Investing in Time-to-Build Projects With Uncertain Revenues and Costs: A Real Options Approach

Lagging public-sector investment in infrastructure and the deregulation of many industries mean that the private sector has to make decisions under multiple sources of uncertainty. We analyze such investment decisions by accounting for both multiple sources of uncertainty and the time-to-build aspect. The latter feature arises in the energy and transportation sectors, because investors can decide the rate at which the project is completed. Furthermore, two explicit sources of uncertainty represent the discounted cash inflows and outflows of the completed project. We use a finite-difference scheme to solve numerically the option value and the optimal investment threshold. Somewhat counterintuitively, with a relatively long time to build, a reduction in the growth rate of the discounted operating cost may actually lower the investment threshold. This is contrary to the outcome when the stepwise aspect is ignored in a model with uncertain price and cost. Hence, research and development efforts to enhance emerging technologies may be more relevant for infrastructure projects with long lead times

Preliminary Survey and Diet Analysis of Anurans in The Riparian Zone of Calayagon Watershed, Agusan Del Norte, Philippines

Watersheds are critical habitats for a diverse array of organisms. Among all the fauna, anurans are excellent biological indicators of environmental health. The community structure is often associated with a relationship between species diversity and diet. An anuran survey was conducted along riparian zones of three selected barangays of Calayagon Watershed (Guinabsan, Rizal, and Malpoc), Philippines. Extensive opportunistic methods for a total of 480 man-hours were spent traversing the area. A total of 195 individuals, consisting of seven species from four families, were recorded. Seventy-two percent of the individual species were regarded as Least concern, and 14 % were Near-threatened. Of the species recorded, 57 % are Philippine endemic, and 29 % are Invasive alien species. Fejervarya vittigera (44.66 %) gained the highest number of individuals across sampling stations. Overall diversity index is high H’= 1.43. The most abundant species in each sampling site were subjected to diet analysis (R. marina, F. vittigera, and F. moodiei). The most dominant prey item were plant matters followed by insect orders. In terms of the number of prey items, the order Hymenoptera was the most abundant. The study was the first to record the diet of the Philippine endemic F. vittigera, and F. moodiei. Noted anthropogenic threats include agricultural expansion and urbanization. Strict implementation of ordinances and policies towards the conservation and protection of a healthy bio-system for anurans and all organisms in the area is highly recommended

Exponential instability in the fractional Calder\'on problem

In this note we prove the exponential instability of the fractional Calder\'on problem and thus prove the optimality of the logarithmic stability estimate from \cite{RS17}. In order to infer this result, we follow the strategy introduced by Mandache in \cite{M01} for the standard Calder\'on problem. Here we exploit a close relation between the fractional Calder\'on problem and the classical Poisson operator. Moreover, using the construction of a suitable orthonormal basis, we also prove (almost) optimality of the Runge approximation result for the fractional Laplacian, which was derived in \cite{RS17}. Finally, in one dimension, we show a close relation between the fractional Calder\'on problem and the truncated Hilbert transform.Comment: 17 page

Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies

In order to address major changes in the operational environment, companies can (i) define scenarios that characterize different alternatives for this environment, (ii) assign probabilities to these scenarios, (iii) evaluate the performance of strategic actions across the scenarios, and (iv) choose those actions that are expected to perform best. In this paper, we develop a portfolio model to support the selection of such strategic actions when the information about scenario probabilities is possibly incomplete and may depend on the selected actions. This model helps build a strategy that is robust in that it performs relatively well in view of all available probability information, and proactive in that it can help steer the future as reflected by the scenarios toward the desired direction. We also report a case study in which the model helped a group of Nordic, globally operating steel and engineering companies build a platform ecosystem strategy that accounts for uncertainties related to markets, politics, and technological development

Depressive symptoms are associated with analgesic use in people with Alzheimer's disease: Kuopio ALSOVA study.

Neuropsychiatric symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) such as depression may be associated with pain, which according to the literature may be inadequately recognized and managed in this population. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with analgesic use in persons with AD; in particular, how AD severity, functional status, neuropsychiatric symptoms of AD, co-morbidities and somatic symptoms are associated with analgesic use. 236 community-dwelling persons with very mild or mild AD at baseline, and their caregivers, were interviewed over five years as part of the prospective ALSOVA study. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) were used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the factors associated with analgesic use over a five year follow-up. The proportion of persons with AD using any analgesic was low (13.6%) at baseline and remained relatively constant during the follow-up (15.3% at Year 5). Over time, the most prevalent analgesic changed from non-steroidal anti-inflammatories (8.1% of persons with AD at Year 1) to acetaminophen (11.1% at Year 5). Depressive symptoms (measured by the Beck Depression Inventory, BDI) were independently associated with analgesic use, after effects of age, gender, education, AD severity, comorbidities and somatic symptoms were taken into account. For every one unit increase in BDI, the odds of analgesic use increased by 4% (OR = 1.04, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.02-1.07). Caregiver depressive symptoms were not statistically significantly associated with analgesic use of the person with AD. Depressive symptoms were significantly associated with analgesic use during the five year follow-up period. Possible explanations warranting investigation are that persons with AD may express depressive symptoms as painful somatic complaints, or untreated pain may cause depressive symptoms. Greater awareness of the association between depressive symptoms and analgesic use may lead to safer and more effective prescribing for these conditions

Spatial Structure and Coherent Motion in Dense Planetary Rings Induced by Self-Gravitational Instability

We investigate the formation of spatial structure in dense, self-gravitating particle systems such as Saturn's B-ring through local $N$-body simulations to clarify the intrinsic physics based on individual particle motion. In such a system, Salo (1995) showed that the formation of spatial structure such as wake-like structure and particle grouping (clump) arises spontaneously due to gravitational instability and the radial velocity dispersion increases as the formation of the wake structure. However, intrinsic physics of the phenomena has not been clarified. We performed local $N$-body simulations including mutual gravitational forces between ring particles as well as direct (inelastic) collisions with identical (up to $N\sim40000$) particles. In the wake structure particles no longer move randomly but coherently. We found that particle motion was similar to Keplerian motion even in the wake structure and that the coherent motion was produced since the particles in a clump had similar eccentricity and longitude of perihelion. This coherent motion causes the increase and oscillation in the radial velocity dispersion. The mean velocity dispersion is rather larger in a more dissipative case with a smaller restitution coefficient and/or a larger surface density since the coherence is stronger in the more dissipative case. Our simulations showed that the wavelength of the wake structure was approximately given by the longest wavelength \hs{\lambda}{cr} = 4\pi^2 G\Sigma/\kappa^2 in the linear theory of axisymmetric gravitational instability in a thin disk, where $G$, $\Sigma$, and $\kappa$ are the gravitational constant, surface density, and a epicyclic frequency.Comment: Accepted by Earth, Planets, and Space. 39 pages, 20 figures. PostScript files also available from http://www.geo.titech.ac.jp/nakazawalab/hdaisaka/works

KINETIC FACTORS DIFFERENTIATING MID-TO-LATE SPRINT ACCELERATION PERFORMANCE IN SPRINTERS AND SOCCER PLAYERS

High-speed running in soccer is an important skill, however, the underlying kinetic factors are not fully understood. Ground reaction forces from steps 8 to 24 of maximal-effort sprints were captured for 24 soccer players and 28 track and field athletes using 54 force plates. Correlations between discrete force variables and horizontal acceleration were assessed, and statistical parametric mapping revealed performance associations across entire waveforms. Track and field athletes produced higher forces (mean anteroposterior: 1.56 N·kg-1) across shorter contacts (0.101 s) than soccer players (1.27 N·kg-1, 0.110 s). Interestingly, the technical ability to apply force and the performance-differentiating parts of stance were similar across groups. Thus, practitioners should perhaps target physical (force production) rather than technical factors to improve soccer players’ sprint abilities