Geographic profiling in Nazi Berlin: fact and fiction

Geographic profiling uses the locations of connected crime sites to make inferences about the probable location of the offender’s ‘anchor point’ (usually a home, but sometimes a workplace). We show how the basic ideas of the method were used in a Gestapo investigation that formed the basis of a classic German novel about domestic resistance to the Nazis during the Second World War. We use modern techniques to re-analyse this case, and show that these successfully locate the Berlin home address of Otto and Elise Hampel, who had distributed hundreds of anti-Nazi postcards, after analysing just 34 of the 214 incidents that took place before their arrest. Our study provides the first empirical evidence to support the suggestion that analysis of minor terrorism-related acts such as graffiti and theft could be used to help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur

Spatial targeting of infectious disease control: identifying multiple, unknown sources

non compliant version, depositor contacte

Big grains go far: Understanding the discrepancy between tephrochronology and satellite infrared measurements of volcanic ash

There is a large discrepancy between the size of volcanic ash particles measured on the ground at least 500 km from their source volcano (known as cryptotephra) and those reported by satellite remote sensing (effective radius of 0.5-9 I1/4m; 95% of particles reff plateaus at around 9 I1/4m. Assuming Mie scattering by dense spheres when interpreting satellite infrared brightness temperature difference (BTD) data puts an upper limit on retrieved particle sizes. If larger, irregularly shaped ash grains can also produce a BTD effect, this will result in further underestimation of grain size, e.g. in coarse ash clouds close to a volcano

Development of the Knowledge of Genome Sequencing (KOGS) questionnaire

OBJECTIVE: Whole-genome sequencing is being implemented in research and clinical care, yet tools to assess patients' knowledge are lacking. Our aim was to develop a robust measure of whole-genome sequencing knowledge suitable for patients and other stakeholders including research participants, public, students, and healthcare professionals. METHODS: An initial set of 17 items was developed via an iterative process including literature review, expert consultation, focus groups, and cognitive interviews with patients, and then administered to 243 individuals. We used exploratory factor analysis and item-response theory to confirm the psychometric suitability of the candidate items for assessing whole-genome sequencing knowledge. RESULTS: There was a strong main component after removing 5 items with low factor loadings. Item and scale homogeneity was achieved using Mokken scale analysis. Three further items were removed because they were misfits, inverse duplicates or resulted in local dependency. The remaining nine items fitted the two-parameter logistic IRT model which achieved excellent fit to the observed data. Cronbach's alpha was 0.79 indicating acceptable reliability. CONCLUSION: The KOGS, developed using a rigorous psychometric approach, is a brief and reliable tool. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: The KOGS may prove useful for researchers and healthcare professionals using whole-genome sequencing with patients and other stakeholders