Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation

Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapidWhat-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ("We are the world", "Should I stay or should I go" which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem

A Possible protective effect of nut consumption on risk of coronary heart-disease: the adventist health study

Background -Although dietary factors are suspected to be important determinants of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, the direct evidence is relatively sparse. Methods. -The Adventist Health Study is a prospective cohort investigation of 31 208 non-Hispanic white California Seventh-Day Adventists. Extensive dietary information was obtained at baseline, along with the values of traditional coronary risk factors. These were related to risk of definite fatal CHD or definite nonfatal myocardial infarction

The risk of child and adolescent overweight is related to types of food consumed

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background/Aims</p> <p>To investigate the association between the risk of overweight and the consumption of food groups in children and adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 1764 healthy children and adolescents (age 6-19y) attending 16 Seventh-Day Adventist schools and 13 public schools using a 106-item non-quantitative food frequency questionnaire from the late 1980 Child-Adolescent Blood Pressure Study. Logistic regression models were used to compute the risk of overweight according to consumption of grains, nuts, vegetables, fruits, meats/fish/eggs, dairy, and, low nutrient-dense foods (LNDF).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The frequency of consumption of grains, nuts, vegetables and LNDF were inversely related to the risk of being overweight and dairy increased the risk. Specifically, the odds ratio (95% CI) for children in the highest quartile or tertile of consumption compared with the lowest quartile or tertile were as follows: grains 0.59(0.41-0.83); nuts 0.60(0.43-0.85); vegetables 0.67(0.48-0.94); LNDF 0.43(0.29-0.63); and, dairy 1.36(0.97, 1.92).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The regular intake of specific plant foods may prevent overweight among children and adolescents.</p

Amphilimus- vs. zotarolimus-eluting stents in patients with diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease: the SUGAR trial

Aim: Patients with diabetes mellitus are at high risk of adverse events after percutaneous revascularization, with no differences in outcomes between most contemporary drug-eluting stents. The Cre8 EVO stent releases a formulation of sirolimus with an amphiphilic carrier from laser-dug wells, and has shown clinical benefits in diabetes. We aimed to compare Cre8 EVO stents to Resolute Onyx stents (a contemporary polymer-based zotarolimus-eluting stent) in patients with diabetes. Methods and results: We did an investigator-initiated, randomized, controlled, assessor-blinded trial at 23 sites in Spain. Eligible patients had diabetes and required percutaneous coronary intervention. A total of 1175 patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive Cre8 EVO or Resolute Onyx stents. The primary endpoint was target-lesion failure, defined as a composite of cardiac death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target-lesion revascularization at 1-year follow-up. The trial had a non-inferiority design with a 4% margin for the primary endpoint. A superiority analysis was planned if non-inferiority was confirmed. There were 106 primary events, 42 (7.2%) in the Cre8 EVO group and 64 (10.9%) in the Resolute Onyx group [hazard ratio (HR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44 to 0.96; pnon-inferiority <0.001; psuperiority = 0.030]. Among the secondary endpoints, Cre8 EVO stents had significantly lower rate than Resolute Onyx stents of target-vessel failure (7.5% vs 11.1%, HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.99; p = 0.042). Probable or definite stent thrombosis and all-cause death were not significantly different between groups. Conclusions: In patients with diabetes, Cre8 EVO stents were non-inferior to Resolute Onyx stents with regard to target-lesion failure composite outcome. An exploratory analysis for superiority at 1 year suggests that the Cre8 EVO stents might be superior to Resolute Onyx stents with regard to the same outcome

Efficacy of a brief multifactorial adherence-based intervention on reducing the blood pressure of patients with poor adherence: protocol for a randomized clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lowering of blood pressure by antihypertensive drugs reduces the risks of cardiovascular events, stroke, and total mortality. However, poor adherence to antihypertensive medications reduces their effectiveness and increases the risk of adverse events. In terms of relative risk reduction, an improvement in medication adherence could be as effective as the development of a new drug.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The proposed randomized controlled trial will include patients with a low adherence to medication and uncontrolled blood pressure. The intervention group will receive a multifactorial intervention during the first, third, and ninth months, to improve adherence. This intervention will include motivational interviews, pill reminders, family support, blood pressure self-recording, and simplification of the dosing regimen.</p> <p>Measurement</p> <p>The primary outcome is systolic blood pressure. The secondary outcomes are diastolic blood pressure, proportion of patients with adequately controlled blood pressure, and total cost.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The trial will evaluate the impact of a multifactorial adherence intervention in routine clinical practice. Ethical approval was given by the Ethical Committee on Human Research of Balearic islands, Spain (approval number IB 969/08 PI).</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current controlled trials ISRCTN21229328</p

Amphilimus- vs. zotarolimus-eluting stents in patients with diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease: the SUGAR trial.

AIM: Patients with diabetes mellitus are at high risk of adverse events after percutaneous revascularization, with no differences in outcomes between most contemporary drug-eluting stents. The Cre8 EVO stent releases a formulation of sirolimus with an amphiphilic carrier from laser-dug wells, and has shown clinical benefits in diabetes. We aimed to compare Cre8 EVO stents to Resolute Onyx stents (a contemporary polymer-based zotarolimus-eluting stent) in patients with diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We did an investigator-initiated, randomized, controlled, assessor-blinded trial at 23 sites in Spain. Eligible patients had diabetes and required percutaneous coronary intervention. A total of 1175 patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive Cre8 EVO or Resolute Onyx stents. The primary endpoint was target-lesion failure, defined as a composite of cardiac death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target-lesion revascularization at 1-year follow-up. The trial had a non-inferiority design with a 4% margin for the primary endpoint. A superiority analysis was planned if non-inferiority was confirmed. There were 106 primary events, 42 (7.2%) in the Cre8 EVO group and 64 (10.9%) in the Resolute Onyx group [hazard ratio (HR): 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44-0.96; Pnon-inferiority < 0.001; Psuperiority = 0.030]. Among the secondary endpoints, Cre8 EVO stents had significantly lower rate than Resolute Onyx stents of target-vessel failure (7.5% vs. 11.1%, HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46-0.99; P = 0.042). Probable or definite stent thrombosis and all-cause death were not significantly different between groups. CONCLUSION: In patients with diabetes, Cre8 EVO stents were non-inferior to Resolute Onyx stents with regard to target-lesion failure composite outcome. An exploratory analysis for superiority at 1 year suggests that the Cre8 EVO stents might be superior to Resolute Onyx stents with regard to the same outcome. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03321032

Environmental degradation - an undesirable output of the food system

The food system increasingly leads to environmental pollution and resource depletion, with impacts on all four environmental compartments, namely air, water, soil, and biota (living organisms). Using one or more examples to illustrate their most salient features, this chapter summarizes the environmental degradation caused by the ever-increasing acceleration of the food system, which in turn hampers further food production increases via feedback inhibition

Consumer Attitudes Towards Environmental Concerns of Meat Consumption: A Systematic Review

Meat consumption is a major contributor to global warming. Given the worldwide growing demand of meat, and the severe impact of meat production on the planet, reducing animal protein consumption is a matter of food security and public health. Changing consumer food behavior is a challenge. Taste preferences, culinary traditions and social norms factor into food choices. Since behavioral change cannot occur without the subject&#8217;s positive attitude based on reasons and motivations, a total of 34 papers on consumer attitudes and behavior towards meat consumption in relation to environmental concerns were examined. The results show that consumers aware of the meat impact on the planet, willing to stop or significantly reduce meat consumption for environmental reasons, and who have already changed their meat intake for ecological concerns are a small minority. However, environmental motives are already appealing significant proportions of Westerners to adopt certain meat curtailment strategies. Those who limit meat intake for environmental reasons are typically female, young, simply meat-reducer (not vegan/vegetarian), ecology-oriented, and would more likely live in Europe and Asia than in the U.S

Formative Research on Acceptability of Pearl Millet in Rural Eastern Kenya – A Pilot Study

This study explored the acceptability of pearl millet grain in rural Eastern Kenya. Ninety seven households accepted to plant pearl millet. These were the 37 who were part of the study and other 60 who were not part of the study. When requested to barter 2 kg pearl millet with maize, 33 (85%) out of 39bartered with maize, 2 (5%) with sorghum, 2 (5%) with chicken and 2 (5%) with money. The average score for skill attainment was 88% with 92.5% mothers readily gaining the skill to prepare and incorporate pearl millet into the daily diet of children. Children liked pearl millet when given with a low of 77.8% and a high of 93.2%. These findings suggest that policies or programs to promote cultivation, bartering, and consumption of pearl millet grain could be well acceptable in rural Eastern Kenya which could add to the nutritional content of local diets