A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul\u27s Quaternary vertebrates

The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery

What caused extinction of the pleistocene megafauna of sahul?

2016 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. During the Pleistocene, Australia and New Guinea supported a rich assemblage of large vertebrates. Why these animals disappeared has been debated for more than a century and remains controversial. Previous synthetic reviews of this problem have typically focused heavily on particular types of evidence, such as the dating of extinction and human arrival, and have frequently ignored uncertainties and biases that can lead to misinterpretation of this evidence. Here, we review diverse evidence bearing on this issue and conclude that, although many knowledge gaps remain, multiple independent lines of evidence point to direct human impact as the most likely cause of extinction

FosSahul 2.0, an updated database for the Late Quaternary fossil records of Sahul

The 2016 version of the FosSahul database compiled non-human vertebrate megafauna fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013 in a standardized format. Its purpose was to create a publicly available, centralized, and comprehensive database for palaeoecological investigations of the continent. Such databases require regular updates and improvements to reflect recent scientific findings. Here we present an updated FosSahul (2.0) containing 11,871 dated non-human vertebrate fossil records from the Late Quaternary published up to 2018. Furthermore, we have extended the information captured in the database to include methodological details and have developed an algorithm to automate the quality-rating process. The algorithm makes the quality-rating more transparent and easier to reproduce, facilitating future database extensions and dissemination. FosSahul has already enabled several palaeoecological analyses, and its updated version will continue to provide a centralized organisation of Sahul\u27s fossil records. As an example of an application of the database, we present the temporal pattern in megafauna genus richness inferred from available data in relation to palaeoclimate indices over the past 180,000 years

Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM\u27s net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul

Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM\u27s net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul

Criteria for assessing the quality of Middle Pleistocene to Holocene vertebrate fossil ages

Confidence in fossil ages is a recognized constraint for understanding changes in archaeological and palaeontological records. Poor estimates of age can lead to erroneous inferences-such as timing of species arrival, range expansions and extinctions-preventing robust hypothesis testing of the causes and consequences of past events. Therefore, age reliability must be demonstrated before patterns and mechanisms are inferred. Here we present a generalized quality-rating scheme based on a two-stage set of objective criteria: first, our method assesses the reliability of an age regarding the dating procedure, and second, if the age is based on association, it assesses the confidence in its association with the target vertebrate fossil. We developed this quality rating specifically for Australian applications, but it could be applied to other regions and to longer timescales with some modification. Our method ranks ages in four categories of reliability (A* and A are reliable; B and C are unreliable). In our case study of the late Pleistocene megafauna of Sahul, accounting for reliability (i.e., accepting only reliable ages) reduced the number of useful records within chronologies by 70%; for most species, this greatly affects any inferences regarding the timing and possible drivers of extinction. Our method provides a simple, replicable and general tool for assessing the age quality of dated fossils, as well as provides a guide for selecting useful protocols and samples for dating