Would a Legal Minimum Wage Reduce Poverty?: A Microsimulation Study for Germany

In view of rising wage inequality and increasing poverty, the introduction of a legal minimum wage has recently become an important policy issue in Germany. We analyze the distributional effects of the introduction of a nationwide legal minimum wage of EUR 7.5 per hour on the basis of a microsimulation model which accounts for the complex interactions between individual wages, the tax-benefit system and net household incomes. Simulation results show that the minimum wage would be ratherineffective in reducing poverty, even if it led to a substantial increase in hourly wages at the bottom of the wage distribution and had no negative employment effects. The ineffectiveness of a minimum wage in Germany is mainly due to the existing system of meanstested income support.minimum wage, wage distribution, working poor, poverty reduction, microsimulation

Imposed Benefit Sanctions and the Unemployment-to-Employment Transition: The German Experience

We analyze the effect of imposed benefit sanctions on the unemployment-to-employment transition of unemployed people entitled to unemployment compensation on the basis of register data from the German Federal Employment Agency. We combine propensity score matching with a discrete-time hazard rate model which accounts for the dynamic nature of the treatment. We find positive short- and long-term effects of benefit sanctions which are robust for men and women in East and West Germany. The effects diminish with the elapsed unemployment duration until a sanction is imposed. The limited use of benefit sanctions can thus be an effective activation tool if they take place not too late in an individual's unemployment spell.benefit sanctions, unemployment transitions, German labor market reform, ex-post evaluation, propensity score matching, hazard rate model, unobserved heterogeneity

Labor market and income effects of a legal minimum wage in Germany

In view of rising wage and income inequality, the introduction of a legal minimum wage has recently become an important policy issue in Germany. We analyze the distributional effects of a nationwide legal minimum wage of 7.50 € per hour on the basis of a microsimulation model which accounts for the complex interactions between individual wages, the tax-benefit system and net household incomes, also taking into account potential employment effects as well as indirect effects on consumption. Simulation results show that the minimum wage would be rather ineffective in raising net household incomes and reducing income inequality, even if it led to a substantial increase in hourly wages at the bottom of the wage distribution. The ineffectiveness of a minimum wage in Germany is mainly due to the existing system of means-tested income support and the position of minimum wage earners in the income distribution. --minimum wage,wage distribution,employment effects,income distribution,inequality,microsimulation

Would a Legal Minimum Wage Reduce Poverty? A Microsimulation Study for Germany

In view of rising wage inequality and increasing poverty, the introduction of a legal minimum wage has recently become an important policy issue in Germany. We analyze the distributional effects of the introduction of a nationwide legal minimum wage of € 7.5 per hour on the basis of a microsimulation model which accounts for the complex interactions between individual wages, the tax-benefit system and net household incomes. Simulation results show that the minimum wage would be rather ineffective in reducing poverty, even if it led to a substantial increase in hourly wages at the bottom of the wage distribution and had no negative employment effects. The ineffectiveness of a minimum wage in Germany is mainly due to the existing system of means-tested income support.minimum wage, wage distribution, working poor, poverty reduction, micro-simulation

Labor Market and Income Effects of a Legal Minimum Wage in Germany

In view of rising wage and income inequality, the introduction of a legal minimum wage has recently become an important policy issue in Germany. We analyze the distributional effects of a nationwide legal minimum wage of 7.50 € per hour on the basis of a microsimulation model which accounts for the complex interactions between individual wages, the tax-benefit system and net household incomes, also taking into account potential employment effects as well as indirect effects on consumption. Simulation results show that the minimum wage would be rather ineffective in raising net household incomes and reducing income inequality, even if it led to a substantial increase in hourly wages at the bottom of the wage distribution. The ineffectiveness of a minimum wage in Germany is mainly due to the existing system of means-tested income support and the position of minimum wage earners in the income distribution.minimum wage, wage distribution, employment effects, income distribution, inequality, microsimulation

Labor Market and Income Effects of a Legal Minimum Wage in Germany

In view of rising wage and income inequality, the introduction of a legal minimum wage has recently become an important policy issue in Germany. We analyze the distributional effects of a nationwide legal minimum wage of 7.50 EUR per hour on the basis of a microsimulation model which accounts for the complex interactions between individual wages, the tax-benefit system and net household incomes, also taking into account potential employment effects as well as indirect effects on consumption. Simulation results show that the minimum wage would be rather ineffective in raising net household incomes and reducing income inequality, even if it ledto a substantial increase in hourly wages at the bottom of the wage distribution. The ineffectiveness of a minimum wage in Germany is mainly due to the existing system of means-tested income support and the position of minimum wage earners in the income distribution.minimum wage, wage distribution, employment effects, income distribution, inequality, microsimulation

Labor market and income effects of a legal minimum wage in Germany

In view of rising wage and income inequality, the introduction of a legal minimum wage has recently become an important policy issue in Germany. We analyze the distributional effects of a nationwide legal minimum wage of 7.50 € per hour on the basis of a microsimulation model which accounts for the complex interactions between individual wages, the tax-benefit system and net household incomes, also taking into account potential employment effects as well as indirect effects on consumption. Simulation results show that the minimum wage would be rather ineffective in raising net household incomes and reducing income inequality, even if it led to a substantial increase in hourly wages at the bottom of the wage distribution. The ineffectiveness of a minimum wage in Germany is mainly due to the existing system of means-tested income support and the position of minimum wage earners in the income distribution

zur Reform des Niedriglohnsektors in Deutschland

In diesem Beitrag werden die Beschäftigungswirkungen von Lohnsubventionen und eines Mindestlohnes für Deutschland analysiert. Studien zum Mindestlohn im Baugewerbe und Simulationen zu einem allgemeinen Mindestlohn weisen einhellig auf Beschäftigungsverluste durch einen gesetzlichen Mindestlohn für die Bundesrepublik hin. Die Größenordnung hängt vom Mindestlohnniveau, Gütermarktreaktionen und der Reichweite des Mindestlohnes (Einschluss Auszubildender, geringfügig Beschäftigter) ab. Bei einem Mindestlohn von 7,5 € pro Stunde und elastischer Güternachfrage schätzen wir einen Gesamtverlust von ca. 220.000, insbesondere geringfügig Beschäftigten. Evaluationen bestehender Lohnsubventionen finden nur geringe Arbeitsanreizeffekte. Im Beitrag wird alternativ der aufkommensneutral gestaltete „Beschäftigungsbonus“, der geringe Stundenlöhne und nicht niedrige Erwerbseinkommen subventioniert, betrachtet. Dieser würde ein zusätzliches Arbeitsangebot von ca. 80.000 Personen bzw. ein zusätzliches Stundenangebot von etwa 420.000 Vollzeitäquivalenten induzieren. In Kombination mit einem allgemeinen Mindestlohn wären arbeitnehmerseitige Lohnsubventionen ineffektiv. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass in diesem Fall arbeitgeberseitige Lohnsubventionen die infolge des Mindestlohnes gestiegenen Arbeitskosten kompensieren und Beschäftigungsverluste im Niedriglohnbereich teilweise verringern können

the case of Germany

A popular argument for a federal minimum wage is that it will prevent in-work poverty and reduce income inequality. We examine this assertion for Germany, a welfare state with a relative generous means-tested social minimum and high marginal tax rates. Our analysis is based on a microsimulation model that accounts for the interactions between wages, the tax-benefit system and net incomes at the household level as well as employment and price effects on the distribution of incomes induced by the introduction of a minimum wage. We show that the impact of even a relatively high federal minimum wage on disposable incomes is small because low wage earners are scattered over the whole income distribution and wage increases would to a large extent be offset by reductions in means-tested welfare transfers and high marginal tax rates. Taking into account negative employment effects and increases in consumer prices induced by the minimum wage would wipe out any positive direct effects on net incomes of households affected by the minimum wage

Mindestlohn kein geeignetes Instrument gegen Armut in Deutschland

Ein Argument für die Einführung eines gesetzlichen Mindestlohnes in Deutschland ist die Verringerung von Armut der arbeitenden Bevölkerung. Eine aktuelle Studie des DIW Berlin untersucht die Verteilungswirkungen eines bundesweiten Mindestlohnes von 7,50 Euro auf Löhne und Haushaltseinkommen. Obwohl seine Einführung mit einem erheblichen Anstieg der Bruttolöhne im unteren Bereich verbunden wäre, ist ein Mindestlohn - gemessen am Nettoeinkommen der Haushalte - kein geeignetes Instrument zur Reduktion von Armut und Ungleichheit, selbst wenn Beschäftigungsneutralität unterstellt wird. Durch die Lohnsteigerung entfallen zum einen bedürftigkeitsorientierte Einkommenstransfers. Zum anderen leben vom Mindestlohn betroffene Arbeitnehmer nicht mehrheitlich in Haushalten unterhalb der Armutsschwelle, sondern verteilen sich über verschiedene Einkommensklassen.Minimum wage, Wage distribution, Poverty reduction, Microsimulation