Attack risk on infected properties during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract The aim of this preliminary study was to estimate the proportions of seropositive horses on infected premises (IPs) in order to assess the attack risk of the disease. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the differences in attack risks between enterprise sizes and predefined spatial clusters/regions. The average attack risk experienced during the outbreak was 96.88% (median 100%) but it differed according to the size of the enterprise and other geographical and demographic conditions. The highest attack risks were observed in the Dubbo cluster/region and the lowest in the Narrabri–Northern cluster. Properties with fewer horses were generally more likely to have higher attack risks than larger enterprises though this was not true for all cluster/region. Keywords equine influenza, epidemic, seroprevalenc

Assessment of the proportion of under-reporting during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia.

During the 2007 equine influenza (EI) outbreak in Australia, there was no objective information about the possible under-reporting of cases by horse owners either so that they would avoid movement restrictions or because of their inability to detect infection. This investigation aimed to estimate the proportion of underreporting during the outbreak based on the results of surveillance undertaken in conjunction with vaccination. The results provided improved estimates of morbidity during the outbreak and indicated the level of under-reporting likely to occur in future outbreaks of other infectious diseases in horses in Australia. Keywords: disease control program; epidemiology; equine influenz

Assessment of the proportion of under-reporting during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia.

During the 2007 equine influenza (EI) outbreak in Australia, there was no objective information about the possible under-reporting of cases by horse owners either so that they would avoid movement restrictions or because of their inability to detect infection. This investigation aimed to estimate the proportion of underreporting during the outbreak based on the results of surveillance undertaken in conjunction with vaccination. The results provided improved estimates of morbidity during the outbreak and indicated the level of under-reporting likely to occur in future outbreaks of other infectious diseases in horses in Australia. Keywords: disease control program; epidemiology; equine influenz

Attack risk on infected properties during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract The aim of this preliminary study was to estimate the proportions of seropositive horses on infected premises (IPs) in order to assess the attack risk of the disease. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the differences in attack risks between enterprise sizes and predefined spatial clusters/regions. The average attack risk experienced during the outbreak was 96.88% (median 100%) but it differed according to the size of the enterprise and other geographical and demographic conditions. The highest attack risks were observed in the Dubbo cluster/region and the lowest in the Narrabri–Northern cluster. Properties with fewer horses were generally more likely to have higher attack risks than larger enterprises though this was not true for all cluster/region. Keywords equine influenza, epidemic, seroprevalenc

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalenc

Evaluation of national surveillance methods for detection of Irish dairy herds infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility and cost-effectiveness of a range of national surveillance methods for paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. We simulated alternative surveillance strategies applied to dairy cattle herds for the detection of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-infected herds (case-detection) or for estimation of confidence of herd freedom from infection (assurance testing). Strategies simulated included whole-herd milk or serum serology, serology on cull cows at slaughter, bulk milk tank serology, environmental testing, and pooled fecal testing. None of the strategies evaluated were ideal for widespread national case-detection surveillance. Herd testing with milk or serum ELISA or pooled fecal testing were the most effective methods currently available for detection of MAP-infected herds, with median herd sensitivity >60% and 100% herd specificity, although they are relatively expensive for widespread use. Environmental sampling shows promise as an alternative, with median herd sensitivity of 69%, but is also expensive unless samples can be pooled and requires further validation under Irish conditions. Bulk tank milk testing is the lowest cost option and may be useful for detecting high-prevalence herds but had median herd sensitivity <10% and positive predictive value of 85%. Cull cow sampling strategies were also lower cost but had median herd sensitivity <40% and herd positive predictive values of <50%, resulting in an increased number of test-positive herds, each of which requires follow-up herd testing to clarify status. Possible false-positive herd testing results associated with prior tuberculosis testing also presented logistical issues for both cull cow and bulk milk testing. Whole-herd milk or serum ELISA testing are currently the preferred testing strategies to estimate confidence of herd freedom from MAP in dairy herds due to the good technical performance and moderate cost of these strategies for individual herd testing. Cull cow serology and bulk tank milk sampling provide only minimal assurance value, with confidence of herd freedom increasing only minimally above the prior estimate. Different testing strategies should be considered when deciding on cost-effective approaches for case-detection compared with those used for building confidence of herd freedom (assurance testing) as part of a national program.Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marin