Monthly Runoff Forecasting by Non-Generalizing Machine Learning Model and Feature Space Transformation (Vakhsh River Case Study)

Energy prices and сost of materials for solar and wind power plants have increased over the past year. Therefore, significance increases for the hydropower and long-term (1-10 years) planning generation for the existing hydropower plants, which requires forecasting the average monthly values of the river flow. This task is especially urgent for countries without their own oil-fields and opportunity to invest in the creation of solar or wind power plants. The aim of the research is to decrease the mean absolute forecasting error of the long-term prediction for the Vakhsh River flow (Tajikistan) based on the long-term observations. A study of existing methods for the river runoff forecasting in relation to the object under consideration was carried out, and a new transformation model for the space of the input features was developed. The most significant results are the decrease in the average forecast error in the Vakhsh river flow achieved by the use of the proposed space of polynomial logarithmic features in comparison with other methods, and the need to use at least the 20 year-old observational data for the long-term operation planning of the hydropower plants and cascades of the hydropower plants obtained from the results of computational experiments. The significance of the results lies in the fact that a new approach to the long-term forecasting of river flow has been proposed and verified using the long-term observations. This approach does not require the use of the long-term meteorological forecasts, which are not possible to obtain with high accuracy for all regions. © 2022 Problems of the Regional Energetics. All rights reserved

RESEARCH OF STRUCTURE AND COMPOSITION OF FILMS SOLID SOLUTION (SIC)1-X (ALN)X, RECEIVED BY METHOD MAGNETRON DEPOSITION

Method of magnetron sputtering targets polycrystalline SiC-AlN on substrates SiC and Al2O3 thin films received solid solutions (SiC)1-x(AlN)x. The methods of Xray and electron microscopy studies the structure and composition of films. There are factors that determine the composition and structure of films, as well as conditions for the formation of monocrystalline films of (SiC)1-x(AlN)x to the substrate SiC. The basic technological parameters of process magnetron sedimentation of films (SiC)1-x(AlN)x are calculated

Variation in Luminescence Characteristics and Paramagnetic Defect Centres in Fine-Grained Quartz From a Loess-Palaeosol Sequence in Tajikistan: Implications for Provenance Studies in Aeolian Environments

Trapped charge characteristics in quartz are of increasing interest for their utility as indicators of sediment provenance. These include sensitivity of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and thermoluminescence (TL) signal and paramagnetic E1’ defect centre in quartz. Up until now, these methods have largely been used independently in provenance investigations, especially in aeolian systems. Variations in quartz OSL and TL signal sensitivity in loess-palaeosol sequences has been linked to shifts in sediment source corresponding to climatic fluctuations. However, the processes responsible for observed variation in OSL and TL sensitivity in quartz, including its link to the original rock source and/or its sedimentary history, remains a topic of contention. On the other hand, the intensity of E1’ defect centre in quartz is known to reflect the provenance of quartz, and is also routinely utilised as a provenance indicator in aeolian studies. In this study we aim to understand the variations in E1’ intensity and OSL (and TL) sensitivity by direct comparison of these characteristics in fine-grained quartz from a c. 60 m-thick loess-palaeosol sequence in Tajikistan. In doing so, we investigate the natural processes that may have led to variability in trapped-charge characteristics over the c. 500 ky timespan covered by the sequence. Our results suggest that apart from the inherent link to its provenance signature, the observed luminescence sensitivity of quartz especially in loess-palaeosol sequences are largely influenced by depositional and post-depositional processes during soil formation

A Novel Proxy for Tracking the Provenance of Dust Based on Paired E_1'-Peroxy Paramagnetic Defect Centers in Fine-Grained Quartz

Crystal lattice defects in quartz have long been exploited for age determination, yet also show potential for sediment provenance studies. Here, we introduce a novel method for tracking aeolian dust provenance by utilizing the natural accumulation of E1’ and peroxy defect centers in quartz. Our approach is based on the previously observed premise that E1’ and peroxy centers arise from Frenkel defect pairs, and that their concentration increases with the age of the quartz-bearing source rock. We propose that these defect centers can be utilized as a characteristic feature of the source rock and consequently, for fingerprinting sediments derived from it. We successfully apply our new protocol to distinguish fine-grained quartz extracted from loess deposits from two regions in Central Asia which are known to derive from different source material of differing age. Our method offers strong potential for identifying variability in source, both spatially and through time down sedimentary sequences