59 research outputs found

    Advances in count time series monitoring for public health surveillance

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    Advances in count time series monitoring for public health surveillance

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    Use of spatiotemporal characteristics of ambient PM2.5 in rural South India to infer local versus regional contributions

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    This study uses spatiotemporal patterns in ambient concentrations to infer the contribution of regional versus local sources. We collected 12 months of monitoring data for outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in rural southern India. Rural India includes more than one-tenth of the global population and annually accounts for around half a million air pollution deaths, yet little is known about the relative contribution of local sources to outdoor air pollution. We measured 1-min averaged outdoor PM2.5 concentrations during June 2015-May 2016 in three villages, which varied in population size, socioeconomic status, and type and usage of domestic fuel. The daily geometric-mean PM2.5 concentration was approximately 30mugm(-3) (geometric standard deviation: approximately 1.5). Concentrations exceeded the Indian National Ambient Air Quality standards (60mugm(-3)) during 2-5% of observation days. Average concentrations were approximately 25mugm(-3) higher during winter than during monsoon and approximately 8mugm(-3) higher during morning hours than the diurnal average. A moving average subtraction method based on 1-min average PM2.5 concentrations indicated that local contributions (e.g., nearby biomass combustion, brick kilns) were greater in the most populated village, and that overall the majority of ambient PM2.5 in our study was regional, implying that local air pollution control strategies alone may have limited influence on local ambient concentrations. We compared the relatively new moving average subtraction method against a more established approach. Both methods broadly agree on the relative contribution of local sources across the three sites. The moving average subtraction method has broad applicability across locations

    Predictors of Daily Mobility of Adults in Peri-Urban South India

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    Daily mobility, an important aspect of environmental exposures and health behavior, has mainly been investigated in high-income countries. We aimed to identify the main dimensions of mobility and investigate their individual, contextual, and external predictors among men and women living in a peri-urban area of South India. We used 192 global positioning system (GPS)-recorded mobility tracks from 47 participants (24 women, 23 men) from the Cardiovascular Health effects of Air pollution in Telangana, India (CHAI) project (mean: 4.1 days/person). The mean age was 44 (standard deviation: 14) years. Half of the population was illiterate and 55% was in unskilled manual employment, mostly agriculture-related. Sex was the largest determinant of mobility. During daytime, time spent at home averaged 13.4 (3.7) h for women and 9.4 (4.2) h for men. Women's activity spaces were smaller and more circular than men's. A principal component analysis identified three main mobility dimensions related to the size of the activity space, the mobility in/around the residence, and mobility inside the village, explaining 86% (women) and 61% (men) of the total variability in mobility. Age, socioeconomic status, and urbanicity were associated with all three dimensions. Our results have multiple potential applications for improved assessment of environmental exposures and their effects on health

    rtimicropem: an R package supporting the analysis of RTI MicroPEM output files

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    rtmicropem (Salmon and Zhou 2017) is an R package (R Core Team 2017) that aims at supporting the analysis of PM2.5 measures made with RTI MicroPEM. RTI MicroPEM are personal monitoring devices (PM2.5 and PM10) developped by RTI international. They output csv files containing both settings and measurements corresponding to measurement sessions. These files are not tabular data, that the package transforms into tabular data

    Development of land-use regression models for fine particles and black carbon in peri-urban South India

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    Land-use regression (LUR) has been used to model local spatial variability of particulate matter in cities of high-income countries. Performance of LUR models is unknown in less urbanized areas of low-/middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing complex sources of ambient air pollution and which typically have limited land use data. To address these concerns, we developed LUR models using satellite imagery (e.g., vegetation, urbanicity) and manually-collected data from a comprehensive built-environment survey (e.g., roads, industries, non-residential places) for a peri-urban area outside Hyderabad, India. As part of the CHAI (Cardiovascular Health effects of Air pollution in Telangana, India) project, concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon were measured over two seasons at 23 sites. Annual mean (sd) was 34.1 (3.2) mug/m(3) for PM2.5 and 2.7 (0.5) mug/m(3) for black carbon. The LUR model for annual black carbon explained 78% of total variance and included both local-scale (energy supply places) and regional-scale (roads) predictors. Explained variance was 58% for annual PM2.5 and the included predictors were only regional (urbanicity, vegetation). During leave-one-out cross-validation and cross-holdout validation, only the black carbon model showed consistent performance. The LUR model for black carbon explained a substantial proportion of the spatial variability that could not be captured by simpler interpolation technique (ordinary kriging). This is the first study to develop a LUR model for ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and black carbon in a non-urban area of LMICs, supporting the applicability of the LUR approach in such settings. Our results provide insights on the added value of manually-collected built-environment data to improve the performance of LUR models in settings with limited data availability. For both pollutants, LUR models predicted substantial within-village variability, an important feature for future epidemiological studies

    igraph enables fast and robust network analysis across programming languages

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    Networks or graphs are widely used across the sciences to represent relationships of many kinds. igraph (https://igraph.org) is a general-purpose software library for graph construction, analysis, and visualisation, combining fast and robust performance with a low entry barrier. igraph pairs a fast core written in C with beginner-friendly interfaces in Python, R, and Mathematica. Over the last two decades, igraph has expanded substantially. It now scales to billions of edges, supports Mathematica and interactive plotting, integrates with Jupyter notebooks and other network libraries, includes new graph layouts and community detection algorithms, and has streamlined the documentation with examples and Spanish translations. Modern testing features such as continuous integration, address sanitizers, stricter typing, and memory-managed vectors have also increased robustness. Hundreds of bug reports have been fixed and a community forum has been opened to connect users and developers. Specific effort has been made to broaden use and community participation by women, non-binary people, and other demographic groups typically underrepresented in open source software.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

    Wearable camera-derived microenvironments in relation to personal exposure to PM2.5

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    Data regarding which microenvironments drive exposure to air pollution in low and middle income countries are scarce. Our objective was to identify sources of time-resolved personal PM2.5 exposure in peri-urban India using wearable camera-derived microenvironmental information. We conducted a panel study with up to 6 repeated non-consecutive 24h measurements on 45 participants (186 participant-days). Camera images were manually annotated to derive visual concepts indicative of microenvironments and activities. Men had slightly higher daily mean PM2.5 exposure (43mug/m(3)) compared to women (39mug/m(3)). Cameras helped identify that men also had higher exposures when near a biomass cooking unit (mean (sd) mug/m(3): 119 (383) for men vs 83 (196) for women) and presence in the kitchen (133 (311) for men vs 48 (94) for women). Visual concepts associated in regression analysis with higher 5-minute PM2.5 for both sexes included: smoking (+93% (95% confidence interval: 63%, 129%) in men, +29% (95% CI: 2%, 63%) in women), biomass cooking unit (+57% (95% CI: 28%, 93%) in men, +69% (95% CI: 48%, 93%) in women), visible flame or smoke (+90% (95% CI: 48%, 144%) in men, +39% (95% CI: 6%, 83%) in women), and presence in the kitchen (+49% (95% CI: 27%, 75%) in men, +14% (95% CI: 7%, 20%) in women). Our results indicate wearable cameras can provide objective, high time-resolution microenvironmental data useful for identifying peak exposures and providing insights not evident using standard self-reported time-activity

    Monitoring Count Time Series in R: Aberration Detection in Public Health Surveillance

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    Public health surveillance aims at lessening disease burden by, e.g., timely recognizing emerging outbreaks in case of infectious diseases. Seen from a statistical perspective, this implies the use of appropriate methods for monitoring time series of aggregated case reports. This paper presents the tools for such automatic aberration detection offered by the R package surveillance. We introduce the functionalities for the visualization, modeling and monitoring of surveillance time series. With respect to modeling we focus on univariate time series modeling based on generalized linear models (GLMs), multivariate GLMs, generalized additive models and generalized additive models for location, shape and scale. Applications of such modeling include illustrating implementational improvements and extensions of the well-known Farrington algorithm, e.g., by spline-modeling or by treating it in a Bayesian context. Furthermore, we look at categorical time series and address overdispersion using beta-binomial or Dirichlet-multinomial modeling. With respect to monitoring we consider detectors based on either a Shewhart-like single timepoint comparison between the observed count and the predictive distribution or by likelihoodratio based cumulative sum methods. Finally, we illustrate how surveillance can support aberration detection in practice by integrating it into the monitoring workflow of a public health institution. Altogether, the present article shows how well surveillance can support automatic aberration detection in a public health surveillance context
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