Application of Structured Decision Making to Wildlife Management in Montana

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Whereas there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying optimal decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic optimal decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. We illustrate the application of this process to management needs, including an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers, including in terms of knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Managers can be confident resulting decisions are most effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes and risk tolerance

Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep in Montana—Project Update

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for effective management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Approximately half of the herds in Montana have suffered die-offs since the 1980s, many of which were pneumonia events. A set of models that identify risk of pneumonia and the best management decisions given that risk would be of great value for proactive management of pneumonia epizootics. Our first objective is to design and test a risk model that will help predict a herd’s risk of pneumonia. We hypothesize that various factors increase risk through pathogen exposure, pathogen spread, and disease susceptibility. Analysis of these factors comparing herds with and without recent pneumonia histories using Bayesian logistic regression will allow us to design a risk model. Our second objective is to develop a proactive decision model that incorporates estimates of pneumonia risk to help evaluate costs and benefits of alternative proactive actions appropriate to those estimates. We will use a Structured Decision Making framework, which provides a deliberative, transparent, and defensible decision-making process that is particularly valuable in complex decision-making environments such as wildlife disease management. Together the resulting risk and decision models, to be completed this year, will help managers estimate pneumonia risk and identify the best management action based on both the severity of each herd’s predicted risk and costs and benefits of competing management alternatives. Ultimately, this project will demonstrate the development and application of risk and decision models for proactive wildlife health programs in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks

A Risk Model for Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Risk factors associated with the disease are poorly understood, making pneumonia epizootics hard to predict; such epizootics are thus managed reactively rather than proactively. We developed a model that identifies risk factors and addresses biological questions about risk. Using Bayesian logistic regression with repeated measures, we found that private land, weed control using domestic sheep or goats, pneumonia history, and herd density were associated with risk of pneumonia in 43 herds in Montana that experienced 22 epizootics out of 637 herd years from 1979–2013. Within high-risk areas occupied by herds, risk increased with greater amounts of private land and use of domestic sheep or goats for weed control. Herds had >10 times greater odds of having a pneumonia epizootic if they or neighboring herds within high-risk areas had a history of pneumonia. Risk greatly increased when herds were at high density, with nearly 15 times greater odds of pneumonia compared to herds at low density. Number of federal sheep and goat allotments, proximity to nearest herds, ram:ewe ratios, normality of winter and spring precipitation, and herds with native versus mixed or reintroduced origin were not associated with increased risk. We conclude that factors associated with risk of pneumonia are complex and may not always be from the most obvious sources. The ability to identify high risk herds will help determine where to focus management efforts and what risk factors most affect each herd, facilitating more effective, proactive management

Modeling Proactive Decisions to Manage Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep

Pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) are a major challenge for wildlife agencies due to the complexity of the disease, long-term impacts, and lack of tools to manage risk. We developed a decision model to facilitate proactive management of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep in Montana. Our decision model integrates a risk model to predict probability of pneumonia epizootics based on identified risk factors. It uses a structured decision making (SDM) approach to analyze potential decisions based on predictions from the risk model, herd-specific management objectives, and predicted consequences and trade-offs. We demonstrated our model’s use with an analysis of representative herds and analyzed the recommended decisions to understand them clearly. We learned that proactive management for each herd was expected to outperform in meeting multiple, competing management objectives compared to ongoing status quo management. Based on sensitivity analyses, we also learned that the recommended decisions were relatively robust with limited sensitivity to variations in model inputs and uncertainties; we expect this to be the case in future analyses as well. Our decision model addressed the challenges of uncertainty, risk tolerance, and the multi-objective nature of management of bighorn sheep while providing a consistent, transparent, and deliberative approach for making decisions for each herd. It is a unique tool for managing pneumonia epizootics using an accessible framework for biologists and managers. Our work also provides a case study for developing similar SDM-based decision models, particularly for other wildlife diseases, to address challenges of making complex decisions

Justice Beyond Borders? Australia and the International Criminal Court

The International Criminal Court (ICC) came into being on 1 July 2002. A four-person team opened an office in The Hague and will collect reports and allegations of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity until judges and a prosecutor are appointed towards the end of 2003. Although the court was heralded by many states and international lawyers as the most important positive development in international law since the formation of the United Nations, it did not get off to an auspicious start. The Bush administration was concerned that US military forces operating overseas would be particularly vulnerable to what it described as 'politicised' prosecutions. It therefore insisted that not only would it not be a part of the ICC, but also that it would not sanction the continuation of UN peacekeeping operations. Closer to home, the Australian Senate only ratified the ICC's founding treaty, the Rome Statute, after a bitter debate that split both the Liberal and National parties. This was the case even though the Howard government-and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer in particular-had been a leading advocate of the court and ratification of the Rome Statute had been a Liberal Party election promise in 2001. The cost that Downer, and pro-ICC Attorney-General Daryl Williams had to pay in order to appease restive conservative backbenchers, the National Party, and an increasingly reluctant (and pro-US) Prime Minister and secure the ratification was a declaration that reaffirmed the primacy of the Australian judicial system over the ICC. The declaration insisted that no Australian would be prosecuted by the court without the consent of the Attomey-General, and asserted Australia's right to define what is meant by the crimes of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. We argue that although Downer and Williams should be commended for their commitment to international justice, the declaration attached to Australia's ratification was unnecessary and unhelpful. The first and third aspects of the declaration were unnecessary: the principle of complementarity enshrined in the Rome Statute means that the ICC already recognises the primacy of domestic jurisdiction, and the crimes covered are already considered to fall under universal jurisdiction, as the Nuremberg, Tokyo and more recent Pinochet trials showed (see Weller 1999). The second is unhelpful because it contravenes both the letter and the spirit of the Rome Statute. We will begin, then, by tracing the development of the ICC debate in Australian politics. In 1998, the government was an enthusiastic advocate of the court but by 2002 an alliance of an ardently pro-US Prime Minister, vocal right-wing parliamentarians and their supporters, and The Australian (and its foreign affairs editor Greg Sheridan in particular) combined to put ratification in doubt. Contrary to Prime Minister John Howard's claims, this debate was not well informed. Instead, it was characterised by hearsay, inaccuracy and scare-mongering. The subsequent section of the article demonstrates this by focusing on the background to, and creation of, the Rome Statute

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

The Sign of the V: Papers in Honour of Sten Vikner

‘The Sign of the V’ is a festschrift in honour of Sten Vikner, written by friends, colleagues, and collaborators, present and past, to celebrate both his 60th birthday and his contribution to the field of linguistics. The papers cover a wide range of topics in theoretical and empirical linguistic research, from phonetics and phonology, through morphology, semantics, and syntax, to pragmatics, as well as language acquisition, second-language learning, language processing, language teaching, language contact, historical linguistics, and language variation and change. Many different languages are featured, including the Scandinavian languages (i.e. Danish, Faroese, Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish), Catalan, Dutch, English, Finnish, West Flemish, French, German, Greek, Italian, Scots, and Yiddish. The scope and depth of the chapters in this anthology is a clear indication of the scope and depth of Sten Vikner’s own comparative research well as his impact on the field of linguistics.‘The Sign of the V’ is a festschrift in honour of Sten Vikner, written by friends, colleagues, and collaborators, present and past, to celebrate both his 60th birthday and his contribution to the field of linguistics. The papers cover a wide range of topics in theoretical and empirical linguistic research, from phonetics and phonology, through morphology, semantics, and syntax, to pragmatics, as well as language acquisition, second-language learning, language processing, language teaching, language contact, historical linguistics, and language variation and change. Many different languages are featured, including the Scandinavian languages (i.e. Danish, Faroese, Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish), Catalan, Dutch, English, Finnish, West Flemish, French, German, Greek, Italian, Scots, and Yiddish. The scope and depth of the chapters in this anthology is a clear indication of the scope and depth of Sten Vikner’s own comparative research well as his impact on the field of linguistics

The Sign of the V: Papers in Honour of Sten Vikner

‘The Sign of the V’ is a festschrift in honour of Sten Vikner, written by friends, colleagues, and collaborators, present and past, to celebrate both his 60th birthday and his contribution to the field of linguistics. The papers cover a wide range of topics in theoretical and empirical linguistic research, from phonetics and phonology, through morphology, semantics, and syntax, to pragmatics, as well as language acquisition, second-language learning, language processing, language teaching, language contact, historical linguistics, and language variation and change. Many different languages are featured, including the Scandinavian languages (i.e. Danish, Faroese, Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish), Catalan, Dutch, English, Finnish, West Flemish, French, German, Greek, Italian, Scots, and Yiddish. The scope and depth of the chapters in this anthology is a clear indication of the scope and depth of Sten Vikner’s own comparative research well as his impact on the field of linguistics.‘The Sign of the V’ is a festschrift in honour of Sten Vikner, written by friends, colleagues, and collaborators, present and past, to celebrate both his 60th birthday and his contribution to the field of linguistics. The papers cover a wide range of topics in theoretical and empirical linguistic research, from phonetics and phonology, through morphology, semantics, and syntax, to pragmatics, as well as language acquisition, second-language learning, language processing, language teaching, language contact, historical linguistics, and language variation and change. Many different languages are featured, including the Scandinavian languages (i.e. Danish, Faroese, Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish), Catalan, Dutch, English, Finnish, West Flemish, French, German, Greek, Italian, Scots, and Yiddish. The scope and depth of the chapters in this anthology is a clear indication of the scope and depth of Sten Vikner’s own comparative research well as his impact on the field of linguistics

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society