Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Whole-Body Hypothermia, Cerebral Magnetic Resonance Biomarkers, and Outcomes in Neonates With Moderate or Severe Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy Born at Tertiary Care Centers vs Other Facilities: A Nested Study Within a Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: The association between place of birth and hypothermic neuroprotection after hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the association between place of birth and the efficacy of whole-body hypothermia for protection against brain injury measured by magnetic resonance (MR) biomarkers among neonates born at a tertiary care center (inborn) or other facilities (outborn). Design, Setting, and PARTICIPANTS: This nested cohort study within a randomized clinical trial involved neonates at 7 tertiary neonatal intensive care units in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh between August 15, 2015, and February 15, 2019. A total of 408 neonates born at or after 36 weeks' gestation with moderate or severe HIE were randomized to receive whole-body hypothermia (reduction of rectal temperatures to between 33.0 °C and 34.0 °C; hypothermia group) for 72 hours or no whole-body hypothermia (rectal temperatures maintained between 36.0 °C and 37.0 °C; control group) within 6 hours of birth, with follow-up until September 27, 2020. Exposure: 3T MR imaging, MR spectroscopy, and diffusion tensor imaging. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Thalamic N-acetyl aspartate (NAA) mmol/kg wet weight, thalamic lactate to NAA peak area ratios, brain injury scores, and white matter fractional anisotropy at 1 to 2 weeks and death or moderate or severe disability at 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Among 408 neonates, the mean (SD) gestational age was 38.7 (1.3) weeks; 267 (65.4%) were male. A total of 123 neonates were inborn and 285 were outborn. Inborn neonates were smaller (mean [SD], 2.8 [0.5] kg vs 2.9 [0.4] kg; P = .02), more likely to have instrumental or cesarean deliveries (43.1% vs 24.7%; P = .01), and more likely to be intubated at birth (78.9% vs 29.1%; P = .001) than outborn neonates, although the rate of severe HIE was not different (23.6% vs 17.9%; P = .22). Magnetic resonance data from 267 neonates (80 inborn and 187 outborn) were analyzed. In the hypothermia vs control groups, the mean (SD) thalamic NAA levels were 8.04 (1.98) vs 8.31 (1.13) among inborn neonates (odds ratio [OR], -0.28; 95% CI, -1.62 to 1.07; P = .68) and 8.03 (1.89) vs 7.99 (1.72) among outborn neonates (OR, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.62 to 0.71; P = .89); the median (IQR) thalamic lactate to NAA peak area ratios were 0.13 (0.10-0.20) vs 0.12 (0.09-0.18) among inborn neonates (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96-1.08; P = .59) and 0.14 (0.11-0.20) vs 0.14 (0.10-0.17) among outborn neonates (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.98-1.09; P = .18). There was no difference in brain injury scores or white matter fractional anisotropy between the hypothermia and control groups among inborn or outborn neonates. Whole-body hypothermia was not associated with reductions in death or disability, either among 123 inborn neonates (hypothermia vs control group: 34 neonates [58.6%] vs 34 [56.7%]; risk ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.76-1.41), or 285 outborn neonates (hypothermia vs control group: 64 neonates [46.7%] vs 60 [43.2%]; risk ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.83-1.41). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this nested cohort study, whole-body hypothermia was not associated with reductions in brain injury after HIE among neonates in South Asia, irrespective of place of birth. These findings do not support the use of whole-body hypothermia for HIE among neonates in LMICs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02387385

Modifiable risk factors remain significant causes of medium term mortality after first time Coronary artery bypass grafting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whilst there is much current data on early outcomes after Coronary artery bypass grafting(CABG), there is relatively little data on medium term outcomes in the current era. The purpose of this study is to present a single surgeon series comprising of all first time CABG patients operated on with the technique of cross clamp fibrillation from Feb-1996 to through to Jan-2003, and to seek risk factors for medium term mortality in these patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected from Hospital Episode Statistics and departmental patient administration and tracking systems and cross checked using database techniques. Patient outcomes were searched using the National Health Service strategic tracing service.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean follow up was 5.3 years(0–9.4 years) and was complete for all patients. 30-day survival was 98.4%, 1-year survival 95% and 8-year survival 79%. Cox-regression analysis revealed that several modifiable pre-operative risk factors remain significant predictors of medium term mortality, including Diabetes(Hazard Ratio(HR) 1.73, 95%CI 1.21–2.45), Chromic obstructive pulmonary disease(HR 2.02, 95%CI 1.09–3.72), Peripheral vascular disease(HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.13–2.5), Body mass index>30(HR 1.54, 95%CI 1.08–2.20) and current smoker at operation(HR 1.67, 95%CI 1.03–2.72). However hypertension(HR 1.31, 95%CI 0.95–1.82) and Hypercholestrolaemia(HR 0.81, 95%CI 0.58–1.13) were not predictive which may reflect adequate post-operative control.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Coronary artery bypass surgery using cross clamp fibrillation is associated with a very low operative mortality. Medium term survival is also good but risk factors such as smoking at operation, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity and diabetes negatively impact this survival and should be aggressively treated in the years post-surgery.</p

Genetic Interaction Maps in Escherichia coli Reveal Functional Crosstalk among Cell Envelope Biogenesis Pathways

As the interface between a microbe and its environment, the bacterial cell envelope has broad biological and clinical significance. While numerous biosynthesis genes and pathways have been identified and studied in isolation, how these intersect functionally to ensure envelope integrity during adaptive responses to environmental challenge remains unclear. To this end, we performed high-density synthetic genetic screens to generate quantitative functional association maps encompassing virtually the entire cell envelope biosynthetic machinery of Escherichia coli under both auxotrophic (rich medium) and prototrophic (minimal medium) culture conditions. The differential patterns of genetic interactions detected among >235,000 digenic mutant combinations tested reveal unexpected condition-specific functional crosstalk and genetic backup mechanisms that ensure stress-resistant envelope assembly and maintenance. These networks also provide insights into the global systems connectivity and dynamic functional reorganization of a universal bacterial structure that is both broadly conserved among eubacteria (including pathogens) and an important target

Adult Neurogenesis Transiently Generates Oxidative Stress

An increasing body of evidence suggests that alterations in neurogenesis and oxidative stress are associated with a wide variety of CNS diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease, schizophrenia and Parkinson’s disease, as well as routine loss of function accompanying aging. Interestingly, the association between neurogenesis and the production of reactive oxidative species (ROS) remains largely unexamined. The adult CNS harbors two regions of persistent lifelong neurogenesis: the subventricular zone and the dentate gyrus (DG). These regions contain populations of quiescent neural stem cells (NSCs) that generate mature progeny via rapidly-dividing progenitor cells. We hypothesized that the energetic demands of highly proliferative progenitors generates localized oxidative stress that contributes to ROS-mediated damage within the neuropoietic microenvironment. In vivo examination of germinal niches in adult rodents revealed increases in oxidized DNA and lipid markers, particularly in the subgranular zone (SGZ) of the dentate gyrus. To further pinpoint the cell types responsible for oxidative stress, we employed an in vitro cell culture model allowing for the synchronous terminal differentiation of primary hippocampal NSCs. Inducing differentiation in primary NSCs resulted in an immediate increase in total mitochondria number and overall ROS production, suggesting oxidative stress is generated during a transient window of elevated neurogenesis accompanying normal neurogenesis. To confirm these findings in vivo, we identified a set of oxidation-responsive genes, which respond to antioxidant administration and are significantly elevated in genetic- and exercise-induced model of hyperactive hippocampal neurogenesis. While no direct evidence exists coupling neurogenesis-associated stress to CNS disease, our data suggest that oxidative stress is produced as a result of routine adult neurogenesis

Lower Expression of TLR2 and SOCS-3 Is Associated with Schistosoma haematobium Infection and with Lower Risk for Allergic Reactivity in Children Living in a Rural Area in Ghana

Inflammatory diseases such as atopic disorders are a major health problem in the Western world, but their prevalence is also increasing in developing countries, especially in urban centres. There is increasing evidence that exposure to a rural environment with high burden of compounds derived from parasites and microorganisms is associated with protection from atopic disorders. Since urbanisation is progressing at a rapid pace, particularly in less-developed nations, there is a need to understand the molecular processes that control the progress towards the development of allergic diseases in developing countries. In this study we have examined a population of school children living in a rural area of Ghana, where helminth (worm) infections are prevalent and associated with protection from skin reactivity to house dust mite. Blood samples were collected from these children and analysed for the expression levels of several genes involved in the development of a pro allergic immune system. The results point at a potential molecular link that might explain the negative association between schistosome infections and allergies

Enriched Monolayer Precursor Cell Cultures from Micro-Dissected Adult Mouse Dentate Gyrus Yield Functional Granule Cell-Like Neurons

BACKGROUND: Stem cell cultures are key tools of basic and applied research in Regenerative Medicine. In the adult mammalian brain, lifelong neurogenesis originating from local precursor cells occurs in the neurogenic regions of the hippocampal dentate gyrus. Despite widespread interest in adult hippocampal neurogenesis and the use of mouse models to study it, no protocol existed for adult murine long-term precursor cell cultures with hippocampus-specific differentiation potential. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We describe a new strategy to obtain serum-free monolayer cultures of neural precursor cells from microdissected dentate gyrus of adult mice. Neurons generated from these adherent hippocampal precursor cell cultures expressed the characteristic markers like transcription factor Prox1 and showed the TTX-sensitive sodium currents of mature granule cells in vivo. Similar to granule cells in vivo, treatment with kainic acid or brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) elicited the expression of GABAergic markers, further supporting the correspondence between the in vitro and in vivo phenotype. When plated as single cells (in individual wells) or at lowest density for two to three consecutive generations, a subset of the cells showed self-renewal and gave rise to cells with properties of neurons, astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. The precursor cell fate was sensitive to culture conditions with their phenotype highly influenced by factors within the media (sonic hedgehog, BMP, LIF) and externally applied growth factors (EGF, FGF2, BDNF, and NT3). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We report the conditions required to generate adult murine dentate gyrus precursor cell cultures and to analyze functional properties of precursor cells and their differentiated granule cell-like progeny in vitro