experienced strong economic performance since 1999. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy, and although the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Zambian government, within the framework of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Zambia's FNDP, in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include the achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model results indicate that it is possible for Zambia to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in all crops and sub-sectors. Zambia cannot rely on only maize or higher-value export crops to achieve this growth target; broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In order to meet the CAADP target, the Government of Zambia must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 17–27 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and spend about 8–18 percent of its total expenditure on the sector by 2015. Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy and its growth will result in substantial overall growth in the economy and the household incomes of rural and urban populations, achieving the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth will not be sufficient to meet the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving poverty by 2015. To achieve this more ambitious target, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors would need an average annual growth rate of around ten percent per year. These growth requirements are substantial, as are the associated resource requirements. Thus, while the MDG1 target appears to be beyond reach for Zambia, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as its more reasonable growth and expenditure scenarios will still substantially reduce the number of poor people living below the poverty line by 2015, and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstractAgriculture, Poverty, Public investment, GDP, Millennium Development Goals,

Land Markets and Agricultural Land Use Efficiency and Sustainability: Evidence from East Africa

Land markets, including land sales and short-term land rentals, have an important role to play for efficient and sustainable land management and agricultural development, especially where markets for other factors of production are imperfect or missing. This study utilises data from the highlands of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda to examine the impact of land markets on various types of land investment and management practices, crop yield, and land quality. The results highlight the relative long-term versus short-term return to different types of investment and practices, where those with longer-term benefits such as trees, manuring, and composting are preferred on more tenure-secure plots, while those with immediate or season-to-season benefits such as drainage structures or chemical fertilizers are preferred on rented plots. The impact on agricultural productivity is mixed and context specific. Regarding land quality outcomes, there is reason to believe that plots traded on short-term markets in Kenya and Uganda tend to be of inferior quality, supporting the hypothesis of movement of land from households to those with higher capital/land ratios.land markets, land investment and management, land use efficiency, Land Economics/Use,

The CADDP 10 per cent target - Still pursued by African leaders?

The 2003 Maputo Declaration aimed at boosting African agriculture requires governments to make difficult decisions on budget priorities. Furthermore, tracking the progress of the initiative presents problems. Our author looks at these and other challenges the Maputo Declaration is facing. And against the background of a continuing decline in government expenditure on agriculture on the continent, he argues that new evidence on expenditure outcomes is required to get governments to reverse the trend

Policy options for improving market participation and sales of smallholder livestock producers: A case study of Ethiopia

Market access plays an essential role in assuring better income and welfare levels for smallholder livestock producers, and thus contributes to poverty alleviation. This is even more so in the Ethiopian context where livestock play an essential role in the economy. Making use of the Heckman estimation procedure, this paper identifies policy and technology options to increase participation and sales of smallholder producers in livestock markets in Ethiopia, based on data from 934 household surveys conducted between 1999 and 2001 in the highlands of Tigray and Amhara regions in northern Ethiopia. The analysis demonstrates that physical capital (ownership of different species of livestock and landholding) and financial capital (crop income and non-farm income) are the main factors influencing market participation and sales. Education was also found to positively affect value of sales of dairy products. Distance to markets and towns were not found to be significant. We conclude that in the case of Ethiopia, constraints to production of livestock and livestock products (e.g. capital to purchase animals, feed, and processing equipment) are the main factors limiting participation and sales in livestock markets