Extinction transitions in correlated external noise

We analyze the influence of long-range correlated (colored) external noise on extinction phase transitions in growth and spreading processes. Uncorrelated environmental noise (i.e., temporal disorder) was recently shown to give rise to an unusual infinite-noise critical point [Europhys. Lett. 112, 30002 (2015)]. It is characterized by enormous density fluctuations that increase without limit at criticality. As a result, a typical population decays much faster than the ensemble average which is dominated by rare events. Using the logistic evolution equation as an example, we show here that positively correlated (red) environmental noise further enhances these effects. This means, the correlations accelerate the decay of a typical population but slow down the decay of the ensemble average. Moreover, the mean time to extinction of a population in the active, surviving phase grows slower than a power law with population size. To determine the complete critical behavior of the extinction transition, we establish a relation to fractional random walks, and we perform extensive Monte-Carlo simulations.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, Final versio

Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates

Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates. JEL Classification: E52, C33, C53factor model, forecasting, Large Data Sets, monetary policy, news, Real Time Data

Detecting periodicity in experimental data using linear modeling techniques

Fourier spectral estimates and, to a lesser extent, the autocorrelation function are the primary tools to detect periodicities in experimental data in the physical and biological sciences. We propose a new method which is more reliable than traditional techniques, and is able to make clear identification of periodic behavior when traditional techniques do not. This technique is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (autoregressive) models so that only the essential features of an autoregressive model are retained. These models we call reduced autoregressive models (RARM). The essential features of reduced autoregressive models include any periodicity present in the data. We provide theoretical and numerical evidence from both experimental and artificial data, to demonstrate that this technique will reliably detect periodicities if and only if they are present in the data. There are strong information theoretic arguments to support the statement that RARM detects periodicities if they are present. Surrogate data techniques are used to ensure the converse. Furthermore, our calculations demonstrate that RARM is more robust, more accurate, and more sensitive, than traditional spectral techniques.Comment: 10 pages (revtex) and 6 figures. To appear in Phys Rev E. Modified styl

Optimal phase space projection for noise reduction

In this communication we will re-examine the widely studied technique of phase space projection. By imposing a time domain constraint (TDC) on the residual noise, we deduce a more general version of the optimal projector, which includes those appearing in previous literature as subcases but does not assume the independence between the clean signal and the noise. As an application, we will apply this technique for noise reduction. Numerical results show that our algorithm has succeeded in augmenting the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for simulated data from the R\"ossler system and experimental speech record.Comment: Accepted version for PR

An Evangelistic Strategy for Reaching Baby Boomers in Rock Island County, Illinois

Problem The Moline Seventh-day Adventist Church, with a regularly attending membership of approximately 65, has fifteen Baby Boomer members in a county of over 160,000, of whom at least 44,000 are Boomers, with over 30,000 of these being unchurched. This project sought to develop a strategy for attracting Baby Boomers to the Moline church. Method A strategy was developed and implemented to attract Baby Boomers to church based upon six valid and transferable principles drawn from existing literature and the successful programs of the Willow Creek and Saddleback churches-and the clearly established legitimacy of targeting specific groups for evangelism. This strategy included: (1) a prayer offensive using door hangers to invite community members to pray for the community; (2) a community survey to ascertain felt needs; (3) a Seeker Service; and (4) an evangelistic series using satellite downlink technology. Results While the strategy is based upon valid foundational principles and assumptions, it met with varying degrees of acceptance by members of the Moline Adventist church, and with little success in reaching out to Baby Boomers in the targeted community. While the concepts of targeted evangelism were accepted on an intellectual basis by most members, there was little or no personal involvement in the evangelistic outreach as needed for the strategy to succeed. The major hindrance to the project’s success was not, therefore, the principles employed, or the overall strategy itself, but the inability to illicit commitment from the members or to moboilize active support for the strategy by the host church. Conclusions A major change in organizational methodology such as this project sought to bring about requires significant time, careful planning and implementation, and a sense of urgency that the changes are needed. Without these elements, the change will not succeed. Church leaders and members need to develop a sense of eschatological urgency based on the promise of the soon return of Jesus and the sense that many of those in our communities will be lost unless they come into relationship with Jesus