On the rise: Climate change in New Zealand will cause sperm and blue whales to seek higher latitudes

Climate impacts affect marine ecosystems worldwide with island nations such as New Zealand being extremely vulnerable because of their socio-economic and cultural dependence on the marine and costal environment. Cetaceans are ideal indicator species of ecosystem change and ocean health given their extended life span and cosmopolitan distribution, but limited data availability prevents anticipating change in distribution under future climate changes. We projected the range shifts of a key odontocete and mysticete species (Physeter macrocephalus and Balaenoptera musculus) in 2100 relative to present day in New Zealand waters, using an ensemble modelling approach, under three climate change scenarios of different severity. The results show a latitudinal shift in suitable habitat for both whale species, increasing in magnitude with severity of sea surface temperature warming. The most severe climate change scenario tested generated 56% and 42% loss and decrease of currently suitable habitat for sperm and blue whales, respectively, mostly in New Zealand’s northern waters. These predicted changes will have a strong impact on the ecosystem functioning and services in New Zealand’s northern waters but also in coastal areas (critical for the species’ foraging and survival). Not only do these simulated range shifts help to identify future potential climate refugia to mitigate a global warming, they also generate a range of socioeconomic consequences for island nations relying on wildlife tourism, industry, and environmental protection

The First Australians grew to a population of millions, much more than previous estimates

We know it is more than 60,000 years since the first people entered the continent of Sahul — the giant landmass that connected New Guinea, Australia and Tasmania when sea levels were lower than today. But where the earliest people moved across the landscape, how fast they moved, and how many were involved, have been shrouded in mystery. Our latest research, published today shows the establishment of populations in every part of this giant continent could have occurred in as little as 5,000 years. And the entire population of Sahul could have been as high as 6.4 million people. This translates to more than 3 million people in the area that is now modern-day Australia, far more than any previous estimate

We mapped the ‘super-highways’ the First Australians used to cross the ancient land

There are many hypotheses about where the Indigenous ancestors first settled in Australia tens of thousands of years ago, but evidence is scarce. Few archaeological sites date to these early times. Sea levels were much lower and Australia was connected to New Guinea and Tasmania in a land known as Sahul that was 30% bigger than Australia is today. Our latest research advances our knowledge about the most likely routes those early Australians travelled as they peopled this giant continent

Directionally supervised cellular automaton for the initial peopling of Sahul

Reconstructing the patterns of Homo sapiens expansion out of Africa and across the globe has been advanced using demographic and travel-cost models. However, modelled routes are ipso facto influenced by migration rates, and vice versa. We combined movement ‘superhighways’ with a demographic cellular automaton to predict one of the world’s earliest peopling events — Sahul between 75,000–50,000 years ago. Novel outcomes from the superhighways weighted model include (i) an approximate doubling of the predicted time to continental saturation (~ 10,000 years) compared to that based on the directionally unsupervised model (~5,000 years), suggesting that rates of migration need to account for topographical constraints in addition to rate of saturation; (ii) a previously undetected movement corridor south through the centre of Sahul early in the expansion wave based on the scenarios assuming two dominant entry points into Sahul; and (iii) a better fit to the spatially de-biased, Signor-Lipps corrected layer of initial arrival inferred from dated archaeological material. Our combined model infrastructure provides a data-driven means to examine how people initially moved through, settled, and abandoned different regions of the globe

Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident

The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling combined with population projections, we show that the probability of randomly reaching Sahul by any route is <5% until ≥40 adults are ‘washed off’ an island at least once every 20 years. We then demonstrate that choosing a time of departure and making minimal headway (0.5 knots) toward a destination greatly increases the likelihood of arrival. While drift modelling demonstrates the existence of ‘bottleneck’ crossings on all routes, arrival via New Guinea is more likely than via northwestern Australia. We conclude that anatomically modern humans had the capacity to plan and make open-sea voyages lasting several days by at least 50,000 years ago

Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of Sahul

Archaeological data and demographic modelling suggest that the peopling of Sahul required substantial populations, occurred rapidly within a few thousand years and encompassed environments ranging from hyper-arid deserts to temperate uplands and tropical rainforests. How this migration occurred and how humans responded to the physical environments they encountered have, however, remained largely speculative. By constructing a high-resolution digital elevation model for Sahul and coupling it with fine-scale viewshed analysis of landscape prominence, least-cost pedestrian travel modelling and high-performance computing, we create over 125 billion potential migratory pathways, whereby the most parsimonious routes traversed emerge. Our analysis revealed several major pathways—superhighways—transecting the continent, that we evaluated using archaeological data. These results suggest that the earliest Australian ancestors adopted a set of fundamental rules shaped by physiological capacity, attraction to visually prominent landscape features and freshwater distribution to maximize survival, even without previous experience of the landscapes they encountered

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul's Quaternary vertebrates.

The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul’s Quaternary vertebrates

Published: 19 July 2016The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery.Marta Rodríguez-Rey, y, Salvador Herrando-Pérez, Barry W. Brook, Frédérik Saltré, John Alroy, Nicholas Beeton, Michael I. Bird, Alan Cooper, Richard Gillespie, Zenobia Jacobs, Christopher N. Johnson, Gifford H. Miller, Gavin J. Prideaux, Richard G. Roberts, Chris S.M. Turney and Corey J.A. Bradsha

Climate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns

The mechanisms leading to megafauna (>44 kg) extinctions in Late Pleistocene (126,000-12,000 years ago) Australia are highly contested because standard chronological analyses rely on scarce data of varying quality and ignore spatial complexity. Relevant archaeological and palaeontological records are most often also biased by differential preservation resulting in under-representated older events. Chronological analyses have attributed megafaunal extinctions to climate change, humans, or a combination of the two, but rarely consider spatial variation in extinction patterns, initial human appearance trajectories, and palaeoclimate change together. Here we develop a statistical approach to infer spatio-temporal trajectories of megafauna extirpations (local extinctions) and initial human appearance in south-eastern Australia. We identify a combined climate-human effect on regional extirpation patterns suggesting that small, mobile Aboriginal populations potentially needed access to drinkable water to survive arid ecosystems, but were simultaneously constrained by climate-dependent net landscape primary productivity. Thus, the co-drivers of megafauna extirpations were themselves constrained by the spatial distribution of climate-dependent water sources.Frédérik Saltré, Joël Chadoeuf, Katharina J. Peters, Matthew C. McDowell, Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Sean Ulm and Corey J. A. Bradsha

Damage costs from invasive species exceed management expenditure in nations experiencing lower economic activity

Financial disclosure The InvaCost project was funded by the French National Research Agency (ANR-14-CE02-0021), the BNP-Paribas Foundation Climate Initiative, the AXA Research Fund Chair of Invasion Biology of University Paris Saclay and by the BiodivERsA and Belmont-Forum call 2018 on biodiversity scenarios (AlienScenarios; BMBF/PT DLR 01LC1807C). M.K. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research programme under a Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement 899546. C.J.A.B. acknowledges the Australian Research Council (CE170100015) for support. A.B. acknowledges Azim Premji University's grants programme (UNIV-RC00326) for support.Peer reviewe