Vegetation greenness in northeastern Brazil and its relation to ENSO warm events

The spatio-temporal variability of trends in vegetation greenness in dryland areas is a well-documented phenomenon in remote sensing studies at global to regional scales. The underlying causes differ, however, and are often not well understood. Here, we analyzed the trends in vegetation greenness for a semi-arid area in northeastern Brazil (NEB) and examined the relationships between those dynamics and climate anomalies, namely the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the period 1982 to 2010, based on annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from the latest version of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI dataset (NDVI3g) dataset. Against the ample assumption of ecological and socio-economic research, the results of our inter-annual trend analysis of NDVI and precipitation indicate large areas of significant greening in the observation period. The spatial extent and strength of greening is a function of the prevalent land-cover type or biome in the study area. The regression analysis of ENSO indicators and NDVI anomalies reveals a close relation of ENSO warm events and periods of reduced vegetation greenness, with a temporal lag of 12 months. The spatial patterns of this relation vary in space and time. Thus, not every ENSO warm event is reflected in negative NDVI anomalies. Xeric shrublands (Caatinga) are more sensitive to ENSO teleconnections than other biomes in the study area.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Blitzaufkommen im Freistaat Sachsen

Sachsen gehört zu den gewitter- und blitzreichsten Regionen Deutschlands. Durchschnittlich werden hier etwa 3,5 Blitze pro km² und Jahr gemessen (in Thüringen etwa 1,5 Blitze). Gewitter und Blitzaktivitäten bergen hohe Risiken für Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Bedeutend sind dabei die Stromstärke, die Anzahl der Blitze und Begleiterscheinungen wie Hagel, Windböen oder Starkregen. Die Studie umfasste eine grundlegenden Analyse der Blitzaktivitäten in Sachsen. Die Beobachtungsdaten seit 1999 belegen Trends zur Zunahme der Blitzhäufigkeit pro Tag und den Einfluss westlicher, südwestlicher und südlicher Anströmungen auf die Blitzaktivität. Für den Beobachtungszeitraum werden hohe jährliche Variabilitäten aufgezeigt. Offenkundige Zusammenhänge zwischen Blitzaktivität und Landnutzung bzw. Klimaparametern sind bisher nicht erkennbar. Für die Zukunft ist aber die Beeinflussung der Gewitterhäufigkeit durch die Erwärmung der Atmosphäre nicht auszuschließen

Biomass estimation to support pasture management in Niger

Livestock plays a central economic role in Niger, but it is highly vulnerable due to the high inter-annual variability of rain and hence pasture production. This study aims to develop an approach for mapping pasture biomass production to support activities of the Niger Ministry of Livestock for effective pasture management. Our approach utilises the observed spatiotemporal variability of biomass production to build a predictive model based on ground and remote sensing data for the period 1998–2012. Measured biomass (63 sites) at the end of the growing season was used for the model parameterisation. The seasonal cumulative Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (CFAPAR), calculated from 10-day image composites of SPOT-VEGETATION FAPAR, was computed as a phenology-tuned proxy of biomass production. A linear regression model was tested aggregating field data at different levels (global, department, agro-ecological zone, and intersection of agro-ecological and department units) and subjected to a cross validation (cv) by leaving one full year out. An increased complexity (i.e. spatial detail) of the model increased the estimation performances indicating the potential relevance of additional and spatially heterogeneous agro-ecological characteristics for the relationship between herbaceous biomass at the end of the season and CFAPAR. The model using the department aggregation yielded the best trade-off between model complexity and predictive power (R2 = 0.55, R2cv = 0.48). The proposed approach can be used to timely produce maps of estimated biomass at the end of the growing season before ground point measurements are made available.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Phenology-Based Biomass Estimation to Support Rangeland Management in Semi-Arid Environments

Livestock plays an important economic role in Niger, especially in the semi-arid regions, while being highly vulnerable as a result of the large inter-annual variability of precipitation and, hence, rangeland production. This study aims to support effective rangeland management by developing an approach for mapping rangeland biomass production. The observed spatiotemporal variability of biomass production is utilised to build a model based on ground and remote sensing data for the period 2001 to 2015. Once established, the model can also be used to estimate herbaceous biomass for the current year at the end of the season without the need for new ground data. The phenology-based seasonal cumulative Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (cNDVI), computed from 10-day image composites of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data, was used as proxy for biomass production. A linear regression model was fitted with multi-annual field measurements of herbaceous biomass at the end of the growing season. In addition to a general model utilising all available sites for calibration, different aggregation schemes (i.e., grouping of sites into calibration units) of the study area with a varying number of calibration units and different biophysical meaning were tested. The sampling sites belonging to a specific calibration unit of a selected scheme were aggregated to compute the regression. The different aggregation schemes were evaluated with respect to their predictive power. The results gathered at the different aggregation levels were subjected to cross-validation (cv), applying a jackknife technique (leaving out one year at a time). In general, the model performance increased with increasing model parameterization, indicating the importance of additional unobserved and spatially heterogeneous agro-ecological effects (which might relate to grazing, species composition, optical soil properties, etc.) in modifying the relationship between cNDVI and herbaceous biomass at the end of the season. The biophysical aggregation scheme, the calibration units for which were derived from an unsupervised ISODATA classification utilising 10-day NDVI images taken between January 2001 and December 2015, showed the best performance in respect to the predictive power (R2cv = 0.47) and the cross-validated root-mean-square error (398 kg·ha−1) values, although it was not the model with the highest number of calibration units. The proposed approach can be applied for the timely production of maps of estimated biomass at the end of the growing season before field measurements are made available. These maps can be used for the improved management of rangeland resources, for decisions on fire prevention and aid allocation, and for the planning of more in-depth field missions

Estimating dry biomass and plant nitrogen concentration in pre-Alpine grasslands with low-cost UAS-borne multispectral data – a comparison of sensors, algorithms, and predictor sets

Grasslands are an important part of pre-Alpine and Alpine landscapes. Despite the economic value and the significant role of grasslands in carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling, spatially explicit information on grassland biomass and quality is rarely available. Remotely sensed data from unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) and satellites might be an option to overcome this gap. Our study aims to investigate the potential of low-cost UAS-based multispectral sensors for estimating above-ground biomass (dry matter, DM) and plant N concentration. In our analysis, we compared two different sensors (Parrot Sequoia, SEQ; MicaSense RedEdge-M, REM), three statistical models (linear model; random forests, RFs; gradient-boosting machines, GBMs), and six predictor sets (i.e. different combinations of raw reflectance, vegetation indices, and canopy height). Canopy height information can be derived from UAS sensors but was not available in our study. Therefore, we tested the added value of this structural information with in situ measured bulk canopy height data. A combined field sampling and flight campaign was conducted in April 2018 at different grassland sites in southern Germany to obtain in situ and the corresponding spectral data. The hyper-parameters of the two machine learning (ML) approaches (RF, GBM) were optimized, and all model setups were run with a 6-fold cross-validation. Linear models were characterized by very low statistical performance measures, thus were not suitable to estimate DM and plant N concentration using UAS data. The non-linear ML algorithms showed an acceptable regression performance for all sensor–predictor set combinations with average (avg; cross-validated, cv) R2cv of 0.48, RMSEcv,avg of 53.0 g m2, and rRMSEcv,avg (relative) of 15.9 % for DM and with R2cv, avg of 0.40, RMSEcv,avg of 0.48 wt %, and rRMSEcv, avg of 15.2 % for plant N concentration estimation. The optimal combination of sensors, ML algorithms, and predictor sets notably improved the model performance. The best model performance for the estimation of DM (R2cv=0.67, RMSEcv=41.9 g m2, rRMSEcv=12.6 %) was achieved with an RF model that utilizes all possible predictors and REM sensor data. The best model for plant N concentration was a combination of an RF model with all predictors and SEQ sensor data (R2cv=0.47, RMSEcv=0.45 wt %, rRMSEcv=14.2 %). DM models with the spectral input of REM performed significantly better than those with SEQ data, while for N concentration models, it was the other way round. The choice of predictors was most influential on model performance, while the effect of the chosen ML algorithm was generally lower. The addition of canopy height to the spectral data in the predictor set significantly improved the DM models. In our study, calibrating the ML algorithm improved the model performance substantially, which shows the importance of this step

Investigating the relationship between the inter-annual variability of satellite-derived vegetation phenology and a proxy of biomass production in the Sahel

In the Sahel region, moderate to coarse spatial resolution remote sensing time series are used in early warning monitoring systems with the aim of detecting unfavorable crop and pasture conditions and informing stakeholders about impending food security risks. Despite growing evidence that vegetation productivity is directly related to phenology, most approaches to estimate such risks do not explicitly take into account the actual timing of vegetation growth and development. The date of the start of the season (SOS) or of the peak canopy density can be assessed by remote sensing techniques in a timely manner during the growing season. However, there is limited knowledge about the relationship between vegetation biomass production and these variables at regional scale. This study describes a first attempt to increase our understanding of such a relationship through the analysis of phenological variables retrieved from SPOT-VEGETATION time series of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR). Two key phenological variables (growing season length, GSL; timing of SOS) and the maximum value of FAPAR attained during the growing season (Peak) are analyzed as potentially related to a proxy of biomass production (CFAPAR, the cumulative value of FAPAR during the growing season). GSL, SOS and Peak all show different spatial patterns of correlation with CFAPAR. In particular, GSL shows a high and positive correlation with CFAPAR over the whole Sahel (mean r = 0.78). The negative correlation between delays in SOS and CFAPAR is stronger (mean r = -0.71) in the southern agricultural band of the Sahel, while the positive correlation between Peak FAPAR and CFAPAR is higher in the northern and more arid grassland region (mean r = 0.75). The consistency of the results and the actual link between remote-sensing derived phenological parameters and biomass production were evaluated using field measurements of aboveground herbaceous biomass of rangelands in Senegal. This study demonstrates the potential of phenological variables as indicators of biomass production. Nevertheless, the strength of the relation between phenological variables and biomass production is not universal and indeed quite variable geographically, with large scattered areas not showing a statistically significant relationship.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

High land-use intensity diminishes stability of forage provision of mountain pastures under future climate variability

Semi-natural, agriculturally used grasslands provide important ecologic and economic services, such as feed supply. In mountain regions, pastures are the dominant agricultural system and face more severe climate change impacts than lowlands. Climate change threatens ecosystem functions, such as aboveground net primary production [ANPP] and its nutrient content. It is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change and land-management on such ecosystems to develop management practices to sustainably maintain provision of ecosystem services under future climatic conditions. We studied the effect of climate change and different land-use intensities on plant-soil communities by the downslope translocation of plant-soil mesocosms along an elevation gradient in 2016, and the subsequent application of two management types (extensive vs. intensive). Communities’ response to ANPP and leaf carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) content was quantified over the subsequent two years after translocation. ANPP increased with warming in 2017 under both management intensities, but this effect was amplified by intensive land-use management. In 2018, ANPP of intensively managed communities decreased, in comparison to 2017, from 35% to 42%, while extensively managed communities maintained their production levels. The changes in ANPP are coupled with an exceptionally dry year in 2018, with up to 100 more days of drought conditions. The C:N of extensively managed communities was higher than those of intensively managed ones, and further increased in 2018, potentially indicating shifts in resource allocation strategies that may explain production stability. Our results revealed a low resistance of intensively managed communities’ ANPP under especially dry conditions. The ability to alter resource allocation likely enables a constant level of production under extensive management, but this ability is lost under intensive management. Thus, future drought events may leave intensive management as a non-sustainable farming practice, and ultimately threaten ecosystem services of montane pastures