UTJECAJ REFORMI POREZA I SOCIJALNIH NAKNADA NA ISPLATIVOST RADA U HRVATSKOJ OD 2013. DO 2018.

Sustavi socijalnih naknada mogu imati negativne financijske poticaje za rad, posebno onih skupina ljudi koje zaposlenjem gube izdašne iznose socijalnih naknada. Cilj je rada analizirati utjecaj reformi sustava poreza i socijalnih naknada provedenih u razdoblju 2013. – 2018. na poticaje za rad nezaposlenih osoba u Hrvatskoj za odabrane tipove hipotetskih kućanstava te napraviti komparativnu analizu Hrvatske s ostalim zemljama Europske unije. Kao pokazatelj financijskih poticaja za rad koristi se participacijska porezna stopa, koja se procjenjuje s pomoću EUROMOD-ova i OECD-ova modela poreza i socijalnih naknada. Rezultati pokazuju kako u Hrvatskoj postoje kućanstva koja imaju jako niske poticaje za rad, a to su samohrani roditelji s dvoje djece i parovi s dvoje djece u kojima jedan supružnik razmatra zaposlenje, a drugi ne radi. Nadalje, komparativna analiza otkriva kako se za spomenute tipove kućanstva Hrvatska nalazi među zemljama s najnižim poticajima za rad

Determinants of Tax Morale in Croatia: an Ordered Logit Model

Background: A lower tax morality leads to an increased readiness to become active in the unofficial economy and causes the lack of public revenues. Objectives: The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants that shape tax morale of Croatian citizens. Methods/Approach: An ordered logit model is employed to evaluate which determinants shape tax morale of Croatian citizens. Data for the research were collected from 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted in Croatia in late 2015. Results: The descriptive analysis illustrates that 52 percent of respondents reported a high level of tax morale, 26 percent of respondents have a low tax morale, while 8 and 14 percent have a mid-low and a mid-high tax morale, respectively. The ordered logit analysis revealed that gender, age, financial situation, region, and participation in the unofficial economy have an impact on the tax morale. Conclusions: Besides socio-demographic, socio-economic, and spatial determinants, a great number of sanctions for participation in informal activities also shapes tax morale of the Croatian citizens. More precisely, marginal effects show that those perceiving the expected sanctions as "normal tax or social security contributions due, plus a fine or a prison sentence" have by 6.3 percentage points higher probability of reporting the highest tax morale than others

DECOMPOSITIONS OF INEQUALITY BY INCOME SOURCE: WHAT THE SURVEY DATA CORRECTED USING TAX DATA TELL US

U ovom radu dekomponira se nejednakost ukupnog dohotka na sastavnice koje prikazuju doprinose pojedinih izvora dohotka ukupnoj nejednakosti. Glavni izvori dohotka su dohodak od zaposlenosti, samozaposlenosti, kapitala i imovine, socijalne naknade te izravni porezi. Rezultati za Hrvatsku uspoređeni su s rezultatima za 14 odabranih EU zemalja, a kao podatkovna podloga korišten je mikrosimulacijski model poreza i socijalnih naknada EUROMOD. Novina koju donosi ovo istraživanje jest upotreba EU-SILC podataka za Hrvatsku koji su korigirani kako bi reprezentativnije odražavali gornji dio distribucije dohotka. Analiza pokazuje da nereprezentativni podaci pružaju pristranu sliku o nejednakosti ukupnog dohotka i relativnoj važnosti pojedinih izvora dohotka.Income inequality is decomposed into parts showing the contributions of individual income sources to total income inequality. The main income sources are employment income, self-employment income, capital and property income, social benefits and direct taxes. The results for Croatia are compared with the results for 14 selected EU countries, while the microsimulation model of taxes and social benefits EUROMOD was used as a source of data. The novelty brought by this research is the use of EU-SILC data for Croatia, which were corrected to reflect the top of the income distribution more representatively. The analysis shows that non-representative data offer a biased picture of total income inequality and the relative importance of individual income sources

An institutional theory of informal entrepreneurship: some lessons from FYR Macedonia

In recent years, a new institutionalist theory has emerged to explain the prevalence of informal sector entrepreneurship. This argues that formal institutional failures lead to the emergence of an asymmetry between the formal rules (laws and regulations) and the norms, values and beliefs of entrepreneurs regarding the acceptability of participating in the informal sector, which in turn leads to the prevalence of informal entrepreneurship. The aim of this paper is to evaluate this social actor approach by reporting evidence from 453 face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of entrepreneurs in FYR Macedonia. This reveals not only a significant association between participation in the informal economy and the non-alignment of entrepreneurs' views with the formal rules, but specific formal institutional failings that are significantly associated with the acceptability of informal entrepreneurship, namely poor quality public services, a lack of tax fairness, corruption and instability in the formal institutions. The theoretical and policy implications are then discussed

Analysis of the impact of the tax-benefit system on work incentives in the Republic of Croatia using microsimulation models

U disertaciji se analizira utjecaj sustava poreza, socijalnih naknada i politika za povećanje isplativosti rada na poticaje za rad i stopu siromaštva u Republici Hrvatskoj i Republici Sloveniji. Promatraju se osobe izvan rada i njihov hipotetski prelazak u svijet rada, a kao glavni pokazatelj isplativosti rada izračunava se participacijska porezna stopa (PPS), koja mjeri koliki će dio bruto plaće ostvarene na novom poslu biti izgubljen iz proračuna kućanstava zbog povećanja iznosa plaćenih poreza i smanjenja iznosa primljenih socijalnih naknada. Rezultati pokazuju da je prosječan PPS za osobe izvan rada u Hrvatskoj umjerene veličine uz značajan postotak osoba s visokom i vrlo visokim PPS-om. Utvrdilo se da vjerojatnost vrlo visokog PPS-a za osobe izvan rada pada sa stupnjem njihova obrazovanja i s razinom tržišnog dohotka koji ostvaruju njihov supružnik i ostali članovi kućanstva, a raste s brojem maloljetne djece. Nadalje, komparativna analiza isplativosti rada između Hrvatske i Slovenije sugerira da Slovenija ima viši PPS i veći udio osoba izvan rada s visokom i vrlo visokom PPS-om nego Hrvatska. Što se tiče analize politika za povećanje isplativosti rada u obje zemlje, rezultati pokazuju kako su obilježja politika vrlo važna, a odabir odgovarajućeg tipa politike ovisi o postavljenim ciljevima. Tako naknade za zaposlene koje se provjeravaju prema dohotku obitelji imaju bolje redistributivne učinke te veći utjecaj na povećanje poticaja za rad najranjivijih skupina (samohrani roditelji, parovi u kojima nitko ne radi, itd.), ali istovremeno smanjuju poticaje za rad drugog odraslog člana u paru.This dissertation analyzes the impact of the tax-benefit system and make work pay policies on work incentives and poverty reduction in Croatia and Slovenia. Persons out of work and their hypothetical transitions to employment are considered. As the main indicator of work incentives the participation tax rate (PTR) is estimated, which represents a portion of additional income that is lost because taxes increase and benefits decrease in transition of a person from non-employment into employment. The results show that the average PTR in Croatia is a moderate size, with a significant percentage of persons with high and very high PTR. The results of the logit model show that the likelihood of a very high PTR for unemployed and inactive persons in Croatia declines with their educational attainment and with the level of market income of their spouse and other household members, while it increases with the number of dependent children. A comparative analysis found that Slovenia has a higher average PTR than Croatia and has a much higher share of persons with high and very high PTR. As for the analysis of the introduced make work pay policies in both countries, the results show that the family based in-work benefit are more effective in reducing PTR of the most vulnerable groups than individual based in-work benefit. Furthermore, the family based in-work benefit is more effective in reducing poverty rates than individual based in-work benefit. However,family based in-work benefit has a negative impact on the work incentives of two-earner couples

Procjena bruto plaća za neaktivne i nezaposlene osobe u Republici Hrvatskoj odabranim ekonometrijskim modelima

U radu se procjenjuje vjerojatnost zaposlenosti i bruto-2 plaće po satu (koja je jednaka ukupnom trošku rada po satu) za neaktivne i nezaposlene osobe. Analiza se provodi odvojeno za muškarce i žene. Analiziraju se razlike u karakteristikama (dob, obrazovanje, bračni status, mjesto stanovanja, broj djece, ekonomske djelatnosti) zaposlenih osoba u odnosu na nezaposlene ili neaktivne osobe. Modeli za procjenu bruto-2 plaća po satu utvrđuju kako pojedine osobne karakteristike utječu na bruto-2 plaću po satu i na vjerojatnost zaposlenosti. Koriste se podaci iz Ankete o dohotku stanovništva za 2011. godinu, koju provodi Državni zavod za statistiku. U izabranom uzorku uspješno su anketirana 6.403 kućanstva, što daje uzorak od 16.948 osoba. Svakoj osobi iz uzorka dodijeljen je odgovarajući ponder koji je procijenjen od strane DZS-a. Navedena ponderacija uzorka omogućava projekciju uzorka na cijelu populaciju. U ovom radu su sve procjene dobivene na temelju ponderiranog uzorka. U uzorcima poput ADS-a podaci o plaćama su prikupljeni samo za osobe koje rade, dok za nezaposlene i neaktivne osobe ne postoje podaci o njihovim plaćama. Stoga, ako su potrebni podaci o plaćama za osobe koje ne rade, potrebo ih je procijeniti. U ovom radu se njihove procjene vrše na sljedeći način. Bruto-2 plaće po satu su najprije procijenjene primjenom modela višestruke linearne regresije. Međutim, ako postoji problem odabira uzorka, takve procjene mogu biti pristrane pa se preporuča korištenje tobit II modela. U Hrvatskoj je dobiveno da je problem odabira uzorka prisutan kod žena, pa se kod njih bruto-2 plaće po satu trebaju procjenjivati tobit II modelom. Kod muškaraca je dobiveno da ne postoji selekcijski problem. Procijenjeni parametri tobit II i linearnog regresijskog modela su gotovo identični i bruto-2 plaće po satu se mogu procijeniti koristeći model višestruke linearne regresije.The thesis estimates the probabilities of employment and gross-2 hourly wages (which is equal to total labour cost per hour) for inactive and unemployed persons in Croatia. The analysis was conducted separately for men and women. The differences in characteristics (age, education, marital status, place of residence, number of children, economic activities) of employed persons in comparison to the unemployed or inactive persons are analysed. Models for estimating gross-2 hourly wage determine how personal characteristics affect gross-2 hourly wage and probability to being employed. The microdata used in the research come from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (Anketa o dohotku stanovništva, ADS). The survey has been conducted by Croatian Bureau of Statistics (Državni zavod za statistiku, DZS). The selected sample contains data for 6,403 households with 16,948 persons. Every person has its own sampling weight, which is calculated by DZS. These sampling weights enable the aggregation of sample data to the whole population level. All estimations and calculation in this thesis are performed using personal sampling weights. In samples like ADS, data on wages are recorded only for people who are actually working, whereas for unemployed and inactive persons no wage data are present. Therefore, if wage data on non-working population are required, they have to be somehow estimated. In this thesis, estimation is performed in the following way. Gross-2 hourly wages are estimated using multiple linear regression model. However, if the sample selection problem exists, such estimates may be biased and the use of tobit II model is recommended. In Croatian case it is obtained that the sample selection problem is present for women and the gross-2 hourly wages have to be estimated using tobit II model. For men sample selection problem does not occur. The estimated coefficients in both models are almost identical and the gross-2 hourly wages can be estimated using multiple linear regression model