Comparison between Measurements and Models For Daily Global Solar Radiation of Urumuqi

In this study, daily global solar radiation data at Urumuqi in 1995-2004 were investigated. Sunshine based models were used to estimate the global radiation. Estimated values were compared with measured values in terms of statistical error tests such as mean percentage error (MPE), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE). The model performing best was selected. The global solar radiation estimated from the best model was compared with measured values. It was determined that the predicted values have good agreement with the measured values at high daily global solar radiation

General Formula for Estimation of Monthly Mean Global Solar Radiation in Different Climates on the South and North Coasts of Iran

Using sunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, average of maximum temperature, and ground albedo as the input of several radiation models, the monthly average daily solar radiation on horizontal surface in various coastal cities of the South (25.23∘ N) and the North (38.42∘ N) of Iran are estimated. Several radiation models are tested and further are revised by taking into consideration the effects of relative humidity, ground albedo, and Sun-Earth distance. Model validation is performed by using up to 13 years (1988–2000) of daily solar observations. Errors are calculated using MBE, MABE, MPE, and RMSE statistical criteria (see nomenclature) and further a general formula which estimates the global radiation in different climates of coastal regions is suggested. The proposed method shows a good agreement (less than 7% deviation) with the long-term pyranometric data. In comparison with other works done so far, the suggested method performs a higher degree of accuracy for those of two regions. The model results can be extended to other locations in coastal regions where solar data are not available

Evaluation of the possible changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) trend in some arid climates of Iran since last five decades

Climate is an important and determinning factor affecting many agricultural products. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an effective parameter in assessing climate change impacts on environment in a region. This parameter is determined by the difference between minimum and maximum air temperatures. In this study, changes in the daily DTR collected from 11 synoptic stations were analyzed. The selected sites cover 50 years of daily observations from 1956 to 2005, specifying suitable geographical distribution throughout the country. Kolmogrov-Smirnov test was used to check the normal distribution and Run-test to control the quality of the temperature data. Trend investigation of DTR data was carried out by using Mann-Kendall test (MK) and linear regression method (LR) at 95 percent confidence level for monthly and annual time scales. About 18 percent of the study sites showed no significant DTR trend, but the rest of the sites (82%) revealed significant negative (decreasing) trends for the observed diurnal temperature difference time series. However, few months experienced no DTR trend in the selected sites. In about 95.5 percent of the studies cases, the existence of trend and the decreasing DTR trends obtained by MK test were also confirmed by the LR method. In this research, the minimum and maximum slopes were determined by the LR method. The analysis of the measured temperature data showed an average decreasing in DTR slope about -0.445oC per decade for the selected sites. According to the results, the decreasing DTR trends in northern and central sites were more significant than those in the southern regions. Detailed evaluation and substantiation

Mid-level synoptic analysis of flood-generating systems in South-west of Iran (case study: Dalaki watershed river basin)

Flood is known as one of the most distractive natural disaster worldwide. Therefore, its prediction is of great importance from the socio-economical point of view. Despite the great improvement in computational techniques and numerical weather prediction approaches, so far, in Iran, an acceptable flood prediction method has not yet been introduced. The main aim of this study is to recognize and classify the patterns of synoptic systems leading to torrential rainfalls in a watershed basin located in south-west of Iran. In this research, 20 major floods characterized by high rainfall intensities and severe damage were selected. The pattern, extension, and the direction of movement of the selected synoptic maps from surface to 500 hPa pressure levels were identified. Furthermore, the position of cyclones, anti-cyclones and mid-level trough lines were carefully tracked and classified into different groups. The results show that the major severe floods occurring in Dalaki watershed river basin are mainly influenced by strengthening of the center of Sudan heat low (SHL) and the coincidence moisture feeding by the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. It was found that simultaneous merging of the SHL system and Mediterranean frontal system would intensify the flood intensities over the basin. The mean positions of high pressures, low pressures, the Red Sea trough lines and 1015 hPa isobars of the major floods are also discussed