Resource constraints in an epidemic: a goal programming and mathematical modelling framework for optimal resource shifting in South Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating consequences across the globe, and has led many governments into completely new decision making territory. Developing models which are capable of producing realistic projections of disease spread under extreme uncertainty has been paramount for supporting decision making by many levels of government. In South Africa, this role has been fulfilled by the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium's generalised Susceptible-ExposedInfectious-Removed compartmental model, known as the National COVID-19 Epi Model. This thesis adapted and contributed to the Model; its primary contribution has been to incorporate the feature that resources available to the health system are limited. Building capacity constraints into the Model allowed it to be used in the resource-scarce context of a pandemic. This thesis further designed and implemented a goal programming framework to shift ICU beds between districts intra-provincially in a way that aimed to minimise deaths caused by the non-availability of ICU beds. The results showed a 15% to 99% decrease in lives lost when ICU beds were shifted, depending on the scenario considered. Although there are limitations to the scope and assumptions of this thesis, it demonstrates that it is possible to combine mathematical modelling with optimisation in a way that may save lives through optimal resource allocation

A responsive architectural strategy for the generations of smart communities: an integrated tech hub in Welbedacht, Durban.

Masters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.The social and economic development of peri-urban communities are often overlooked by government contributing to a centralized development approach. This approach encourages migration to areas with more opportunity, preventing development of the underserved community. The uneven distribution of developmental resources and facilities leads to the manifestation of the assumption that opportunities to progress are centralized to certain areas of the city. This divide affects the communities’ morale to empower themselves within their locale thereby hindering their development and growth. In order for South Africa to foster a developmental state, it is vital to create initiatives in underserved peri-urban communities such as Welbedacht, that are more inclusive and empower individuals to control their own development. The theories presented in this research is an attempt to understand how architecture, responding to current issues in peri-urban communities, can act as a social agency for change to help enable, integrate and empower underserved peri-urban communities. Answering the research question, “What is the role of the built environment in enabling, integrating and empowering communities?” Place theories are applied to understanding people; linkage theories are applied in order to understand the needed infrastructure and theories of Socio-Ecological Resilience is applied in order to understand the design principles needed to achieve a holistically responsive architecture. Unilaterally connected, the theories will be applied so that connection between the theories provide a design strategy for sustainable development of smart peri-urban communities Explored in the research is architectural examples that encompass the principles identified through literature review, tectonic, technique and technology. Although the context of the precedent has similarities, no site is the same and therefore the community of Welbedacht is explored in detail (social, economic and environmental context). With an aim of sustainable development, the research focuses on a design outcome to encourage and facilitate active participation of citizens in the development of their communities

GAMBARAN TINGKAT PENGETAHUAN IBU BALITA TENTANG KMS DI DESA SUMUBER KECAMATAN PANCENG KABUPATEN GRESIK

Di Desa Sumurber kecamatan panceng hampir semua ibu balita mempunyai KMS, berdasarkan hasil study pendahuluan, peneliti melakukan tanya jawab langsung kepada 10 responden hasilnya 40% mengerti tentang KMS. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui gambaran tingkat pengetahuan ibu balita tentang KMS di Desa Sumurber Kecamatan Panceng Kabupaten Gresik. Jenis penelitian ini bersifat deskriptif. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua ibu yang mempunyai balita dan KMS sebesar 235 orang dengan sampel sebesar 91 responden yang diambil secara simple random sampling. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah pengetahuan ibu balita tentang KMS. Pengolahan data dengan editing, coding , scoring, tabulating. Pengumpulan data menggunakan kuisioner yang selanjutnya disajikan dalam tabel distribusi frekuensi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hampir setengah responden (29,67%) memiliki pengetahuan baik, sebagian kecil responden (17,58%) memiliki pengetahuan cukup dan sebagian besar responden (52,74%) memiliki pengetahuan kurang. Simpulan dari penelitian ini adalah sebagian besar dari responden mempunyai pengetahuan kurang tentang KMS. Untuk itu diharapkan bagi masyarakat lebih giat dan aktif dalam mencari informasi tentang KMS melalui sumber-sumber (media cetak dan elektronik) maupun melalui kegiatan penyuluhan oleh petugas kesehatan

Prevalence and determinants of susceptibility to cigarette smoking among school students in Pakistan: secondary analysis of Global Youth Tobacco Survey

Background: Susceptibility to smoke has been recognized as a strong predictor of smoking experimentation and taking up regular smoking habit. The identification of smoking susceptible individuals and its determinants is important in the efforts to reduce future smoking prevalence. The aims of this study are to estimate prevalence of susceptibility to smoke among adolescents, and identify factors associated with it.<p></p> Methods: Cross sectional data was obtained from Global Youth Tobacco Survey conducted in three cities of Pakistan in year 2004. Study population consisted of students in grades, 8th, 9th, and 10th; aged 13 to 15 years. Secondary analysis using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the associations between smoking susceptibility and co-variates. Descriptive statistics were reported in proportions, and adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval were used to report logistic regression analyses.<p></p> Results: Approximately 12% of nonsmoking students were found susceptible to smoking. Students, who were females (OR = 1.53, 95% CI [1.24-1.89]); whose parents (OR = 1.64, 95% CI [1.35-1.99]); or close friend smoked (OR = 2.77, 95% CI [2.27- 3.40]) were more susceptible to cigarette smoking. Students who had good knowledge about harmful effects of smoking (OR = 0.54, 95% CI [0.43-0.69]); and had access to anti-smoking media (OR = 0.73, 95% CI [0.59-0.89]) were less likely to be susceptible to smoking.<p></p> Conclusion: Students who were females, had smoking parents, friends or exposure to newspaper/magazines cigarette marketing, were more susceptible to cigarette smoking among Pakistani adolescents. While knowledge of harmful effects of smoking and access to anti-smoking media served as protective factors against susceptibility to smoking.<p></p&gt

Nutritional and lifestyle risk behaviors and their association with mental health and violence among Pakistani adolescents: results from the National Survey of 4583 individuals

Background: Unhealthy behaviors are associated with mental health problems and violence in adolescents, yet their combined association has been understudied. Using the Global School Health Survey, this study examined the association between combined unhealthy behaviors (including fast food, soft drink, smoking, other tobacco products and physical inactivity) and anxiety, suicidal ideation and involvement in physical fight among Pakistani adolescents. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global School Health Survey conducted in Pakistan (2009). The study population consisted of school going adolescents aged 13 to 15 years. Association of combined unhealthy behaviors with anxiety, suicidal ideation and involvement in physical fight were studied through secondary analysis. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis by complex sample method, accounting for cluster sampling technique used for data collection. Results: Of the total 4583 students, weighted percentage and unweighted count for one, two, three and four or more unhealthy behaviors was 39.4% (n = 1770), 22.1% (n = 963), 5.9% (n = 274) and 1.2% (n = 62) respectively. The weighted prevalence for anxiety, suicidal ideation and involvement in physical fight were 8.4%, 7.3% and 37.4% respectively. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjustment showed that students who had four or more unhealthy behaviors had higher odds of; being anxious (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.31-4.59, p value 0.004), suicide ideation (OR 4.56, 95% CI 2.58-8.07, p value &lt;0.001) and being involved in physical fight (OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.63–6.08, p value &lt;0.001) as compared to those who had not adopted any unhealthy behaviors. Conclusions: This study suggests that the co-occurrence of unhealthy behaviors is associated with anxiety, suicidal ideation and physical fight among adolescents. These findings should be considered when developing interventions to combat detrimental outcomes of unhealthy behaviors during adolescence.</p

MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING (PjBL) DENGAN AUGMENTED REALITY (AR) UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KREATIVITAS SISWA DIGITAL NATIVES

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui peningkatan hasil belajar kreativitas peserta didik setelah implementasimodel pembelajaran Project Based Learning (PjBL) dikombinasikan dengan Augmented Reality (AR). Subjek dalam penelitian ini adalah peserta didik kelas V di SD Negeri 2 Bulusan. Pendekatan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan statistik deskriptif dimana data yang diperoleh kemudian diolah menggunakan metode statistik dan hasilnya dideskripsikan kembali. Jenis dari penelitian ini adalah PTK (Penelitian Tindakan Kelas). Instrumen pengumpulan data yang digunakan yaitu lembar observasi kreativitas siswa dan hasil prestasi belajar dalam bentuk hasil pre-test dan post-test. Berdasarkan hasil analisis datamenunjukkan bahwa terjadinya peningkatan hasil belajar kreativitas peserta didik dimana terdapat 6 peserta didik mendapat nilai di bawah KKM pada siklus I (fase 1) saat mengerjakan pre-test kemudian di siklus II (fase 2) hanya  terdapat 2 peserta didik mendapat nilai di bawah KKM pada saat mengerjakan post-test. Rata-rata awal yang semula pada fase 1 32,25 menjadi 61pada fase 2.

The Vertical variations of Atmospheric Methane (CH4) concentrations over selected cities in Iraq based on AIRS data

يوفر مسبار الأشعة تحت الحمراء (AIRS) المحمول على القمر الصناعي EOS / Aqua قياسات متنوعة لتوزيع الميثان (CH4) عند مستويات ضغط مختلفة في الغلاف الجوي للارض. يركز هذا البحث على تحليل الاختلافات الرأسية لبيانات السلاسل الزمنية لـ (CH4) نسبة الخلط الحجمي (VMR) عند أربعة مستويات ضغط قياسية SPL (925 و 850 و 600 و 300 hPa)  في طبقة التروبوسفير فوق ست مدن في العراق من كانون الثاني 2003 إلى أيلول 2016.  تظهر نتائج تحليل المتوسط الشهري لبيانات السلاسل الزمنية لـ CH4VMR زيادة كبيرة بين عامي 2003 و 2016 ,وخاصة بين 2009 و2016؛ كانت القيم الادنى في عام 2003 بينما القيم الاعلى كانت في عام 2016. التوزيع الرأسي لـ (CH4) كان مرتفعًا نسبيًا في المدن الواقعة في شمال العراق (السليمانية والموصل) أكثر من المدن الاخرى، خاصة تلك التي في غرب العراق (الرطبة والنجف). أعلى متوسط شهري لـ CH4VMR والانحراف المعياري كان في السليمانية (1871± 21.92 ) ppbv عند 925 hPa ، بينما اقل متوسط كان في الرطبة (1812.81±37.3) ppbvعند 300 hPa . الموصل لديها ثاني أعلى متوسط وانحراف معياري بعد السليمانية ، خاصة في المستويات الدنيا SPL (925 و 850hPa ) من التروبوسفير أكثر من بقية المدن المختارة. يظهر التباين الموسمي لـ CH4VMR الشهري ، المتوسط من 2003 إلى 2016 ، قيمًا مرتفعة بين كانون الثاني و آب مع ذروة بين آب وأيلول وينخفض بشكل كبير بين تشرين الاول و كانون الاول مع زيادة طفيفة في تشرين الثاني. يُظهر تحليل الاتجاه طويل المدى لـ CH4VMR الشهري لكل SPL (925 ، 850 ، 600 و 300 ) hPa فوق المدن الست قيمًا موجبة بمتوسط معدلات نمو لكل SPL تساوي (2.9٪ و 3.1٪ و 3.6٪ و 3.9٪ ) ، على التوالي. تشير هذه النتائج إلى أن قياسات الأقمار الصناعية كانت فعالة في تحديد مقدار زيادة CH4 فوق العراق والتي قد تساهم في الزيادة العالمية لـ CH4 في الغلاف الجوي للأرض.The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on EOS/Aqua satellite provides diverse measurements of Methane (CH4) distribution at different pressure levels in the Earth's atmosphere. The focus of this research is to analyze the vertical variations of (CH4) volume mixing ratio (VMR) time-series data at four Standard pressure levels SPL (925, 850, 600, and 300 hPa) in the troposphere above six cities in Iraq from January 2003 to September 2016. The analysis results of monthly average CH4VMR time-series data show a significant increase between 2003 and 2016, especially from 2009 to 2016; the minimum values of CH4 were in 2003 while the maximum values were in 2016. The vertical distribution of CH4 was relatively high in the cities located in the north of Iraq (Sulaymaniyah and Mosul) more than other cities, especially these in western Iraq (Rutba and Najaf). The highest monthly mean of CH4VMR and standard deviation (SD) was in Sulaymaniyah (1871.11±21.92) ppbv at 925 hPa, while the lowest was in Rutba (1812.81±37.3) ppbv at 300 hPa. Mosul has the second-highest mean and SD next to Sulaymaniyah, especially at the lower levels SPL (925 and 850 hPa) of troposphere more than the rest of selected cities. The seasonal variation of monthly CH4VMR, averaged from 2003 to 2016, shows high values between January and August with a peak between August and September and it declines significantly between October and December with a slight increase in November. Long term trend analysis of monthly CH4VMR at each SPL (925, 850, 600, and 300) hPa above the six cities shows positive values with average growth rates for each SPL equal to (2.9 %, 3.1%, 3.6 %, and 3.9%), respectively. These results indicate that satellite measurements were effective in determining the magnitude of increased CH4 over Iraq that may contribute to the global increase of CH4 in the earth’s Atmosphere

Extraction and Determination of Oxymatrine Pesticide in Environmental Sample and in its Formulation using High-Performance Liquid Chromatography

The quinolizindine alkaloid compound, oxymatrine pesticide, was analysis in the river water samples collected from different agriculture areas in the Iraqi city of Kerbala and also in its formulation using developed reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography method. Acetonitrile:methanol (60:40 v/v) was chosen as mobile phase at pH (7.0), flow rate 0.5 mL/min, and 20 µL as volume injection. Modified ecological-friendly method, dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction, was used for the extraction of oxymatrine from water samples. Linearity study was constructed from 0.1 to 70 μg/mL at λmax 205 nm. The limit of detection and limit of quantification were 0.025 and 0.082 μg/mL, respectively, and the relative standard deviation (RSD) % was 0.518%. Three spiked levels of concentration (20.0, 40.0, and 70.0 μg/mL) were used for the validation method. The percentage recovery for the three spiked samples was ranged between 98.743 and 99.432 and the RSD% was between 0.051 and 0.202%, the formulation studies of oxymatrine between 99.487 and 99.798, and the RSD% was ranged from 0.045 to 0.057%. The developed method can be used accurately and selectively for the determination of oxymatrine in environmental samples and in the formulation

The effects of written corrective feedback using wikis among ESL learners

Wikis are being used more and more frequently in language learning situations. Their ease of access and usability has made them a popular choice amongst language teachers; especially in the teaching of writing. However, the full potential of wikis outside collaborative writing has yet to be explored. This study aims to focus on the potentials of providing feedback to written work using the platform of wikis. In this study, 14 students were asked to provide feedback and comments on their peers’ essays on a wiki platform using a correction checklist provided to them. These students were first asked to write an essay, upload it onto the wiki platform, and then finally comment on the written texts of their peers; for a total of nine times. At the end of the study, the students’ pre and post-test scores were compared to see whether their written accuracy had improved. A pairedsample t-test was used to analyse the students’ pre and post-test scores and the results showed a significant improvement in Jacob’s (1981) ESL components of content, organization, language use and vocabulary; however, the study did not yield the same results for the students’ punctuation use. In being provided comments by peers and their teacher through the platform of wikis, the students’ enthusiasm increased when put through the feedback; therefore, their focus heightened on writing a more accurate version of their previous essay. This in turn, increased the overall quality of their final essay

Intervensi Kinesio Taping Dan Bobath Exercises Terhadap Peningkatan Keseimbangan Berdiri Dan Penurunan Spastisitas Tungkai Pasien Cerebral Palsy Di Sekolah Luar Biasa Dan Yayasan Pendidikan Anak Cacat Makassar

Cerebal Palsy is a non progressive neuromuscular dysfunction in the form of muscle tone abnormalities which results in postural tone disorders in the form of spasticity, especially the legs, coordination disorders, sitting and standing balance, road disturbances that cause sufferers with daily functional impairment. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of Kinesio taping and Bobath exercises for increasing the ability to balance standing and decrease the spasticity of the patient's limbs. This type of research is a pre-experiment with one group pre-test-post test design. Held at the Special School and the Makassar Disability Children Education Foundation from July to October 2019, with a sample of 49 cerebral palsy patients. Standing balance data were obtained using a Pediatric balance scale and limb spasticity data were obtained using the Asworth scale. Paired sample T Test Results obtained p value = 0.006 for spasticity and standing balance with p = 0.000 after being given Kinesio taping and bobath exercises. The conclusion of the study was that kinesio taping and bobath exercises had no significant effect on leg spasticity and there was a significant effect on the sitting balance of cerebral palsy patients. It is hoped that these two methods can be used in cerebral palsy patients who experience impaired sitting balance. Abstrak Cerebal Palsy adalah kelainan fungsi neuromuscular non progresif berupa abnormalitas tonus otot yang mengakibatkan gangguan tonus postural berupa spastisitas terutama tungkai, gangguan koordinasi, keseimbangan duduk dan berdiri, gangguan jalan yang menyebabkan penderita terganggu fungsionalnya sehari-hari. Tujuan penelitian ini mengetahui pengaruh Kinesio taping dan Bobath exercises terhadap peningkatan kemampuan keseimbangan berdiri dan penurunan spastisitas tungkai&nbsp;&nbsp; pasien.&nbsp; Jenis penelitian ini adalah pre - experiment dengan desain pretest – post test one group. Dilaksanakan di Sekolah luar Biasa dan Yayasan Pendidikan Anak Cacat Makassar mulai bulan JulisampaiOktober2019, dengan sampel penelitian sebanyak 49 pasien cerebral palsy. Data keseimbangan berdiri di peroleh menggunakan Pediatric balance scale dan data spastisitas tungkai diperoleh menggunakan skala asworth. Hasil Uji Paired sample T Test diperoleh nilai p = 0.006 untuk spastisitas dan keseimbangan berdiri dengan p = 0.000 setelah diberikan Kinesio taping dan bobath exercises. Kesimpulan penelitian bahwa kinesio taping dan bobath exercises tidak terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan pada spastititas tungkai dan terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap keseimbangan duduk pasien cerebral palsy. Dengan demikian diharapkan kedua metode ini dapat digunakan pada pasien cerebral palsy yang mengalami gangguan keseimbangan berdiri.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp