Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case.

When new forensic evidence becomes available after a conviction there is no systematic framework to help lawyers to determine whether it raises sufficient questions about the verdict in order to launch an appeal. This paper presents such a framework driven by a recent case, in which a defendant was convicted primarily on the basis of audio evidence, but where subsequent analysis of the evidence revealed additional sounds that were not considered during the trial. The framework is intended to overcome the gap between what is generally known from scientific analyses and what is hypothesized in a legal setting. It is based on Bayesian networks (BNs) which have the potential to be a structured and understandable way to evaluate the evidence in a specific case context. However, BN methods suffered a setback with regards to the use in court due to the confusing way they have been used in some legal cases in the past. To address this concern, we show the extent to which the reasoning and decisions within the particular case can be made explicit and transparent. The BN approach enables us to clearly define the relevant propositions and evidence, and uses sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of the evidence under different assumptions. The results show that such a framework is suitable to identify information that is currently missing, yet clearly crucial for a valid and complete reasoning process. Furthermore, a method is provided whereby BNs can serve as a guide to not only reason with incomplete evidence in forensic cases, but also identify very specific research questions that should be addressed to extend the evidence base and solve similar issues in the future.This research was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK through the Security Science Doctoral Research Training Centre (UCL SECReT) based at University College London (EP/G037264/1), and the European Research Council (ERC-2013-AdG339182-BAYES_KNOWLEDGE)

Mite species inhabiting commercial bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) nests in Polish greenhouses

Nests of social insects are usually inhabited by various mite species that feed on pollen, other micro-arthropods or are parasitic. Well-known negative effects of worldwide economic importance are caused by mites parasitizing honeybee colonies. Lately, attention has focused on the endoparasitic mite Locustacarus buchneri that has been found in commercial bumblebees. However, little is known of other mites associated with commercial bumblebee nests. Transportation of commercial bumblebee colonies with unwanted residents may introduce foreign mite species to new localities. In this study, we assessed the prevalence and species composition of mites associated with commercial bumblebee nests and determined if the mites are foreign species for Poland and for Europe. The study was conducted on 37 commercial bumblebee nests from two companies (Dutch and Israeli), originating from two greenhouses in southern Poland, and on 20 commercial bumblebee colonies obtained directly from suppliers. The species composition and abundance of mites inhabiting commercial bumblebee nests were determined. Seven mite species from three families were found in nests after greenhouse exploitation. The predominant mite species was Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Acaridae) that was a 100-fold more numerous than representatives of the family Laelapidae (Hypoaspis marginepilosa, H. hyatti, H. bombicolens). Representatives of Parasitidae (Parasitellus fucorum, P. crinitus, P. ignotus) were least numerous. All identified mite species are common throughout Europe, foreign species were not found. Mites were not detected in nests obtained directly from suppliers. We conclude that probably bumblebee nests are invaded by local mite species during greenhouse exploitation

A Novel Phase Variation Mechanism in the Meningococcus Driven by a Ligand-Responsive Repressor and Differential Spacing of Distal Promoter Elements

Phase variable expression, mediated by high frequency reversible changes in the length of simple sequence repeats, facilitates adaptation of bacterial populations to changing environments and is frequently important in bacterial virulence. Here we elucidate a novel phase variable mechanism for NadA, an adhesin and invasin of Neisseria meningitidis. The NadR repressor protein binds to operators flanking the phase variable tract and contributes to the differential expression levels of phase variant promoters with different numbers of repeats likely due to different spacing between operators. We show that IHF binds between these operators, and may permit looping of the promoter, allowing interaction of NadR at operators located distally or overlapping the promoter. The 4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid, a metabolite of aromatic amino acid catabolism that is secreted in saliva, induces NadA expression by inhibiting the DNA binding activity of the repressor. When induced, only minor differences are evident between NadR-independent transcription levels of promoter phase variants and are likely due to differential RNA polymerase contacts leading to altered promoter activity. Our results suggest that NadA expression is under both stochastic and tight environmental-sensing regulatory control, both mediated by the NadR repressor, and may be induced during colonization of the oropharynx where it plays a major role in the successful adhesion and invasion of the mucosa. Hence, simple sequence repeats in promoter regions may be a strategy used by host-adapted bacterial pathogens to randomly switch between expression states that may nonetheless still be induced by appropriate niche-specific signals

MICALs in control of the cytoskeleton, exocytosis, and cell death

MICALs form an evolutionary conserved family of multidomain signal transduction proteins characterized by a flavoprotein monooxygenase domain. MICALs are being implicated in the regulation of an increasing number of molecular and cellular processes including cytoskeletal dynamics and intracellular trafficking. Intriguingly, some of these effects are dependent on the MICAL monooxygenase enzyme and redox signaling, while other functions rely on other parts of the MICAL protein. Recent breakthroughs in our understanding of MICAL signaling identify the ability of MICALs to bind and directly modify the actin cytoskeleton, link MICALs to the docking and fusion of exocytotic vesicles, and uncover MICALs as anti-apoptotic proteins. These discoveries could lead to therapeutic advances in neural regeneration, cancer, and other diseases

On the coevolution of social norms in primitive societies

We study the evolutionary origin of a social norm of the kind "cooperate frequently and share fully" observed in modern hunter-gatherers. In order to do this, a two-stage game in which a pie has first to be produced and then divided is proposed. We assume that the bargaining rule is sensitive to investment behavior and to the degree of property rights protection. We show that, when a unique stochastically stable outcome exists, a norm of investment and a norm of division coevolve supporting the efficient investment profile and the egalitarian distribution of the surplus, respectively. The conditions needed for norms to coevolve depend on whether property rights over the fruits of one's own independent investment are secured or not