Subsequent mortality in survivors of Ebola virus disease in Guinea: a nationwide retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A record number of people survived Ebola virus infection in the 2013-16 outbreak in west Africa, and the number of survivors has increased after subsequent outbreaks. A range of post-Ebola sequelae have been reported in survivors, but little is known about subsequent mortality. We aimed to investigate subsequent mortality among people discharged from Ebola treatment units. METHODS: From Dec 8, 2015, Surveillance Active en ceinture, the Guinean national survivors' monitoring programme, attempted to contact and follow-up all survivors of Ebola virus disease who were discharged from Ebola treatment units. Survivors were followed up until Sept 30, 2016, and deaths up to this timepoint were recorded. Verbal autopsies were done to gain information about survivors of Ebola virus disease who subsequently died from their closest family members. We calculated the age-standardised mortality ratio compared with the general Guinean population, and assessed risk factors for mortality using survival analysis and a Cox proportional hazards regression model. FINDINGS: Of the 1270 survivors of Ebola virus disease who were discharged from Ebola treatment units in Guinea, information was retrieved for 1130 (89%). Compared with the general Guinean population, survivors of Ebola virus disease had a more than five-times increased risk of mortality up to Dec 31, 2015 (age-standardised mortality ratio 5·2 [95% CI 4·0-6·8]), a mean of 1 year of follow-up after discharge. Thereafter (ie, from Jan 1-Sept 30, 2016), mortality did not differ between survivors of Ebola virus disease and the general population. (0·6 [95% CI 0·2-1·4]). Overall, 59 deaths were reported, and the cause of death was tentatively attributed to renal failure in 37 cases, mostly on the basis of reported anuria. Longer stays (ie, equal to or longer than the median stay) in Ebola treatment units were associated with an increased risk of late death compared with shorter stays (adjusted hazard ratio 2·62 [95% CI 1·43-4·79]). INTERPRETATION: Mortality was high in people who recovered from Ebola virus disease and were discharged from Ebola treatment units in Guinea. The finding that survivors who were hospitalised for longer during primary infection had an increased risk of death, could help to guide current and future survivors' programmes and in the prioritisation of funds in resource-constrained settings. The role of renal failure in late deaths after recovery from Ebola virus disease should be investigated. FUNDING: WHO, International Medical Corps, and the Guinean Red Cross

Multivariate forecasting of mineral commodities prices: Implications for natural resource scarcity.

A comprehensive methodology is developed in this study to assess the scarcity of nonrenewable natural resources. The commodities examined in the study are: aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, tin, molybdenum, steel, oil, and coal. Multivariate state space and extensive learning model methods are used to project real prices of mineral resource products to the year 2011. The methodology is conceived in multivariate dimension to accommodate economic theory of price formation; namely price of a commodity is dependent on prices of complement and substitute products in equilibrium market conditions of supply and demand. Contrary to previous studies which examined each commodity price separately, this study employs simultaneous forecasting of economic variables theorized to be determinants of commodity prices. The multivariate state space technique uses annual data and thus focuses implicitly on disaggregated economic relations. The extensive system of learning models uses cumulative data, and thus facuses on major trends and patterns in economic relations. These techniques are used to assess economic scarcity of mineral resources by means of "holistic" forecasts of commodity price trends. On the basis of projected trends to the year 2011, the study found that all commodities prices are either declining or flat; thus indicating a general failure to support a claim of increasing scarcity of mineral resources. However, observation of the entire price series for some commodities reveals increasing trends in prices, and thus increasing economic scarcity. Conflicting scarcity signals are examined, interpreted, and qualified in light of economic realities of each commodity market, such as the possible influence of market structure and non-market forces interferences on price trends

Dose-Dependent Neuroprotective Effects of Bovine Lactoferrin Following Neonatal Hypoxia–Ischemia in the Immature Rat Brain

Injuries to the developing brain due to hypoxia–ischemia (HI) are common causes of neurological disabilities in preterm babies. HI, with oxygen deprivation to the brain or reduced cerebral blood perfusion due to birth asphyxia, often leads to severe brain damage and sequelae. Injury mechanisms include glutamate excitotoxicity, oxidative stress, blood–brain barrier dysfunction, and exacerbated inflammation. Nutritional intervention is emerging as a therapeutic alternative to prevent and rescue brain from HI injury. Lactoferrin (Lf) is an iron-binding protein present in saliva, tears, and breast milk, which has been shown to have antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic properties when administered to mothers as a dietary supplement during pregnancy and/or lactation in preclinical studies of developmental brain injuries. However, despite Lf’s promising neuroprotective effects, there is no established dose. Here, we tested three different doses of dietary maternal Lf supplementation using the postnatal day 3 HI model and evaluated the acute neurochemical damage profile using 1H Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) and long-term microstructure alterations using advanced diffusion imaging (DTI/NODDI) allied to protein expression and histological analysis. Pregnant Wistar rats were fed either control diet or bovine Lf supplemented chow at 0.1, 1, or 10 g/kg/body weight concentration from the last day of pregnancy (embryonic day 21–E21) to weaning. At postnatal day 3 (P3), pups from both sexes had their right common carotid artery permanently occluded and were exposed to 6% oxygen for 30 min. Sham rats had the incision but neither surgery nor hypoxia episode. At P4, MRS was performed on a 9.4 T scanner to obtain the neurochemical profile in the cortex. At P4 and P25, histological analysis and protein expression were assessed in the cortex and hippocampus. Brain volumes and ex vivo microstructural analysis using DTI/NODDI parameters were performed at P25. Acute metabolic disturbance induced in cortical tissue by HIP3 was reversed with all three doses of Lf. However, data obtained from MRS show that Lf neuroprotective effects were modulated by the dose. Through western blotting analysis, we observed that HI pups supplemented with Lf at 0.1 and 1 g/kg were able to counteract glutamatergic excitotoxicity and prevent metabolic failure. When 10 g/kg was administered, we observed reduced brain volumes, increased astrogliosis, and hypomyelination, pointing to detrimental effects of high Lf dose. In conclusion, Lf supplementation attenuates, in a dose-dependent manner, the acute and long-term cerebral injury caused by HI. Lf reached its optimal effects at a dose of 1 g/kg, which pinpoints the need to better understand effects of Lf, the pathways involved and possible harmful effects. These new data reinforce our knowledge regarding neuroprotection in developmental brain injury using Lf through lactation and provide new insights into lactoferrin’s neuroprotection capacities and limitation for immature brains