The impact of the mid-term review on the German agricultural sector

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EU ENLARGEMENT TO TURKEY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE SHAPED BY CHANGES IN MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling of the Turkish GDP growth rate would influence the accession impacts. Results of the Turkish EU-membership simulation show that the impacts on agricultural markets in Turkey are significant, while effects on EU markets are rather limited. The main impact on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of producer prices. With market prices and produced quantities declining, and as the coupled Turkish direct payments and the input subsidies will be replaced by lower payments of the CAP, agricultural income is expected to be reduced especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco). In contrast, accession effects on the Turkish livestock sector are projected to be positive, mainly due to lower feed costs. Furthermore, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. The further analysis reveals that in particular a depreciation of the Turkish lira alters the results of the accession scenario.Turkey, EU enlargement, agricultural markets, macro economy, AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung, Türkei, EU Erweiterung, Agrarmärkte, Makroökonomie, AGMEMOD, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

EU-Trade Agreements - What Are They Dealing With?

International Relations/Trade,

Renewable energy - new forces in global ethanol trade?

The paper presents an extended gravity equation application for the global trade with ethanol. The background and different attempts for a theoretical foundation of the standard approach are discussed. The econometric work takes regional integration schemes into account, as well as the influence of the production factor agricultural land and the level of oil prices on the world market. Results indicate that global bilateral trade flows of ethanol can be explained by a set of comprehensive explanatory variables, including regional agreements and the price level of oil. From a global perspective the EU effect on trade flows is trade diverting as the regional agreement reduces the linkage to world markets and increases the intra-regional level of trade with ethanol. The analysis over time however indicates that the decoupling of the EU ethanol market from the world market is decreasing, potentially reflecting demand increases within the EU.gravity equation, bilateral trade flows, trade with renewable energy, biofuels, and econometric estimation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Der Markt f�r Milch

Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Handels- und Budgeteffekte der WTO-Agrarverhandlungen in der Doha-Runde: Der revidierte Harbinson-Vorschlag

A great deal of attention is currently being paid to the discussion of the reform of global agricultural trade. In this paper, the effects of the revised Harbinson paper (March 2003) are analysed with an extensively extended GTAP model. With the help of a base run, projections are implemented in the form of economic developments as well as already enacted EU policy reforms and measures (Agenda 2000, Mid-Term Review, EU enlargement, EBA agreement) from 1997 to 2014. The base run is compared with a scenario simulating the Doha Round of the WTO based on the revised draft of the Harbinson proposal. The difference between the base run and the model scenario provides information on the effects on EU trade and budget. The revised Harbinson paper leads to a particularly negative development in the trade balances and production quantities for the agricultural and food sectors of the EU-27, which are supported with high import duties, export subsidies and direct payments. Significant effects could be seen particularly in the cases processed food, beef, fruits and vegetables, other cereals and oils and fats. A decomposition of the total effects of the implementation of the Harbinson paper provides detailed insights in the effects resulting from the changes in the complex protection structure of the CAP. The implementation of the Doha Round of the WTO negotiations leads to a reduction in expenses for agricultural market policy of the CAP, caused especially by the production related reduction in direct payments and the complete dismantling of export subsidies.WTO negotiations, Doha Round, Harbinson paper, GTAP model, agricultural trade, EU budget, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

EU ENLARGEMENT - A NEW DIMENSION

Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget. To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the proposal of the EU commission from January 2002. Simulations in a post-Agenda 2000 environment led to heterogeneous country specific impacts in the accession countries whereas the changes within EU-15 and the rest of the world were negligible. Due to adjustments in tariffs, trade balances of the new member states were deteriorating while welfare effects are positive. Transfer of direct payments led to more pronounced effects, especially with regard to output and trade. Without direct payments accession countries would be net contributors to the EU budget. This would change when they become eligible for this subsidy. In general, the analysis shows the importance of a country specific perspective.EU enlargement, Common Agricultural Policy, EU budget, GE-modeling, Political Economy, D58, E62, F15, O52, Q18,

Expansion of Mercosur's Agricultural Exports to the EU: An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Flows

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price competitiveness.agricultural trade, European Union, Mercosur, econometric models, cointegration, International Relations/Trade, C22, Q17,

Narodna knjižnica kao kulturni centar zajednice s osvrtom na Gradsku knjižnicu Pregrada

Ovaj rad bavi se proučavanjem narodnih knjižnica kao kulturnih centara zajednice s osvrtom na Gradsku knjižnicu Pregrada. Prvi dio rada govori općenito o narodnim knjižnicama, dakle iznosi definiciju narodnih knjižnica i objašnjava njihovu važnost te govori o službama i uslugama narodnih knjižnica i o njihovim zadaćama. Također, govori o uslugama i zadaćama narodne knjižnice koje su vezane uz knjižnicu kao kulturni centar zajednice. Temeljna literatura korištena prilikom proučavanja službi, usluga i zadaća narodnih knjižnica su IFLAine smjernice za narodne knjižnice i IFLA-in i UNESCO-ov Manifest za narodne knjižnice. Nadalje, rad govori o Gradskoj knjižnici Pregrada. Donosi istraživanje koje se odnosi na Gradsku knjižnicu Pregrada i uključuje anketni upitnik proveden među korisnicima Gradske knjižnice te istraživanje o broju kulturnih događaja koje knjižnica provodi. Također, u radu će biti nabrojane i opisane brojne kulturne aktivnosti koje knjižnica redovito organizira. Glavna pretpostavka od koje se polazi je da je Gradska knjižnica Pregrada kulturni centar zajednice, odnosno grada Pregrade.This work deals with public libraries as cultural centres of community with an overview on Pregrada Public library. First part of this work is talking about public libraries in general – it gives a definition of public libraries and explains their importance. It also talks about public libraries services and mission. Furthermore, this work is about services and mission that are important for libraries in a cultural way. Basic literature for this work are IFLA Public Library Service Guidelines and UNESCO/IFLA Public Library Manifesto. Also, this work talks about Pregrada Public library. There was a research conducted about Pregrada Public library which includes a questionnaire about how users of Public library are satisfied with the services that the library gives them and a research about cultural events that the library organizes. This work will present many of cultural events that the library organised. The main aim of the work is that the Pregrada Public library is a cultural centre of community, apropos cultural centre of Pregrada city

Lighting on the Road to Explore Future Directions for Agricultural Modelling in the EU – some Considerations on what Needs to be Done

In the field of agri-food, impact assessments to support policy decision-making are often based on simulations delivered by models. The increasing complexity of policies affecting the agri-food sector requires improving thecapacities of current models, connect ing or redesigning them to deliver forward-looking insights on policy objectives. The EU-Project ‘Support for Policy Relevant Modelling of Agriculture’ (SUPREMA) has identifiedupcoming needs in the research and policy agenda, while exploring the feasibility of those potential modelling exercises by testing the existing tools. The assessment has pointed out necessities for model extensions anddevelopment of new tools. Besides, it has revealed the potential of model integration and collaboration to supplement the outcomes of individual models. This is supported in view of the food system approach that isbecoming the fundamental framework for analysing the dynamics of the agri -food sector when considering it from a broad perspective. This paper describes shortly how the assessment was conducted and presents the outcomes and lessons learnt from the project. It pays special attention to the challenges and the policy priorities that are expected to become important issues in the policy agenda in the coming years