An Information Theory Approach to Hypothesis Testing in Criminological Research

Background: This research demonstrates how the Akaike information criterion (AIC) can be an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing in selecting best fitting models. It presents an example to illustrate how AIC can be used in this way. Methods: Using data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we test models of place-based predictor variables on street robbery and commercial robbery. We build models to balance explanatory power and parsimony. Measures include the presence of different kinds of businesses, together with selected age groups and social disadvantage. Results: Models including place-based measures of land use emerged as the best models among the set of tested models. These were superior to models that included measures of age and socioeconomic status. The best models for commercial and street robbery include three measures of ordinary businesses, liquor stores, and spatial lag. Conclusions: Models based on information theory offer a useful alternative to significance testing when a strong theoretical framework guides the selection of model sets. Theoretically relevant ‘ordinary businesses’ have a greater influence on robbery than socioeconomic variables and most measures of discretionary businesses

Imprisonment and labor market outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment

Because of racially disproportionate imprisonment rates, the literature on mass incarceration has focused on the labor market consequence of imprisonment and the implications of those effects for racial inequality. Yet, the effects of imprisonment itself, as distinct from conviction, are not well understood. The authors leverage a natural experiment based on the random assignment of judges to felony cases in Michigan to examine the causal effect of being sentenced to prison as compared to probation, stratifying by race and work history. The most widespread effect of imprisonment on employment occurs through incapacitation in prison, both for the initial prison sentence and through the heightened risk of subsequent imprisonment. Negative postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment, employment stability, and employment outside the secondary labor market are concentrated among whites with a presentence work history. Postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment among those with no work history are positive but fade over time

Imprisonment and labor market outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment

Because of racially disproportionate imprisonment rates, the literature on mass incarceration has focused on the labor market consequence of imprisonment and the implications of those effects for racial inequality. Yet, the effects of imprisonment itself, as distinct from conviction, are not well understood. The authors leverage a natural experiment based on the random assignment of judges to felony cases in Michigan to examine the causal effect of being sentenced to prison as compared to probation, stratifying by race and work history. The most widespread effect of imprisonment on employment occurs through incapacitation in prison, both for the initial prison sentence and through the heightened risk of subsequent imprisonment. Negative postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment, employment stability, and employment outside the secondary labor market are concentrated among whites with a presentence work history. Postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment among those with no work history are positive but fade over time

Plea Bargaining: The Influence of Counsel

For the criminal defendant, his attorney acts as his loyal and zealous advocate before the court (American Bar Association, 2015), and due process protections of the U.S. adversarial system have afforded this relationship special privilege. In this chapter, we explore the influence and role of the attorney in plea decision making. We first explore the legal context of the attorney’s role in plea bargaining, reviewing several cases that address a defendant’s right to effective assistance of counsel. We then review the shadow of trial theory and other theoretical perspectives as they relate to the attorney’s role in the plea-bargaining process, providing a theoretical background to understand how the attorney’s advice and role likely influence a defendant’s decision to accept a guilty plea offer. Then, we discuss the research examining legal and extra-legal factors that influence the type of advice an attorney gives a client contemplating a guilty plea offer, considering the implications of this research for the current standards used to define effective assistance of counsel. Last, we explore future research possibilities that could contribute to the understanding of the role the attorney plays in the plea-bargaining process