Anchoring climate change communications

Verbal probability expressions (VPEs) are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change attempts to standardise the use and interpretation of these expressions through a translation scale of numerical ranges to VPEs. A common issue in interpreting VPEs is the tendency for individuals to interpret VPEs around the mid-point of the scale (i.e., around 50%). Previous research has shown that compliance with the IPCC’s standards can be improved if the numerical translation is presented simultaneously with the VPE, reducing the regressiveness of interpretations. We show that an explicit statement of the lower or upper bound implied by the expression (e.g., 0-33%; 66-100%) leads to better differentiated estimates of the probability implied by ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ than when the bound is not explicitly identified (e.g., less than 33%; greater than 66%)

Review of the reverse innovation series in globalization and health - where are we and what else is needed?

Following advances in industrial strategy and organizational behaviour, as well as post-development debates in international relations, Globalization and Health launched the Reverse Innovation series in 2012, in order to forge an agenda to promote not just the innovativeness of low-income country health systems but to recognize current and advocate for future strengthened knowledge flow between the global south and global north. It was considered to be a timely antidote to a knowledge flow that has traditionally been characterised by unidirectionality of innovation and expertise. Since then, the series provides a repository of research, theory, commentary and debate through which a collective community of practice in Reverse Innovation might emerge and provide an evidence base to promote, support and mainstream this type of knowledge flow. In this Commentary, we review the series as a whole, explore what has been learnt and what needs to come next in terms of empirical research, business models, processes and theoretical contributions to inform reverse innovation

Superradiance by mini black holes with mirror

The superradiant scattering of massive scalar particles by a rotating mini black hole is investigated. Imposing the mirror boundary condition, the system becomes the so called black-hole bomb where the rotation energy of the black hole is transferred to the scattered particle exponentially with time. Bulk emissions as well as brane emissions are considered altogether. It is found that the largest effects are expected for the brane emission of lower angular modes with lighter mass and larger angular momentum of the black hole. Possibilities of the forming the black-hole bomb at the LHC are discussed.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, 7 tables. More discussions. To appear in JHE

High Dengue Case Capture Rate in Four Years of a Cohort Study in Nicaragua Compared to National Surveillance Data

Dengue is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions; however, under-reporting of cases to national surveillance systems hinders accurate knowledge of disease burden and costs. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases identified through the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) were compared to those reported from other health facilities in Managua to the National Epidemiologic Surveillance (NES) program of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health. Compared to reporting among similar pediatric populations in Managua, the PDCS identified 14 to 28 (average 21.3) times more dengue cases each year per 100,000 persons than were reported to the NES. Applying these annual expansion factors to national-level data, we estimate that the incidence of confirmed pediatric dengue throughout Nicaragua ranged from 300 to 1000 cases per 100,000 persons. We have estimated a much higher incidence of dengue than reported by the Ministry of Health. A country-specific expansion factor for dengue that allows for a more accurate estimate of incidence may aid governments and other institutions calculating disease burden, costs, resource needs for prevention and treatment, and the economic benefits of drug and vaccine development

CtGEM typing: Discrimination of Chlamydia trachomatis ocular and urogenital strains and major evolutionary lineages by high resolution melting analysis of two amplified DNA fragments

© 2018 Giffard et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Chlamydia trachomatis infects the urogenital tract (UGT) and eyes. Anatomical tropism is correlated with variation in the major outer membrane protein encoded by ompA. Strains possessing the ocular ompA variants A, B, Ba and C are typically found within the phyloge-netically coherent “classical ocular lineage”. However, variants B, Ba and C have also been found within three distinct strains in Australia, all associated with ocular disease in children and outside the classical ocular lineage. CtGEM genotyping is a method for detecting and discriminating ocular strains and also the major phylogenetic lineages. The rationale was facilitation of surveillance to inform responses to C. trachomatis detection in UGT specimens from young children. CtGEM typing is based on high resolution melting analysis (HRMA) of two PCR amplified fragments with high combinatorial resolving power, as defined by computerised comparison of 65 whole genomes. One fragment is from the hypothetical gene defined by Jali-1891 in the C. trachomatis B_Jali20 genome, while the other is from ompA. Twenty combinatorial CtGEM types have been shown to exist, and these encompass unique genotypes for all known ocular strains, and also delineate the TI and T2 major phylogenetic lineages, identify LGV strains and provide additional resolution beyond this. CtGEM typing and Sanger sequencing were compared with 42 C. trachomatis positive clinical specimens, and there were no disjunctions. CtGEM typing is a highly efficient method designed and tested using large scale comparative genomics. It divides C. trachomatis into clinically and biologically meaningful groups, and may have broad application in surveillance

Distributions of charged massive scalars and fermions from evaporating higher-dimensional black holes

A detailed numerical analysis is performed to obtain the Hawking spectrum for charged, massive brane scalars and fermions on the approximate background of a brane charged rotating higher-dimensional black hole constructed in arXiv:0907.5107. We formulate the problem in terms of a "spinor-like" first order system of differential wave equations not only for fermions, but for scalars as well and integrate it numerically. Flux spectra are presented for non-zero mass, charge and rotation, confirming and extending previous results based on analytic approximations. In particular we describe an inverted charge splitting at low energies, which is not present in four or five dimensions and increases with the number of extra dimensions. This provides another signature of the evaporation of higher-dimensional black holes in TeV scale gravity scenarios.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, minor typos corrected, 1 page added with a discussion on higher spins, added reference

The antisaccade task as an index of sustained goal activation in working memory: modulation by nicotine

The antisaccade task provides a laboratory analogue of situations in which execution of the correct behavioural response requires the suppression of a more prepotent or habitual response. Errors (failures to inhibit a reflexive prosaccade towards a sudden onset target) are significantly increased in patients with damage to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and patients with schizophrenia. Recent models of antisaccade performance suggest that errors are more likely to occur when the intention to initiate an antisaccade is insufficiently activated within working memory. Nicotine has been shown to enhance specific working memory processes in healthy adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We explored the effect of nicotine on antisaccade performance in a large sample (N = 44) of young adult smokers. Minimally abstinent participants attended two test sessions and were asked to smoke one of their own cigarettes between baseline and retest during one session only. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Nicotine reduced antisaccade errors and correct antisaccade latencies if delivered before optimum performance levels are achieved, suggesting that nicotine supports the activation of intentions in working memory during task performance. The implications of this research for current theoretical accounts of antisaccade performance, and for interpreting the increased rate of antisaccade errors found in some psychiatric patient groups are discussed

Theoretical survey of tidal-charged black holes at the LHC

We analyse a family of brane-world black holes which solve the effective four-dimensional Einstein equations for a wide range of parameters related to the unknown bulk/brane physics. We first constrain the parameters using known experimental bounds and, for the allowed cases, perform a numerical analysis of their time evolution, which includes accretion through the Earth. The study is aimed at predicting the typical behavior one can expect if such black holes were produced at the LHC. Most notably, we find that, under no circumstances, would the black holes reach the (hazardous) regime of Bondi accretion. Nonetheless, the possibility remains that black holes live long enough to escape from the accelerator (and even from the Earth's gravitational field) and result in missing energy from the detectors.Comment: RevTeX4, 12 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables, minor changes to match the accepted version in JHE

Neoliberalisation and 'lad cultures' in higher education

This paper links HE neoliberalisation and ‘lad cultures’, drawing on interviews and focus groups with women students. We argue that retro-sexist ‘laddish’ forms of masculine competitiveness and misogyny have been reshaped by neoliberal rationalities to become modes of consumerist sexualised audit. We also suggest that neoliberal frameworks scaffold an individualistic and adversarial culture among young people that interacts with perceived threats to men’s privilege and intensifies attempts to put women in their place through misogyny and sexual harassment. Furthermore, ‘lad cultures’, sexism and sexual harassment in higher education may be invisibilised by institutions to preserve marketability in a neoliberal context. In response, we ask if we might foster dialogue and partnership between feminist and anti-marketisation politics