Incapacity Benefit Reforms Pilot: Findings from a longitudinal panel of clients

The Incapacity Benefit reforms were introduced in October 2003 and aim to increase the number of incapacity benefit recipients who move towards and into paid work. The package of measures that comprise the reforms is being Piloted in seven areas of England, Scotland and Wales. This report is based on research conducted by the Social Policy Research Unit, the National Centre for Social Research and the Policy Studies Institute in 2004/05 and presents findings from the first cohort of a longitudinal qualitative study of the views and experiences of incapacity benefit recipients who have taken part in the Pilots

Methods of Disease Risk Analysis in Wildlife Translocations for Conservation Purposes

Wildlife is intentionally and unintentionally translocated regularly carrying with it a range of parasites and pathogens. There are numerous examples of disease outbreaks originating from translocated animals. Managers of conservation projects, which involve translocating wildlife have a responsibility to protect humans, domestic animals, other wildlife and the ecosystem from negative effects of disease carried by the focus species. There is a significant lack of data available on the susceptibility, epidemiology and impacts of pathogens in wildlife populations making preventative actions challenging. Risk analysis has been developed to provide an objective, repeatable, transparent and documented assessment of the risks posed by a course of action. Standardised techniques have been developed and are utilised routinely to aid decision making. It is a tool used to guide policy making and disease control planning by governments and international organisations such as the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health). Qualitative risk analysis is particularly useful in fields when quantitative data is lacking. Risk analysis has been developed for use in animal health risk management and subsequently adapted for wildlife disease management scenarios, cumulating in publication of the OIE/IUCN Manual of Procedures for Wildlife Disease Risk Analysis (2014). This paper considers further modification of risk analysis methods for wildlife translocations undertaken for conservation purposes. The challenges of these specific scenarios including hazard identification, multiple epidemiological pathways and data gaps are addressed and tools which could improve the usefulness of the technique, such as developing scenario trees and rating uncertainty are proposed

The influence of risk factors associated with captive rearing on post-release survival in translocated cirl buntings Emberiza cirlus in the UK

Population decline resulting from agricultural intensification led to contraction of the range of the cirl bunting Emberiza cirlus in the UK to a small area of south Devon. As part of the UK Biodiversity Action Plan for the species, a project to re-establish a population in suitable habitat in Cornwall was undertaken during 2006–2011, in which chicks were removed from the nest in Devon, hand-reared and then delayed-released. The survival of the birds to four time points in the year after release was analysed in relation to the effect of rearing factors, using a multivariable logistic regression model. Individuals with higher body weight at capture were more likely to survive to 1 January and 1 May in the year following release, and individuals released in June and July were more likely to survive than those released in August. Individuals released in 2006 and 2011 had a higher survival rate than those released during 2007–2010. Timing of capture, time spent at each stage in captivity, medication and the detection of parasites in the brood had no significant effect. Immunosuppressive disease, weather factors and predator activity may have led to some of the observed differences in survival. This analysis provides evidence with which to plan future translocation projects for cirl buntings and other passerine birds

Risks from disease caused by Mycobacterium orygis as a consequence of Greater one-horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) translocation in Nepal

The greater one‐horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is listed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List. Mycobacterium orygis–associated disease was identified in a single greater one‐horned rhino in Chitwan National Park in February 2015 prior to a planned translocation of five greater one‐horned rhinoceros from Chitwan National Park to Bardia National Park for conservation purposes. This paper describes a qualitative disease risk analysis conducted retrospectively post‐translocation for Mycobacterium orygis and this translocation, with the aim to improve the understanding of disease threats to the conservation of greater one‐horned rhino. The disease risk analysis method used was devised by Sainsbury & Vaughan‐Higgins (Conservation Biology, 26, 2017, 442) with modifications by Bobadilla Suarez et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 1) and Rideout et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) and included the use of a scenario tree and an analysis of uncertainty as recommended by Murray et al. (Handbook on import risk analysis for animals and animal products. Volume 1. Introduction and qualitative risk analysis, 2004), and the first time this combination of methods has been used to assess the risk from disease in a conservation translocation. The scenario tree and analysis of uncertainty increased the clarity and transparency of the analysis. Rideout et al.’s (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) criteria were used to assess the source hazard and may be useful in comparative assessment of source hazards for future conservation translocations. The likelihood of release into the destination site of Mycobacterium orygis as a source hazard was estimated as of low risk, the risk of exposure of populations at the destination was of high risk and the likelihood of biological and environmental consequences was low. Overall, the risk from disease associated with Mycobacterium orygis as a result of this translocation was found to be low. Recommendations on disease risk management strategies could be improved with a better understanding of the epidemiology including the presence/absence of Mycobacterium orygis in greater one‐horned rhino to develop effective disease risk management strategies

Investigation of the association of weight loss with radiographic hip osteoarthritis in older community-dwelling female adults

Objective: Most guidelines recommending weight loss for hip osteoarthritis are based on research on knee osteoarthritis. Prior studies found no association between weight loss and hip osteoarthritis, but no previous studies have targeted older adults. Therefore, we aimed to determine whether there is any clear benefit of weight loss for radiographic hip osteoarthritis in older adults because weight loss is associated with health risks in older adults. Methods: We used data from white female participants aged ≥65 years from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. Our exposure of interest was weight change from baseline to follow-up at 8 years. Our outcomes were the development of radiographic hip osteoarthritis (RHOA) and the progression of RHOA over 8 years. Generalized estimating equations (clustering of 2 hips per participant) were used to investigate the association between exposure and outcomes adjusted for major covariates. Results: There was a total of 11,018 hips from 5509 participants. There was no associated benefit of weight loss for either of our outcomes. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the development and progression of RHOA were 0.99 (0.92–1.07) and 0.97 (0.86–1.09) for each 5% weight loss, respectively. The results were consistent in sensitivity analyses where participants were limited to those who reported trying to lose weight and who also had a body mass index in the overweight or obese range. Conclusion: Our findings suggest no associated benefit of weight loss in older female adults in the structure of the hip joint as assessed by radiography

Some explorations of the life history ratios to describe length composition, spawning-per-recruit, and the spawning potential ratio

Evaluating the status of data-poor fish stocks is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the basic life history parameters: the natural mortality rate (M), the von Bertalanffy growth parameters (L∞ and k), and the length at maturity (Lm). A common approach to estimate these individual parameters has been to use the Beverton–Holt life history invariants, the ratios M/k and Lm/L∞, especially for estimating M. In this study, we assumed no knowledge of the individual parameters, and explored how the information on life history strategy contained in these ratios can be applied to assessing data-poor stocks. We developed analytical models to develop a relationship between M/k and the von Bertalanffy growth curve, and demonstrate the link between the life history ratios and yield- and spawning-per-recruit. We further developed the previously recognized relationship between M/k and yield- and spawning-per-recruit by using information on Lm/L∞, knife-edge selectivity (Lc/L∞), and the ratio of fishing to natural mortality (F/M), to demonstrate the link between an exploited stock's expected length composition, and its spawning potential ratio (SPR), an internationally recognized measurement of stock status. Variation in length-at-age and logistic selectivity patterns were incorporated in the model to demonstrate how SPR can be calculated from the observed size composition of the catch; an advance which has potential as a cost-effective method for assessing data-poor stocks. A companion paper investigates the effects of deviations in the main assumptions of the model on the application of the analytical models developed in this study as a cost-effective method for stock assessment [Hordyk, A. R., Ono, K., Valencia, S., Loneragan, N. R., and Prince, J. D. this issue. A novel length based empirical estimation method of spawning potential ratio (SPR), and tests of its performance, for small-scale, data-poor fisheries.

The Relative Importance of Different Trophic Pathways for Secondary Exposure to Anticoagulant Rodenticides

Secondary exposure of predators to anticoagulant rodenticides, and in particular second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs), is a global phenomenon. The widespread and large-scale nature of this exposure has attracted considerable concern, although the consequences in terms of likelihood of poisoning of individuals and resultant impacts on populations are not well characterised. Secondary exposure of predators may as rise from once or more of: (i) eating contaminated commensal rodents subject to control (target species are typically rats and house mice); (ii) consumption of contaminated non-target small mammals (such as Peromyscus, Microtus, and Apodemus species) that encounter and feed on what are rodent-attractive baits; (iii) consumption of non-rodent vertebrate and invertebrate prey that may also incidentally encounter and eat baits. We hypothesised that predators feeding primarily on target species may be most at risk of exposure to SGARs while those predominantly taking non-mammalian prey may be at least risk. We tested this hypothesis by comparing exposure, determined from the presence and magnitude of SGAR liver residues, in red kites (Milvus milvus), which feeds extensively on rats, in barn owls (Tyto alba), kestrels (Falco tinnunculus), and tawny owls (Strix aluco) that feed widely on non-target small mammals, and in sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus) that feed predominantly on small birds. We found that the scale and magnitude of exposure was broadly consistent with our hypothesis, and that controlling for age in the analysis could be important as older birds can accumulate residues with age. However, exposure in kestrels was typically greater than that in barn owls and tawny owls, despite what is thought to be a general similarity among the species in their diets. We discuss the relative importance of trophic pathways relative to other factors that may drive secondary exposure in predators, and confirm that species that feed on rats or other target species may be at most risk of exposure and poisoning

Revisiting the concept of Beverton -Holt life-history invariants with the aim of informing data-poor fisheries assessment

The complexity and cost of assessment techniques prohibits their application to 90% of fisheries. Simple generic approaches are needed for the world's small-scale and data-poor fisheries. This meta-analysis of the relationship between spawning potential and the normalized size and age of 123 marine species suggests that the so-called Beverton–Holt life-history invariants (BH-LHI; Lm/L∞, M/k, M × Agem) actually vary together in relation to life-history strategy, determining the relationship between size, age, and reproductive potential for each species. Although little realized, the common assumption of unique values for the BH-LHI also implies that all species share the same relationship between size, age, and reproductive potential. This implicit assumption is not supported by this meta-analysis, which suggests that there is considerable but predictable natural variation in the BH-LHI ratios and the relationships between size, age, and reproductive potential that they determine. We believe that this reconceptualization of the BH-LHI has potential to provide a theoretical framework for “borrowing” knowledge from well-studied species to apply to related, unstudied species and populations, and when applied together with the assessment technique described by Hordyk et al. (this issue b), could make simple forms of size-based assessment possible for many currently unassessable fish stocks