Migration, remittances and forests : disentangling the impact of population and economic growth on forests

International migration has increased rapidly in recent decades and this has been accompanied by a remarkable increase in transfers made by migrants to their home countries. This paper investigates the effect of the rural economic growth brought about by migration and remittances on Nepal's Himalayan forests. The authors assemble a unique village-panel dataset combining remote sensing data on land use and forest cover change with data from the census and multiple rounds of living standards surveys to test various inter-relationships between population, economic growth and forests. The results suggest that rural economic growth spurred by remittances has had an overall positive impact on forests. The paper also finds that remittances caused an increase in rural wages and an increase in income, but a decrease in land prices. Considered together, however, the relationship between forests and remittances is driven largely through the income channel, indicating that the demand for amenities provided by forests in the rural Nepali setting may have been more important than factor prices in influencing land use changes for the period of the study.Population Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Forestry,Climate Change and Environment,Wildlife Resources

The impact of economic shocks on global undernourishment

This paper estimates the impact of the 2008 food price spike and the 2009 contraction in global growth on undernourishment rates. The analysis is based on a methodology that uses a calorie-income relationship and income distribution data. The authors find that the 2008 global food price spike may have increased global undernourishment by about 6.8 percent, or 63 million people. Moreover, they show that the sharp slowdown in global growth in 2009 could have contributed to 41 million more undernourished people compared with what would have happened if the economic crisis had not occurred.Food&Beverage Industry,Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Regional Economic Development

Can we rely on cash transfers to protect dietary diversity during food crises ? estimates from Indonesia

The 2008"food price crisis"and more recent spikes in food prices have led to a greater focus on policies and programs to cushion their impact on poverty and malnutrition. Estimating the income elasticity of micro-nutrients and assessing how they change during such crises is an important part of the policy debate as it affects the effectiveness of cash transfer and nutritional supplementation programs. This paper assesses these issues using data from two cross-sectional household surveys in Indonesia carried out before and soon after the 1997/98 economic crisis, which led to a sharp increase in food prices. First, the authors examine how the income elasticity of the starchy staple ratio differs between the two survey rounds using non-parametric as well as regression methods. Second, they provide updated estimates of the income elasticity for important nutrients in Indonesia. The analysis finds that (i) summary measures such as the income elasticity of the starchy staple ratio may not change during crises but this masks important differences across specific nutrients; (ii) methods matter -- the ordinary least squares estimates for the income elasticity of micro-nutrients are likely to be misleading due to measurement error bias; (iii) controlling for measurement error, the income elasticity of some key micro-nutrients, such as iron, calcium, and vitamin B1, is significantly higher in the crisis year compared with a normal year; and (iv) the income elasticity for certain micro-nutrients -- vitamin C in this case -- remains close to zero. These results suggest that cash transfer programs may be even more effective during crises to protect the consumption of many essential micro-nutrients compared with non-crisis periods but in order to ensure that all micro-nutrients are consumed, specific nutritional supplementation programs are also likely to be required.Food&Beverage Industry,Nutrition,Rural Poverty Reduction,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality

Inequality of opportunities in the labor market: Evidence from life in transition surveys in Europe and Central Asia

In this paper we quantify inequality of opportunity in labor market outcomes in Europe and Central Asia using the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) methodology. Using data from the 2006 Life in Transition Survey we also compare HOI-based measures of inequality with expenditure-based measures and examine the extent to which these measures resonate with perceptions of life satisfaction and fairness. Findings show substantial inequality of opportunity in employment status and large variations across countries. Correlations between measures and perceptions of inequality suggest that inequality between groups as opposed to overall inequality has stronger association with perceptions of fairness in society

Putting money where the mouth is: does aid to Nepal finance what the donors say they want to finance?

This paper replicates and extends a well known model of quantifying categorical fungibility of foreign aid to study the effect of aid on government consumption, magnitude and composition of government investment and revenue mobilization in Nepal. I find that aid intended for a particular sector has, by and large, been spent within that sector and, in fact, induced the government to augment its spending on that particular sector for most categories studied. This broadly corroborates the evidence on the “flypaper effect” of aid not just at the aggregate level but also at the sectoral level. I also find that aid has enhanced the government’s revenue effort but not quite to the extent that would enable the government to self-finance the inflating government consumption, which, I find, has a strong positive aid elasticity

The geography of human capital: insights from the subnational human capital index in Indonesia

This paper explores the spatial heterogeneity in the human capital potential of Indonesia’s next generation by constructing and analyzing sub-national human capital indices (HCI) for 34 provinces and 514 districts in Indonesia. The paper identifies data and methodological constraints in the construction of these sub-national indices and proposes and implements strategies to overcome these challenges. Several interesting findings emerge from the analysis. First, Indonesian’s young generation can only achieve 53% of their future productivity relative to the full benchmark of health and education. Second, the variation in aggregate human capital potential across space in Indonesia is staggering: some parts of country are almost at par with countries like Vietnam and China while others have human capital levels that are comparable to Chad, Niger, and Sierra Leone. Third, differences in learning outcomes as measured by harmonized test scores account for the largest share of the variation in human capital across Indonesia, suggesting that the challenge of providing quality education remains one of the most important obstacles to equalizing opportunities for the next generation of Indonesians. And fourth, the correlation between government spending and performance on HCI at the district level appears rather weak, reinforcing conclusions reached by other recent studies that have highlighted the importance of focusing on the quality of spending. Finally, this paper also shows that Indonesia’s human capital registered a modest improvement from 0.50 in 2013 to 0.53 in 2018 with stronger progress observed among the already top performing provinces

Beyond Unicorns : Harnessing Digital Technologies for Inclusion in Indonesia (English):Complete Report

Similar to many other countries around the world, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has hit Indonesia hard. Latest estimates suggest that about 5.1 million people—equivalent to 2.4 percent of the working-age population—have lost their jobs, while an additional 24 million have had to work reduced hours due to the pandemic. As many as 50 percent of workers have experienced a reduction in earnings. The impact on living standards has been devastating, with more than 2.2 million Indonesians estimated to have been pushed into COVID-19-induced poverty in 2020. One unexpected silver lining from the crisis, however, has been the turbo-charged adoption of digital technologies. Businesses, both large and small, have flocked to digital technologies to try to ensure the continuity of their operations. School closures have forced students and teachers to adapt and explore digitally enabled remote learning options, including the adoption of a variety of EdTech solutions. HealthTech apps enabling remote consultations and the delivery of medicine have seen unprecedented growth in adoption rates. Confined at home due to mobility restrictions, Indonesians have switched to the internet for their entertainment and social needs, driving sharp growth in the usage of digital media (music and video streaming) and communications applications. With this pandemic-induced flight to digital expected to be permanent to a large extent, there is excitement about an even greater acceleration in what was already the fastest growing digital economy in Southeast Asia. But at the same time questions have also emerged about the possibility of the differential access to and adoption of digital technologies compounding existing inequalities. For a country that considers achieving balanced development one of its key priorities, this is an important new challenge

Beyond Unicorns : Harnessing Digital Technologies for Inclusion in Indonesia (English):Complete Report

Similar to many other countries around the world, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has hit Indonesia hard. Latest estimates suggest that about 5.1 million people—equivalent to 2.4 percent of the working-age population—have lost their jobs, while an additional 24 million have had to work reduced hours due to the pandemic. As many as 50 percent of workers have experienced a reduction in earnings. The impact on living standards has been devastating, with more than 2.2 million Indonesians estimated to have been pushed into COVID-19-induced poverty in 2020. One unexpected silver lining from the crisis, however, has been the turbo-charged adoption of digital technologies. Businesses, both large and small, have flocked to digital technologies to try to ensure the continuity of their operations. School closures have forced students and teachers to adapt and explore digitally enabled remote learning options, including the adoption of a variety of EdTech solutions. HealthTech apps enabling remote consultations and the delivery of medicine have seen unprecedented growth in adoption rates. Confined at home due to mobility restrictions, Indonesians have switched to the internet for their entertainment and social needs, driving sharp growth in the usage of digital media (music and video streaming) and communications applications. With this pandemic-induced flight to digital expected to be permanent to a large extent, there is excitement about an even greater acceleration in what was already the fastest growing digital economy in Southeast Asia. But at the same time questions have also emerged about the possibility of the differential access to and adoption of digital technologies compounding existing inequalities. For a country that considers achieving balanced development one of its key priorities, this is an important new challenge

Seismic Behaviour of the Low-Rise RC Buildings in Nonlinear Static and Dynamic Analysis

This paper presents the behavior of three different types of irregular low-rise buildings, subjected to earthquake load. The study is performed by numerically modelling the buildings for the linear static analysis. Structural parameters displacements, drift, and storey shear are checked for various time periods of the building. The same models are also analyzed using nonlinear pushover analysis. The model is made nonlinear by introducing the hinges in the beam and column. The execution of nonlinear analysis is done by applying push in X and push in Y directions in controlled displacement mode. After the execution of nonlinear pushover analysis, different colours of hinges were formed, which were used as a basis for the study. The parameters like maximum displacement, max storey drift, and storey shear were computed in both in X and Y directions. Peak ground acceleration of Gorkha earthquake, EI Centro earthquake, and Kobe earthquakes was used for time history analysis. The results for max displacement, base shear, and max storey drift are presented and the comparison is made for the different building models. The study showed that a building behaves well in seismic loading even though they have an irregular plan with a larger structure size, compared to a building that has a regular plan and a smaller structural member size.</jats:p