Perancangan Rute Distribusi Beras Sejahtera Menggunakan Algoritma Ant Colony Optimization (Studi Kasus di BULOG Kabupaten Semarang

Distribution activity has a very important role in the supply chain. Distribution is an activity to send the goods or products from the supplier or manufacturer to the consumer. PERUM BULOG in Semarang district is responsible for distributing beras sejahtera from warehouses to distribution points spread over 19 districts. The distribution process that PERUM BULOG Semarang district apllied to distribute beras sejahtera takes enormous costs and time. This is due to the lack of distribution design from PERUM BULOG Semarang district so the distribution distance is not optimal and ineffective use of vehicles. This research aims to design beras sejahtera distribution route by optimizing the distance to be traversed and also the use of vehicles using Ant Colony Optimization algorithms. Ant Colony Optimization is a metaheuristic optimization method which adopts the behavior of ant colonies in taking food to the nest. Ant Colony Optimization optimize the distance between points distribution one with the other distribution points based on the intensity of the pheromone that exist at each distribution point. From the old method that applied PERUM BULOG Subdivre Semarang requires 1100.4 km distance, 24 trucks and distribution costs Rp . 58,142,204.00 . From Ant Colony Optimization algorithm requires a distance of 966.2 km, 12 trucks and distribution costs needed is Rp . 30,939,232.00 . By applying these Ant colony optimization algorithm results obtained distance reduction of 12% , the cost savings of 47% , and savings of 50% use of the truck to a distribution proces

Mortality and Ingrowth Pattern of Dipterocarps in Forest Recovery in East Kalimantan

In primary and logged-over natural forest, the stand conditions such as stand structure, mortality and ingrowth rates will vary according to the species characteristic. The study objective was to determine mortality and ingrowth/recruitment rates to formulate biometric characteristic variability of dipterocarps forest in logged-over forests based on time series data. The study site was located in Labanan, East Kalimantan Province. Permanent measurement plots within logged-over forest were located to represent threedifferent logging techniques, i.e., (a)reduced impact logging with limit diameter 50 cm (RIL 50), (b) RIL 60, (c) conventional logging and (d) primary forest as control. Total plot permanent area about 48 ha that measured 2 years periodically along 17 years after logging. Data analysis of stands were divided into two major groups, i.e., Dipterocarps and non Dipterocarps. The mortality rates on logged forest were 2.5-29.3% ha-1 2yr-1 then very closed to primary forest after the 5th year after logging. While the ingrowth rate in logged forest were 1.3 – 21.3% ha-1 2yr-1 that have higher value than the primary forest along 17 years. The mortality and ingrowth rates fluctuation of Dipterocarps species group having different pattern with non Dipterocarps

The tropical managed forests observatory: a research network addressing the future of tropical logged forests.

While attention on logging in the tropics has been increasing, studies on the long-term effects of silviculture on forest dynamics and ecology remain scare and spatially limited. Indeed, most of our knowledge on tropical forests arises from studies carried out in undisturbed tropical forests. This biasis problematic given that logged and disturbed tropical forests are now covering a larger area thantheso-alled primary forests. A new network of permanent sample plots in logged forests, the Tropical managed Forests Observatory (TmFO), aims to ?ll this gap by providing unprecedented opportunities to examine long-term data on the resilience of logged tropical forests at regional and global scales. TmFO currently includes 24 experimental sites distributed across three tropical regions, with a total of 490 permanent plots and 921 ha of forest inventories

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Pola Kerapatan Dan Keragaman Tegakan Hutan Dipterokarpa Sekunder (Pattern of Density and Diversity of Secondary Dipterocarps Forest Stand)

Penilaian pemulihan hutan sekunder dipterokarpa mempunyai parameter penting, yaitu kerapatan tegakan dan keragaman komposisi jenis hutan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kecenderungan pola Perubahan kerapatan dan keragaman tegakan pada hutan alam dipterokarpa sekunder berdasarkan variasi umur tebangan sebagai proyeksi tingkat pemulihan (recovery) alami yang terjadi pada hutan alam produksi. Penelitian dilaksanakan di IUPHHK Hutan Alam PT Gunung Gajah Abadi, Wahau, Kalimantan Timur. Periode pengumpulan data pada tahun 2016-2019 dengan pembuatan plot sampling temporer sebanyak 11 plot (seluas 11 ha) pada tujuh variasi umur tebangan. Parameter kerapatan (jumlah pohon dan bidang dasar per satuan luas) dan keragaman (jumlah jenis, indeks keanekaragaman, kelimpahan jenis dan indeks kemerataan jenis) tegakan hutan sekunder dipterokarpa akan bervariasi sepanjang umur tebangan. Bentuk hubungan parameter kerapatan tegakan, indeks kelimpahan dan indeks kemerataan jenis adalah berbentuk regresi logaritma, sedangkan untuk parameter bidang dasar tegakan, jumlah dan indeks keanekaragaman jenis berbentuk regresi polynomial atau kuadratik. Umur tegakan setelah penebangan merupakan faktor yang memengaruhi cukup besar terhadap komposisi jumlah jenis, tetapi tidak cukup besar untuk parameter kerapatan dan keragaman tegakan lainnya

The Valuation of Thinning Effectivity Based on Increment Respond of Natural Forest Log Over Area

Efforts to increase the natural forest productivity was conducted using several ways one of which is through thinning but the effectiveness is not well known yet. The research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the application of thinning techniques to logged-over natural forests based on the response of the stand increment. The study design was an 11-year-old logged-over natural forest stand that was carried out systematic thinning, thinning based on built trees and without treatment with a total area of 24 ha. Data collection is done by census inventory of trees with limit diameter of 10 cm per 2 years periodically. Stand conditions in the research plot varied in value range of density (419-510 stems ha-1) and the base plane (22.66-28.20 m2.ha-1) which were not too wide. The results of the calculation of the base plan of the stand shows that systematic thinning yields a larger stand increment (0.78-1.95 m2.ha-1.2th-1) compared to thinning based on built trees and without treatment. Thinning gives more responsive results for the Dipterocarp species group (the increment value is almost twice to normal) compared to non Dipterocarp. Based on the regression analysis, function of time period has correlation between 25-33% to the basal area increment. A systematic thinning technique approach that is more appropriate for increasing stand productivity