Lifestyle index for mortality prediction using multiple ageing cohorts in the USA, UK and Europe

Current mortality prediction indexes are mainly based on functional morbidity and comorbidity, with limited information for risk prevention. This study aimed to develop and validate a modifiable lifestyle-based mortality predication index for older adults. Data from 51,688 participants (56% women) aged ≥50 years in 2002 Health and Retirement Study, 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and 2004 Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used to estimate coefficients of the index with cohort-stratified Cox regression. Models were validated across studies and compared to the Lee index (having comorbid and morbidity predictors). Over an average of 11-year follow-up, 10,240 participants died. The lifestyle index includes smoking, drinking, exercising, sleep quality, BMI, sex and age; showing adequate model performance in internal validation (C-statistic 0.79; D-statistic 1.94; calibration slope 1.13) and in all combinations of internal-external cross-validation. It outperformed Lee index (e.g. differences in C-statistic = 0.01, D-statistic = 0.17, P < 0.001) consistently across health status. The lifestyle index stratified participants into varying mortality risk groups, with those in the top quintile having 13.5% excess absolute mortality risk over 10 years than those in the bottom 50th centile. Our lifestyle index with easy-assessable behavioural factors and improved generalizability may maximize its usability for personalized risk management

An exploration of the use of simple statistics to measure consensus and stability in Delphi studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The criteria for stopping Delphi studies are often subjective. This study aimed to examine whether consensus and stability in the Delphi process can be ascertained by descriptive evaluation of trends in participants' views.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A three round email-based Delphi required participants (n = 12) to verify their level of agreement with 8 statements, write comments on each if they considered it necessary and rank the statements for importance. Each statement was analysed quantitatively by the percentage of agreement ratings, importance rankings and the amount of comments made for each statement, and qualitatively using thematic analysis. Importance rankings between rounds were compared by calculating Kappa values to observe trends in how the process impacts on subject's views.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Evolution of consensus was shown by increase in agreement percentages, convergence of range with standard deviations of importance ratings, and a decrease in the number of comments made. Stability was demonstrated by a trend of increasing Kappa values.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Following the original use of Delphi in social sciences, Delphi is suggested to be an effective way to gain and measure group consensus in healthcare. However, the proposed analytical process should be followed to ensure maximum validity of results in Delphi methodology for improved evidence of consensual decision-making.</p

Pre-Operative Risk Factors Predict Post-Operative Respiratory Failure after Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVE: Post-operative pulmonary complications significantly affect patient survival rates, but there is still no conclusive evidence regarding the effect of post-operative respiratory failure after liver transplantation on patient prognosis. This study aimed to predict the risk factors for post-operative respiratory failure (PRF) after liver transplantation and the impact on short-term survival rates. DESIGN: The retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in a twelve-bed adult surgical intensive care unit in northern Taiwan. The medical records of 147 liver transplant patients were reviewed from September 2002 to July 2007. Sixty-two experienced post-operative respiratory failure while the remaining 85 patients did not. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Gender, age, etiology, disease history, pre-operative ventilator use, molecular adsorbent re-circulating system (MARS) use, source of organ transplantation, model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score calculated immediately before surgery were assessed for the two groups. The length of the intensive care unit stay, admission duration, and mortality within 30 days, 3 months, and 1 year were also evaluated. Using a logistic regression model, post-operative respiratory failure correlated with diabetes mellitus prior to liver transplantation, pre-operative impaired renal function, pre-operative ventilator use, pre-operative MARS use and deceased donor source of organ transplantation (p<0.05). Once liver transplant patients developed PRF, their length of ICU stay and admission duration were prolonged, significantly increasing their mortality and morbidity (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive pre-operative risk factors significantly influenced the occurrence of post-operative respiratory failure after liver transplantation

Rescue of Photoreceptor Degeneration by Curcumin in Transgenic Rats with P23H Rhodopsin Mutation

The P23H mutation in the rhodopsin gene causes rhodopsin misfolding, altered trafficking and formation of insoluble aggregates leading to photoreceptor degeneration and autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (RP). There are no effective therapies to treat this condition. Compounds that enhance dissociation of protein aggregates may be of value in developing new treatments for such diseases. Anti-protein aggregating activity of curcumin has been reported earlier. In this study we present that treatment of COS-7 cells expressing mutant rhodopsin with curcumin results in dissociation of mutant protein aggregates and decreases endoplasmic reticulum stress. Furthermore we demonstrate that administration of curcumin to P23H-rhodopsin transgenic rats improves retinal morphology, physiology, gene expression and localization of rhodopsin. Our findings indicate that supplementation of curcumin improves retinal structure and function in P23H-rhodopsin transgenic rats. This data also suggest that curcumin may serve as a potential therapeutic agent in treating RP due to the P23H rhodopsin mutation and perhaps other degenerative diseases caused by protein trafficking defects