23 research outputs found
Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change
Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In
Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum
growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for
insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the
nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may
impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate
the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding
performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging
success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according
to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated
how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in
vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted
gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we
found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher
frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population.
Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species
than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and
climate change hotspotinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio