Ice streaming in the Laurentide Ice Sheet: A first comparison between data-calibrated numerical model output and geological evidence

[1] Despite the importance of rapidly-flowing ice streams to ice sheet mass balance, their incorporation into numerical ice sheet models is a major scientific challenge. This introduces large uncertainties in model output and inhibits a more complete understanding of the role of ice streams in overall ice sheet stability. Recent computational advances have enabled more realistic representations of ice streaming but few studies have attempted to compare model output against known locations of ice streams. This paper compares predictions of ice streaming derived from a large ensemble analysis of a Glacial Systems Model of the Laurentide Ice Sheet against independent geological evidence compiled from previously published studies. Although the precise dating of paleo-ice stream locations is problematic, our analysis includes comparisons at six different time-steps (18 to 10 cal ka BP) during deglaciation. Results indicate that the model is successful in predicting all of the major marine-terminating ice streams but there is mixed success in simulating terrestrial ice streams in the right place and at the right time, which is vital in guiding future model development. The model also reveals that whilst some ice streams persist throughout deglaciation the focus of mass loss associated with ice streaming switches through time with dynamic changes in ice stream catchments and tributaries. This implies that major changes in ice stream activity are to be expected in a deglaciating ice sheet, with important implications for contemporary ice sheet dynamics

A Glacial Geomorphological Map of Victoria Island, Canadian Arctic

Victoria Island lies at the north-western extremity of the region covered by the vast North American Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. This area is significant because it linked the interior of the LIS to the Arctic Ocean, probably via a number of ice streams. Victoria Island, however, exhibits a remarkably complex glacial landscape, with several successive generations of ice flow indicators superimposed on top of each other and often at abrupt (90°) angles. This complexity represents a major challenge to those attempting to produce a detailed reconstruction of the glacial history of the region. This paper presents a map of the glacial geomorphology of Victoria Island. The map is based on analysis of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+) satellite imagery and contains over 58,000 individual glacial features which include: glacial lineations, moraines (terminal, lateral, subglacial shear margin), hummocky moraine, ribbed moraine, eskers, glaciofluvial deposits, large meltwater channels, and raised shorelines. The glacial features reveal marked changes in ice flow direction and vigour over time. Moreover, the glacial geomorphology indicates a non-steady withdrawal of ice during deglaciation, with rapidly flowing ice streams focussed into the inter-island troughs and several successively younger flow patterns superimposed on older ones. It is hoped that detailed analysis of this map will lead to an improved reconstruction of the glacial history of this area which will provide other important insights, for example, with respect to the interactions between ice streaming, deglaciation and Arctic Ocean meltwater events

Evolution of the Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (115 ka to 25 ka)

The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the largest global ice mass to grow and decay during the last glacial cycle (~115 ka to ~10 ka). Despite its importance for driving major changes in global mean sea level, long-term landscape evolution, and atmospheric circulation patterns, the history of the Laurentide (and neighbouring Innuitian) Ice Sheet is poorly constrained owing to sporadic preservation of stratigraphic records prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~25 ka) and a case-study approach to the dating of available evidence. Here, we synthesize available geochronological data from the glaciated region, together with published stratigraphic and geomorphological data, as well as numerical modelling output, to derive 19 hypothesised reconstructions of the Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets from 115 ka to 25 ka at 5-kyr intervals, with uncertainties quantified to include best, minimum, and maximum ice extent estimates at each time-step. Our work suggests that, between 115 ka and 25 ka, some areas of North America experienced multiple cycles of rapid ice sheet growth and decay, while others remained largely ice-free, and others were continuously glaciated. Key findings include: (i) the growth and recession of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from 115 ka through 80 ka; (ii) significant build-up of ice to almost LGM extent at ~60 ka; (iii) a potentially dramatic reduction in North American ice at ~45 ka; (iv) a rapid expansion of the Labrador Dome at ~38 ka; and (v) gradual growth toward the LGM starting at ~35 ka. Some reconstructions are only loosely constrained and are therefore speculative (especially prior to 45 ka). Nevertheless, this work represents our most up-to-date understanding of the build-up of the Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the last glacial cycle to the LGM based on the available evidence. We consider these ice configurations as a series of testable hypotheses for future work to address and refine. These results are important for use across a range of disciplines including ice sheet modelling, palaeoclimatology and archaeology and are available digitally

Simultaneous disintegration of outlet glaciers in Porpoise Bay (Wilkes Land), East Antarctica, driven by sea ice break-up

The floating ice shelves and glacier tongues which fringe the Antarctic continent are important because they help buttress ice flow from the ice sheet interior. Dynamic feedbacks associated with glacier calving have the potential to reduce buttressing and subsequently increase ice flow into the ocean. However, there are few high temporal resolution studies on glacier calving, especially in East Antarctica. Here we use remote sensing to investigate monthly glacier terminus change across six marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Porpoise Bay (−76° S, 128° E), Wilkes Land (East Antarctica), between November 2002 and March 2012. This reveals a large simultaneous calving event in January 2007, resulting in a total of ~ 2900 km2 of ice being removed from glacier tongues. Our observations suggest that sea-ice must be removed from glacier termini for any form of calving to take place, and we link this major calving event to a rapid break-up of the multi-year sea-ice which usually occupies Porpoise Bay. Using sea-ice concentrations as a proxy for glacier calving, and by analysing available satellite imagery stretching back to 1963, we reconstruct the long-term calving activity of the largest glacier in Porpoise Bay: Holmes (West) Glacier. This reveals that its present-day velocity (~ 1450 m a−1) is approximately 50 % faster than between 1963 and 1973 (~ 900 m a−1). We also observed the start of a large calving event in Porpoise Bay in March 2016 that is consistent with our reconstructions of the periodicity of major calving events. These results highlight the importance of sea-ice in modulating outlet glacier calving and velocity in East Antarctica

Velocity increases at Cook Glacier, East Antarctica linked to ice shelf loss and a subglacial flood event

Cook Glacier drains a large proportion of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica, a region thought to be vulnerable to marine ice sheet instability and with potential to make a significant contribution to sea level. Despite its importance, there have been very few observations of its longer-term behaviour (e.g. of velocity or changes at its ice front). Here we use a variety of satellite imagery to produce a time series of ice front position change from 1947 to 2017 and ice velocity from 1973 to 2017. Cook Glacier has two distinct outlets (termed East and West), and we observe the near-complete loss of the Cook West Ice Shelf at some time between 1973 and 1989. This was associated with a doubling of the velocity of Cook West Glacier, which may also be linked to previously published reports of inland thinning. The loss of the Cook West Ice Shelf is surprising given that the present-day ocean climate conditions in the region are not typically associated with catastrophic ice shelf loss. However, we speculate that a more intense ocean climate forcing in the mid-20th century may have been important in forcing its collapse. Since the loss of the Cook West Ice Shelf, the presence of landfast sea ice and mélange in the newly formed embayment appears to be important in stabilizing the glacier front and enabling periodic advances. We also show that the last calving event at the larger Cook East Ice Shelf resulted in the retreat of its ice front into a dynamically important portion of the ice shelf and observe a short-lived increase in velocity of Cook East between 2006 and 2007, which we link to the drainage of subglacial Lake Cook. Taken together, these observations suggest that the velocity, and hence discharge, of Cook Glacier is highly sensitive to changes at its terminus, but a more detailed process-based analysis of this potentially vulnerable region requires further oceanic and bathymetric data

Recent retreat of major outlet glaciers on Novaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic, influenced by fjord geometry and sea-ice conditions

Substantial ice loss has occurred in the Russian High Arctic during the past decade, predominantly on Novaya Zemlya, yet the region has been studied relatively little. Consequently, the factors forcing mass loss and the relative contribution of ice dynamics versus surface melt are poorly understood. Here we evaluate the influence of atmospheric/oceanic forcing and variations in fjord width on the behaviour of 38 glaciers on the northern ice cap, Novaya Zemlya. We compare retreat rates on land- versus marine-terminating outlets and on the Kara versus Barents Sea coasts. Between 1992 and 2010, 90% of the study glaciers retreated and retreat rates were an order of magnitude higher for marine-terminating outlets (52.1 m a–1) than for land-terminating glaciers (4.8 m a–1). We identify a post-2000 acceleration in marine-terminating glacier retreat, which corresponded closely to changes in sea-ice concentrations. Retreat rates were higher on the Barents Sea coast, which we partly attribute to lower sea-ice concentrations, but varied dramatically between individual glaciers. We use empirical data to categorize changes in along-flow fjord width, and demonstrate a significant relationship between fjord width variability and retreat rate. Results suggest that variations in fjord width exert a major influence on glacier retreat

Ice streams in the Laurentide Ice Sheet: identification, characteristics and comparison to modern ice sheets

This paper presents a comprehensive review and synthesis of ice streams in the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) based on a new mapping inventory that includes previously hypothesised ice streams and includes a concerted effort to search for others from across the entire ice sheet bed. The inventory includes 117 ice streams, which have been identified based on a variety of evidence including their bedform imprint, large-scale geomorphology/topography, till properties, and ice rafted debris in ocean sediment records. Despite uncertainty in identifying ice streams in hard bedrock areas, it is unlikely that any major ice streams have been missed. During the Last Glacial Maximum, Laurentide ice streams formed a drainage pattern that bears close resemblance to the present day velocity patterns in modern ice sheets. Large ice streams had extensive onset zones and were fed by multiple tributaries and, where ice drained through regions of high relief, the spacing of ice streams shows a degree of spatial self-organisation which has hitherto not been recognised. Topography exerted a primary control on the location of ice streams, but there were large areas along the western and southern margin of the ice sheet where the bed was composed of weaker sedimentary bedrock, and where networks of ice streams switched direction repeatedly and probably over short time scales. As the ice sheet retreated onto its low relief interior, several ice streams show no correspondence with topography or underlying geology, perhaps facilitated by localised build-up of pressurised subglacial meltwater. They differed from most other ice stream tracks in having much lower length-to-width ratios and have no modern analogues. There have been very few attempts to date the initiation and cessation of ice streams, but it is clear that ice streams switched on and off during deglaciation, rather than maintaining the same trajectory as the ice margin retreated. We provide a first order estimate of changes in ice stream activity during deglaciation and show that around 30% of the margin was drained by ice streams at the LGM (similar to that for present day Antarctic ice sheets), but this decreases to 15% and 12% at 12 cal ka BP and 10 cal ka BP, respectively. The extent to which these changes in the ice stream drainage network represent a simple and predictable readjustment to a changing mass balance driven by climate, or internal ice dynamical feedbacks unrelated to climate (or both) is largely unknown and represents a key area for future work to address

Late-20th-century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia

Glaciers occupy an area of ∼1600 km2 in the Caucasus Mountains. There is widespread evidence of retreat since the Little Ice Age, but an up-to-date regional assessment of glacier change is lacking. In this paper, satellite imagery (Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) is used to obtain the terminus position of 113 glaciers in the central Caucasus in 1985 and 2000, using a manual delineation process based on a false-colour composite (bands 5, 4, 3). Measurements reveal that 94% of the glaciers have retreated, 4% exhibited no overall change and 2% advanced. The mean retreat rate equates to ∼8 m a−1, and maximum retreat rates approach ∼38 m a−1. The largest (>10 km2) glaciers retreated twice as much (∼12 m a−1) as the smallest (<1 km2) glaciers (∼6 m a−1), and glaciers at lower elevations generally retreated greater distances. Supraglacial debris cover has increased in association with glacier retreat, and the surface area of bare ice has reduced by ∼10% between 1985 and 2000. Results are compared to declassified Corona imagery from the 1960s and 1970s and detailed field measurements and mass-balance data for Djankuat glacier, central Caucasus. It is concluded that the decrease in glacier area appears to be primarily driven by increasing temperatures since the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s. Continued retreat could lead to considerable changes in glacier runoff, with implications for regional water resources

Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change

The Kodar mountains in eastern Siberia accommodate 30 small, cold-based glaciers with a combined surface area previously estimated at 19 km2. Very little is known about these glaciers, which were first surveyed in the late 1950s. In this paper, we use terrestrial photogrammetry to calculate changes in the surface area, elevation, volume and geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier between 1979 and 2007 and relate these to meteorological data from nearby Chara weather station (1938–2007). The glacier surface area declined by 20 6.9% and the surface lowered by an average of 20 1.8 m (mean thinning 0.71 m a–1), resulting in a strongly negative cumulative and average mass balance of –18 1.6 m w. e. and –640 60 mm w. e. a–1, respectively. The July–August air temperature increased at a rate of 0.0368 C a–1 between 1979 and 2007, and the 1980–2007 period was on average 18 C warmer than 1938–79. In comparison to the 1961–90 period, regional climate projections for the A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using the PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase by 2.6–4.7°C and 4.9–6.2°C, respectively, during the 2071–2100 period. The annual total of solid precipitation will increase by 20% under the B2 scenario but is projected to decline by 3% under the A2 scenario. Azarova glacier exhibits high sensitivity to climatic warming due to its low elevation and exposure to comparatively high summer temperatures. Further summer warming and a decline in solid precipitation projected under the A2 scenario will force Azarova glacier to retreat further, but the impact of an increase in solid precipitation projected under the B2 scenario is more uncertain and requires further investigation before a more conclusive prediction can be made